Dataset Information

Trends in smoking initiation in Europe over 40 years: A retrospective cohort study.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Tobacco consumption is the largest avoidable health risk. Understanding changes of smoking over time and across populations is crucial to implementing health policies. We evaluated trends in smoking initiation between 1970 and 2009 in random samples of European populations.

Methods

We pooled data from six multicentre studies involved in the Ageing Lungs in European Cohorts consortium, including overall 119,104 subjects from 17 countries (range of median ages across studies: 33-52 years). We estimated retrospectively trends in the rates of smoking initiation (uptake of regular smoking) by age group, and tested birth cohort effects using Age-Period-Cohort (APC) modelling. We stratified all analyses by sex and region (North, East, South, West Europe).

Results

Smoking initiation during late adolescence (16-20 years) declined for both sexes and in all regions (except for South Europe, where decline levelled off after 1990). By the late 2000s, rates of initiation during late adolescence were still high (40-80 per 1000/year) in East, South, and West Europe compared to North Europe (20 per 1000/year). Smoking initiation rates during early adolescence (11-15 years) showed a marked increase after 1990 in all regions (except for North European males) but especially in West Europe, where they reached 40 per 1000/year around 2005. APC models supported birth cohort effects in the youngest cohorts.

Conclusion

Smoking initiation is still unacceptably high among European adolescents, and increasing rates among those aged 15 or less deserve attention. Reducing initiation in adolescents is fundamental, since youngsters are particularly vulnerable to nicotine addiction and tobacco adverse effects.

SUBMITTER: Marcon A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6104979 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Similar Datasets

Project description:BackgroundBreast cancer incidence rates are increasing among Asian women, likely due to the changes in risk factors caused by globalization. Trends in breast cancer rates among Chinese women may differ from other Asian regions due to the implementation of a nationwide family planning program and resulting changes in women's reproductive practices. Appraisal of cancer trends can direct cancer control and public health planning, but relevant studies in China are scarce due to a lack of long-term data. We sought to evaluate secular time trends in breast cancer incidence and mortality using 40 years of cancer registry data for women in urban Shanghai.Materials and methodsData on invasive breast cancer incidence and mortality were collected by the Shanghai Cancer Registry. Age-standardized rates (ASRs) for incidence and mortality were calculated using the Segi/Doll 1960 world standard population. Age, period, and birth cohort effects were evaluated using age-period-cohort (APC) Poisson regression models. Overall linear trends, interpreted as the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC), were derived from the net drift in age-drift models.ResultsA total of 53 885 breast cancer cases and 17 235 breast cancer-specific deaths were documented among women in urban Shanghai between 1 January 1973 and 31 December 2012. Breast cancer incidence and mortality ASRs increased by 141.2% and 26.6%, respectively. Significant age, cohort, and period effects were identified in both incidence and mortality APC models; cohort effects were pronounced. Overall, a substantial increase in breast cancer incidence (EAPC = 2.96%/year) and a moderate increase in breast cancer mortality (EAPC = 0.87%/year) was observed. A notable downward trend in mortality was identified among younger women born after 1960.ConclusionsForty years of cancer registry data document a tremendous increase in incidence and a slight increase in mortality for breast cancer among women in Shanghai. Effective, appropriate, and affordable breast cancer prevention and control strategies are urgently needed in China.

Project description:BackgroundData from population-based studies investigating trends in environmental factors associated with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is lacking. We aimed to assess long-term time trends of environmental and socioeconomic factors in IBD patients from a well-defined population-based cohort from Veszprem, Hungary.MethodsPatients were included between 1 January 1977, and 31 December 2020. Trends of environmental and socioeconomic factors were evaluated in three periods based on the decade of diagnosis, representing different therapeutic eras: cohort-A,1977-1995; cohort-B,1996-2008 (immunomodulator era); and cohort-C, 2009-2020 (biological era).ResultsA total of 2240 incident patients with IBD were included (ulcerative colitis (UC) 61.2%, male 51.2%, median age at diagnosis: 35 years (IQR 29-49)). Rates of active smoking significantly decreased over time in Crohn's disease (CD): 60.2%, 49.9%, and 38.6% in cohorts A/B/C (p < 0.001). In UC, the rates were low and stable: 15.4%, 15.4%, and 14.5% in cohorts A/B/C (p = 0.981). Oral contraceptive use was more common in CD compared to UC (25.0% vs. 11.6%, p < 0.001). In UC, prevalence of appendectomy before diagnosis decreased over time: 6.4%, 5.5%, and 2.3% in cohorts A/B/C (p = 0.013). No significant changes were found in the socio-geographic characteristics of the IBD population (urban living: UC, 59.8%/64.8%/ 62.5% (p = 0.309) and CD, 62.5%/ 62.0%/ 59.0% (p = 0.636), in cohorts A/B/C). A greater percentage of patients had completed secondary school as the highest education level in later cohorts in both UC (42.9%/50.2%/51.6%, p < 0.001) and CD (49.2%/51.7%/59.5%, p = 0.002). A higher percentage of skilled workers (34.4%/36.2%/38.9%, p = 0.027) was found in UC, but not in CD (p = 0.454).ConclusionThe association between trends of known environmental factors and IBD is complex. Smoking has become less prevalent in CD, but no other major changes occurred in socioeconomic factors over the last four decades that could explain the sharp increase in IBD incidence.

Project description:OBJECTIVE:To assess temporal trends in the association between newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation and death. DESIGN:Community based cohort study. SETTING:Framingham Heart Study cohort, in 1972-85, 1986-2000, and 2001-15 (periods 1-3, respectively), in Framingham, MA, USA. PARTICIPANTS:Participants with no atrial fibrillation, aged 45-95 in each time period, and identified with newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation (or atrial flutter) during each time period. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES:The main outcome was all cause mortality. Hazard ratios for the association between time varying atrial fibrillation and all cause mortality were calculated with adjustment for time varying confounding factors. The difference in restricted mean survival times, adjusted for confounders, between participants with atrial fibrillation and matched referents at 10 years after a diagnosis of atrial fibrillation was estimated. Meta-regression was used to test for linear trends in hazard ratios and restricted mean survival times over the different time periods. RESULTS:5671 participants were selected in time period 1, 6177 in period 2, and 6174 in period 3. Adjusted hazard ratios for all cause mortality between participants with and without atrial fibrillation were 1.9 (95% confidence interval 1.7 to 2.2) in time period 1, 1.4 (1.3 to 1.6) in period 2, and 1.7 (1.5 to 2.0) in period 3 (Ptrend=0.70). Ten years after diagnosis of atrial fibrillation, the adjusted difference in restricted mean survival times between participants with atrial fibrillation and matched referents decreased by 31%, from -2.9 years (95% confidence interval -3.2 to -2.5) in period 1, to -2.1 years (-2.4 to -1.8) in period 2, to -2.0 years (-2.3 to -1.7) in period 3 (Ptrend=0.03). CONCLUSIONS:No evidence of a temporal trend in hazard ratios for the association between atrial fibrillation and all cause mortality was found. The mean number of life years lost to atrial fibrillation at 10 years had improved significantly, but a two year gap compared with individuals without atrial fibrillation still remained.

Project description:AimsInitiating smoking in early adolescence results in challenges with smoking cessation and is associated with high risk of cardiovascular disease. Recently, the initiation of smoking has transitioned from adolescence to young adulthood. However, there are few reports on the impact of initiating smoking at a later age. This study investigated the impact of the age of smoking initiation on nicotine dependency, smoking cessation rates, and cardiovascular risk factors, using a cut-off point of 20 years, within the Japanese population.Methods and resultsThis retrospective cohort study encompassed 1382 smokers who sought smoking cessation treatment at Kyoto Medical Centre Hospital between 2007 and 2019. Clinical indicators were evaluated by adjusting for age at the time of hospital visit and sex. The smoking cessation rate was further adjusted for treatment medication. The group with a smoking initiation age of <20 years reported a higher number of cigarettes/day (P = 0.002), higher respiratory carbon monoxide levels (P < 0.001), a higher Fagerström Test for Nicotine Dependence (FTND) score (P < 0.001), and a higher Self-rating Depression Scale score (P = 0.014). They also reported lower diastolic blood pressure (P = 0.020) and a lower successful smoking cessation rate [odds ratio: 0.736, 95% confidence interval (0.569, 0.951)] than the group with a smoking initiation age of ≥20 years. When smokers were divided into four groups based on the age they started smoking, the FTND score for those who started at 20-21 years was significantly higher than the score for those who started at 22 years or older.ConclusionIn young adulthood, initiating smoking later (beyond 20 years old) was associated with lower nicotine dependency and fewer depressive tendencies, as well as a higher success rate in smoking cessation among Japanese smokers. The results might suggest that raising the legal smoking initiation age from 20 to 22 years old or older could be effective in reducing nicotine dependency in smokers.

Project description:Abundance-occupancy (A-O) relationships are widely documented for many organismal groups and regions, and have been used to gain an understanding of regional population and community trends. Monitoring changes in abundance and occupancy over time may be what is required to document changes in conservation status and needs for some species, communities, or areas.We hypothesize that if there is a higher proportion of declining species in one group of species compared with another (e.g., migratory species vs. permanent residents), then a consequence of that difference will be vastly different abundance-occupancy relationships. If this difference persists through time, then the resulting A-O relationships between the groups will continue to diverge.For neotropical migrants, short-distance migrants, and permanent resident birds of North America, we assess the numbers of declining species over 1969-2009. We further test for differences in the A-O relationship across these three groups, and in rates of change in abundance and occupancy separately.We find significant differences in numbers of declining species across the migratory groups, a significant decline in the A-O relationship for permanent residents, a significant increase for Neotropical migrants, and a nonsignificant decline for short-distance migrants over the 40 years. Further, abundances are not changing at different rates but occupancies are consistently greater over time for neotropical migrants versus permanent residents, likely driving the changes in A-O relationships observed.In these analyses, we documented changing A-O trends for different groups of species, over a relatively long time period for ecological studies, one of only a few studies to examine A-O relationships over time. Further, we have shown that a temporally unvarying abundance-occupancy relationship is not universal, and we posit that variability in A-O relationships is due to human impacts on habitats, coupled with variation in species' abilities to respond to human impacts.