Dataset Information

A Bayesian state-space model using age-at-harvest data for estimating the population of black bears (Ursus americanus) in Wisconsin.

ABSTRACT: Population estimation is essential for the conservation and management of fish and wildlife, but accurate estimates are often difficult or expensive to obtain for cryptic species across large geographical scales. Accurate statistical models with manageable financial costs and field efforts are needed for hunted populations and using age-at-harvest data may be the most practical foundation for these models. Several rigorous statistical approaches that use age-at-harvest and other data to accurately estimate populations have recently been developed, but these are often dependent on (a) accurate prior knowledge about demographic parameters of the population, (b) auxiliary data, and (c) initial population size. We developed a two-stage state-space Bayesian model for a black bear (Ursus americanus) population with age-at-harvest data, but little demographic data and no auxiliary data available, to create a statewide population estimate and test the sensitivity of the model to bias in the prior distributions of parameters and initial population size. The posterior abundance estimate from our model was similar to an independent capture-recapture estimate from tetracycline sampling and the population trend was similar to the catch-per-unit-effort for the state. Our model was also robust to bias in the prior distributions for all parameters, including initial population size, except for reporting rate. Our state-space model created a precise estimate of the black bear population in Wisconsin based on age-at-harvest data and potentially improves on previous models by using little demographic data, no auxiliary data, and not being sensitive to initial population size.

SUBMITTER: Allen ML

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6102245 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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A Bayesian state-space model using age-at-harvest data for estimating the population of black bears (Ursus americanus) in Wisconsin.

Allen Maximilian L ML Norton Andrew S AS Stauffer Glenn G Roberts Nathan M NM Luo Yanshi Y Li Qing Q MacFarland David D Van Deelen Timothy R TR

Scientific reports 20180820 1

Population estimation is essential for the conservation and management of fish and wildlife, but accurate estimates are often difficult or expensive to obtain for cryptic species across large geographical scales. Accurate statistical models with manageable financial costs and field efforts are needed for hunted populations and using age-at-harvest data may be the most practical foundation for these models. Several rigorous statistical approaches that use age-at-harvest and other data to accurate ...[more]

PMID: 30127405

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Project description:American black bears (Ursus americanus) are seasonally polyoestrous and exhibit delayed implantation, which may allow equal and independent fertility of recurrent oestruses of a mating season. We postulated that the luteal inactivity during delayed implantation allows bears to have sequential ovulation during a polyoestrous mating season such that each oestrus of a polyoestrous female will have equivalent fertility, and pregnancy would not preclude subsequent ovulation and superfetation. Controlled mating experiments were conducted on semi-free-ranging female American black bears during three mating seasons, wherein females were bred by different male cohorts in each oestrus. Behavioural observation, vulva score ranking, genetic paternity analysis, gross morphology of ovaries and microscopic morphology of diapaused embryos were used to evaluate the fertility of each subsequent oestrus in polyoestrous females. Oestrus duration, number of successful mounts and median vulva scores were similar between first and subsequent oestruses of the season. Polyoestrus occurred in 81.3% of oestrous females, with a 9.7?±?5.5 day (mean?±?SD) inter-oestrous interval. Sequential ovulation was documented in three polyoestrous females, including one that possessed both a corpus haemorrhagicum and a developed corpus luteum. Among polyoestrous dams, four of nine embryos were conceived in the first oestrus and five of nine in the second oestrus. These results indicate that each oestrus of polyoestrous females is capable of fertility, even if the female is already pregnant from a prior oestrus. Although superfetation was not directly observed in the present study, our results strongly suggest the potential of superfetation in the American black bear and provide novel insight into the complex behavioural and physiological breeding mechanisms of bears. Given that most endangered bear species share similar reproductive traits with American black bears, captive breeding programmes could take advantage of superfetation by mating females with different males at each subsequent oestrus of the season in order to increase the genetic diversity of captive endangered bears.

Dataset Information

A Bayesian state-space model using age-at-harvest data for estimating the population of black bears (Ursus americanus) in Wisconsin.

Publications

A Bayesian state-space model using age-at-harvest data for estimating the population of black bears (Ursus americanus) in Wisconsin.

Similar Datasets

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