Dataset Information

Validation of Plasma Biomarker Candidates for the Prediction of eGFR Decline in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes.

ABSTRACT:

Objective

The decline of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) in patients with type 2 diabetes is variable, and early interventions would likely be cost-effective. We elucidated the contribution of 17 plasma biomarkers to the prediction of eGFR loss on top of clinical risk factors.

Research design and methods

We studied participants in PROVALID (PROspective cohort study in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus for VALIDation of biomarkers), a prospective multinational cohort study of patients with type 2 diabetes and a follow-up of more than 24 months (n = 2,560; baseline median eGFR, 84 mL/min/1.73 m²; urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio, 8.1 mg/g). The 17 biomarkers were measured at baseline in 481 samples using Luminex and ELISA. The prediction of eGFR decline was evaluated by linear mixed modeling.

Results

In univariable analyses, 9 of the 17 markers showed significant differences in median concentration between stable and fast-progressing patients. A linear mixed model for eGFR obtained by variable selection exhibited an adjusted R² of 62%. A panel of 12 biomarkers was selected by the procedure and accounted for 34% of the total explained variability, of which 32% was due to 5 markers. The individual contribution of each biomarker to the prediction of eGFR decline on top of clinical predictors was generally low. When included into the model, baseline eGFR exhibited the largest explained variability of eGFR decline (R² of 79%), and the contribution of each biomarker dropped below 1%.

Conclusions

In this longitudinal study of patients with type 2 diabetes and maintained eGFR at baseline, 12 of the 17 candidate biomarkers were associated with eGFR decline, but their predictive power was low.

SUBMITTER: Heinzel A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6105325 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Validation of Plasma Biomarker Candidates for the Prediction of eGFR Decline in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes.

Heinzel Andreas A Kammer Michael M Mayer Gert G Reindl-Schwaighofer Roman R Hu Karin K Perco Paul P Eder Susanne S Rosivall Laszlo L Mark Patrick B PB Ju Wenjun W Kretzler Matthias M Gilmour Peter P Wilson Jonathan M JM Duffin Kevin L KL Abdalla Moustafa M McCarthy Mark I MI Heinze Georg G Heerspink Hiddo L HL Wiecek Andrzej A Gomez Maria F MF Oberbauer Rainer R

Diabetes care 20180706 9

<h4>Objective</h4>The decline of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) in patients with type 2 diabetes is variable, and early interventions would likely be cost-effective. We elucidated the contribution of 17 plasma biomarkers to the prediction of eGFR loss on top of clinical risk factors.<h4>Research design and methods</h4>We studied participants in PROVALID (PROspective cohort study in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus for VALIDation of biomarkers), a prospective multinational coho ...[more]

PMID: 29980527

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Project description:BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES:Biomarkers may improve identification of individuals at risk of eGFR decline who may benefit from intervention or dialysis planning. However, available biomarkers remain incompletely validated for risk stratification and prediction modeling. DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, & MEASUREMENTS:We examined serum cystatin C, urinary kidney injury molecule-1 (uKIM-1), and urinary neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (UNGAL) in 5367 individuals with type 2 diabetes mellitus and recent acute coronary syndromes enrolled in the Examination of Cardiovascular Outcomes with Alogliptin versus Standard of Care (EXAMINE) trial. Baseline concentrations and 6-month changes in biomarkers were also evaluated. Cox proportional regression was used to assess associations with a 50% decrease in eGFR, stage 5 CKD (eGFR<15 ml/min per 1.73 m2), or dialysis. RESULTS:eGFR decline occurred in 98 patients (1.8%) over a median of 1.5 years. All biomarkers individually were associated with higher risk of eGFR decline (P<0.001). However, when adjusting for baseline eGFR, proteinuria, and clinical factors, only baseline cystatin C (adjusted hazard ratio per 1 SD change, 1.66; 95% confidence interval, 1.41 to 1.96; P<0.001) and 6-month change in urinary neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (adjusted hazard ratio per 1 SD change, 1.07; 95% confidence interval, 1.02 to 1.12; P=0.004) independently associated with CKD progression. A base model for predicting kidney function decline with nine standard risk factors had strong discriminative ability (C-statistic 0.93). The addition of baseline cystatin C improved discrimination (C-statistic 0.94), but it failed to reclassify risk categories of individuals with and without eGFR decline. CONCLUSIONS:The addition of cystatin C or biomarkers of tubular injury did not meaningfully improve the prediction of eGFR decline beyond common clinical factors and routine laboratory data in a large cohort of patients with type 2 diabetes and recent acute coronary syndrome. PODCAST:This article contains a podcast at https://www.asn-online.org/media/podcast/CJASN/2018_01_16_CJASNPodcast_18_3_G.mp3.

Project description:Aims/hypothesisWe examined whether candidate biomarkers in serum or urine can improve the prediction of renal disease progression in type 1 diabetes beyond prior eGFR, comparing their performance with urinary albumin/creatinine ratio (ACR).MethodsFrom the population-representative Scottish Diabetes Research Network Type 1 Bioresource (SDRNT1BIO) we sampled 50% and 25% of those with starting eGFR below and above 75 ml min-1 [1.73 m]-2, respectively (N = 1629), and with median 5.1 years of follow-up. Multiplexed ELISAs and single molecule array technology were used to measure nine serum biomarkers and 13 urine biomarkers based on our and others' prior work using large discovery and candidate studies. Associations with final eGFR and with progression to <30 ml min-1 [1.73] m-2, both adjusted for baseline eGFR, were tested using linear and logistic regression models. Parsimonious biomarker panels were identified using a penalised Bayesian approach, and their performance was evaluated through tenfold cross-validation and compared with using urinary ACR and other clinical record data.ResultsSeven serum and seven urine biomarkers were strongly associated with either final eGFR or progression to <30 ml min-1 [1.73 m]-2, adjusting for baseline eGFR and other covariates (all at p<2.3 × 10-3). Of these, associations of four serum biomarkers were independent of ACR for both outcomes. The strongest associations with both final eGFR and progression to <30 ml min-1 [1.73 m]-2 were for serum TNF receptor 1, kidney injury molecule 1, CD27 antigen, α-1-microglobulin and syndecan-1. These serum associations were also significant in normoalbuminuric participants for both outcomes. On top of baseline covariates, the r2 for prediction of final eGFR increased from 0.702 to 0.743 for serum biomarkers, and from 0.702 to 0.721 for ACR alone. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for progression to <30 ml min-1 [1.73 m]-2 increased from 0.876 to 0.953 for serum biomarkers, and to 0.911 for ACR alone. Other urinary biomarkers did not outperform ACR.Conclusions/interpretationA parsimonious panel of serum biomarkers easily measurable along with serum creatinine may outperform ACR for predicting renal disease progression in type 1 diabetes, potentially obviating the need for urine testing.

Project description:BackgroundThe KidneyIntelX™ test applies a machine learning algorithm that incorporates plasma biomarkers and clinical variables to produce a composite risk score to predict a progressive decline in kidney function in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D) and early-stage chronic kidney disease (CKD). The following studies describe the analytical validation of the KidneyIntelX assay including impact of observed methodologic variability on the composite risk score.MethodsAnalytical performance studies of sensitivity, precision, and linearity were performed on three biomarkers assayed in multiplexed format: kidney injury molecule-1 (KIM-1), soluble tumor necrosis factor receptor-1 (sTNFR-1) and soluble tumor necrosis factor receptor-2 (sTNFR-2) based on Clinical Laboratory Standards Institute (CLSI) guidelines. Analytical variability across twenty (20) experiments across multiple days, operators, and reagent lots was assessed to examine the impact on the reproducibility of the composite risk score. Analysis of cross-reactivity and interfering substances was also performed.ResultsAssays for KIM-1, sTNFR-1 and sTNFR-2 demonstrated acceptable sensitivity. Mean within-laboratory imprecision coefficient of variation (CV) was established as less than 9% across all assays in a multi-lot study. The linear range of the assays was determined as 12-5807 pg/mL, 969-23,806 pg/mL and 4256-68,087 pg/mL for KIM-1, sTNFR-1 and sTNFR-2, respectively. The average risk score CV% was less than 5%, with 98% concordance observed for assignment of risk categories. Cross-reactivity between critical assay components in a multiplexed format did not exceed 1.1%.ConclusionsThe set of analytical validation studies demonstrated robust analytical performance across all three biomarkers contributing to the KidneyIntelX risk score, meeting or exceeding specifications established during characterization studies. Notably, reproducibility of the composite risk score demonstrated that expected analytical laboratory variation did not impact the assigned risk category, and therefore, the clinical validity of the reported results.

Dataset Information

Validation of Plasma Biomarker Candidates for the Prediction of eGFR Decline in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes.

Objective

Research design and methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Validation of Plasma Biomarker Candidates for the Prediction of eGFR Decline in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes.

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