Dataset Information

The Ability of a Single BMD and Fracture History Assessment to Predict Fracture Over 25 Years in Postmenopausal Women: The Study of Osteoporotic Fractures.

ABSTRACT: The ability of bone mineral density (BMD) and other risk factors to predict fracture risk is well-established for as long as 5 to 10 years. However, their value to predict risk over a longer term has not been directly studied. We investigated whether a single assessment of femoral neck BMD and fracture history can predict fracture risk over 20 to 25 years. We used data from the Study of Osteoporotic Fractures (SOF) that assessed BMD and risk factors in 7959 women age ?67 (mean?=?73.4) in 1988-1990. Follow-up for fractures continued for 25 years for hip fracture, and for 20 years for any nonvertebral fracture. Using age-adjusted proportional hazards models, we analyzed the relationships between a single baseline assessment of femoral neck BMD, fracture history and age, and 20-25-year fracture incidence. The 25-year cumulative incidence of hip fracture was 17.9%; 20-year incidence of any nonvertebral fracture was 46.2%. The 25-year hip fracture incidence was highest in those ?80 years old (22.6%) compared to 13.9% in women aged <70 years. A single femoral neck BMD measurement strongly predicted long-term hip fracture risk to 25 years: 29.6% risk in the lowest BMD quartile versus 7.6% with the highest relative hazard (RH)?=?4.9 (95% CI, 4.1 to 6.0). Femoral neck BMD predicted hip fracture with little degradation over time from RH/SD?=?2.6 (2.2 to 3.0) for 0 to 5 years to RH/SD?=?1.8 (1.4 to 2.4) for 20 to 25 years. Lifetime hip fracture risk was similar (?30%) regardless of age from 67 to >80 years. History of hip fracture predicted hip fractures only slightly better than history of nonvertebral fracture (RH?=?1.6 [95% CI, 1.1 to 2.2] versus RH?=?1.4 [95% CI, 1.2 to 1.5], respectively). Fracture history remained strongly predictive up to 25 years. We conclude that a single BMD and fracture history assessment can predict fracture risk over 20 to 25 years. Long-term risk of hip fracture remains extremely high in the oldest age groups, supporting risk assessment and consideration of treatment even in the oldest, highest-risk women.© 2017 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

SUBMITTER: Black DM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6103616 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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The Ability of a Single BMD and Fracture History Assessment to Predict Fracture Over 25 Years in Postmenopausal Women: The Study of Osteoporotic Fractures.

Black Dennis M DM Cauley Jane A JA Wagman Rachel R Ensrud Kristine K Fink Howard A HA Hillier Teresa A TA Lui Li-Yung LY Cummings Steven R SR Schousboe John T JT Napoli Nicola N

Journal of bone and mineral research : the official journal of the American Society for Bone and Mineral Research 20170718 3

The ability of bone mineral density (BMD) and other risk factors to predict fracture risk is well-established for as long as 5 to 10 years. However, their value to predict risk over a longer term has not been directly studied. We investigated whether a single assessment of femoral neck BMD and fracture history can predict fracture risk over 20 to 25 years. We used data from the Study of Osteoporotic Fractures (SOF) that assessed BMD and risk factors in 7959 women age ≥67 (mean = 73.4) in 1988-19 ...[more]

PMID: 28719727

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Project description:Using data from the Study of Osteoporotic Fractures (SOF), several clinical characteristics predictive of near-term (1-year) risk of hip and non-vertebral fracture among elderly osteoporotic women were identified, and a subset of those for hip fracture was incorporated into a risk assessment tool. Additional research is needed to validate study findings.IntroductionWhile several risk factors are known to contribute to long-term fracture risk in women with osteoporosis, factors predicting fracture risk over a shorter time horizon, such as over a 1-year period, are less well-established.MethodsWe utilized a repeated-observations design and data from the Study of Osteoporotic Fractures to identify factors contributing to near-term risk of hip fracture and any non-vertebral fracture, respectively, among osteoporotic women aged ?65 years. Potential predictors of hip fracture and any non-vertebral fracture over the 1-year period subsequent to each qualifying SOF exam were examined using multivariable frailty models. Because the discriminative ability of the hip fracture model was acceptable, a corresponding risk-prediction tool was also developed.ResultsStudy population included 2499 women with osteoporosis, who contributed 6811 observations. Incidence of fracture in the 1-year period subsequent to each exam was 2.2% for hip fracture and 6.6% for any non-vertebral fracture. Independent predictors of hip fracture included low total hip T-score, prior fracture, and risk factors for falls (multivariable model c-statistic = 0.71 (95% CI 0.67-0.76)). Independent predictors of any non-vertebral fracture included age, total hip T-score, prior falls, prior fracture, walking speed, Parkinson's disease or stroke, and smoking (multivariable model c-statistic = 0.62 (0.59-0.65)).ConclusionsSeveral clinical characteristics predictive of hip and non-vertebral fracture within a 1-year follow-up period among elderly women with osteoporosis were identified, and a subset of those for hip fracture was incorporated into a risk assessment tool. Assessment of these risk factors may help guide osteoporosis treatment choices by identifying patients in whom there is urgency to treat. Additional research is needed to validate the findings of this study and the accuracy of the risk assessment tool.

Project description:Over the past two decades, a low frequency variant (rs1800012) within the first intron of the type I collagen alpha 1 (COLIA1) gene has been implicated in lower areal BMD (aBMD) and increased risk of osteoporotic fracture. This association is particularly strong in postmenopausal women, in whom net bone loss arises in the context of high bone turnover. High bone turnover also accompanies childhood linear growth; however, the role of rs1800012 in this stage of net bone accretion is less well understood. Thus, we assessed the association between rs1800012 and aBMD and bone mineral content (BMC) Z-scores for the 1/3 distal radius, lumbar spine, total hip, and femoral neck total body less head in the Bone Mineral Density in Childhood Study, a mixed-longitudinal cohort of children and adolescents (total n = 804 girls and 771 boys; n = 19 girls and 22 boys with the TT genotype). Mixed effects modeling, stratified by sex, was used to test for associations between rs1800012 and aBMD or BMC Z-scores and for pubertal stage interactions. Separately, SITAR growth modeling of aBMD and BMC in subjects with longitudinal data reduced the complex longitudinal bone accrual curves into three parameters representing a-size, b-timing, and c-velocity. We tested for differences in these three parameters by rs1800012 genotype using t-tests. Girls with the TT genotype had significantly lower aBMD and BMC Z-scores prior to puberty completion (e.g. spine aBMD-Z P-interaction = 1.0 × 10-6), but this association was attenuated post-puberty. SITAR models revealed that TT girls began pubertal bone accrual later (b-timing; e.g. total hip BMC, P = 0.03). BMC and aBMD Z-scores also increased across puberty in TT homozygous boys. Our data, along with previous findings in post-menopausal women, suggest that rs1800012 principally affects female bone density during periods of high turnover. Insights into the genetics of bone gain and loss may be masked during the relatively quiescent state in mid-adulthood, and discovery efforts should focus on early and late life.

Project description:Dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA)-derived appendicular lean mass/height2 (ALM/ht2 ) is the most commonly used estimate of muscle mass in the assessment of sarcopenia, but its predictive value for fracture is substantially attenuated by femoral neck (fn) bone mineral density (BMD). We investigated predictive value of 11 sarcopenia definitions for incident fracture, independent of fnBMD, fracture risk assessment tool (FRAX® ) probability, and prior falls, using an extension of Poisson regression in US, Sweden, and Hong Kong Osteoporois Fractures in Men Study (MrOS) cohorts. Definitions tested were those of Baumgartner and Delmonico (ALM/ht2 only), Morley, the International Working Group on Sarcopenia, European Working Group on Sarcopenia in Older People (EWGSOP1 and 2), Asian Working Group on Sarcopenia, Foundation for the National Institutes of Health (FNIH) 1 and 2 (using ALM/body mass index [BMI], incorporating muscle strength and/or physical performance measures plus ALM/ht2 ), and Sarcopenia Definitions and Outcomes Consortium (gait speed and grip strength). Associations were adjusted for age and time since baseline and reported as hazard ratio (HR) for first incident fracture, here major osteoporotic fracture (MOF; clinical vertebral, hip, distal forearm, proximal humerus). Further analyses adjusted additionally for FRAX-MOF probability (n = 7531; calculated ± fnBMD), prior falls (y/n), or fnBMD T-score. Results were synthesized by meta-analysis. In 5660 men in USA, 2764 Sweden and 1987 Hong Kong (mean ages 73.5, 75.4, and 72.4 years, respectively), sarcopenia prevalence ranged from 0.5% to 35%. Sarcopenia status, by all definitions except those of FNIH, was associated with incident MOF (HR = 1.39 to 2.07). Associations were robust to adjustment for prior falls or FRAX probability (without fnBMD); adjustment for fnBMD T-score attenuated associations. EWGSOP2 severe sarcopenia (incorporating chair stand time, gait speed, and grip strength plus ALM) was most predictive, albeit at low prevalence, and appeared only modestly influenced by inclusion of fnBMD. In conclusion, the predictive value for fracture of sarcopenia definitions based on ALM is reduced by adjustment for fnBMD but strengthened by additional inclusion of physical performance measures. © 2021 The Authors. Journal of Bone and Mineral Research published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Society for Bone and Mineral Research (ASBMR).

Dataset Information

The Ability of a Single BMD and Fracture History Assessment to Predict Fracture Over 25 Years in Postmenopausal Women: The Study of Osteoporotic Fractures.

Publications

The Ability of a Single BMD and Fracture History Assessment to Predict Fracture Over 25 Years in Postmenopausal Women: The Study of Osteoporotic Fractures.

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