Dataset Information

Assessing the resilience of stochastic dynamic systems under partial observability.

ABSTRACT: Resilience is a property of major interest for the design and analysis of generic complex systems. A system is resilient if it can adjust in response to disruptive shocks, and still provide the services it was designed for, without interruptions. In this work, we adapt a formal definition of resilience for constraint-based systems to a probabilistic framework derived from hidden Markov models. This allows us to more realistically model the stochastic evolution and partial observability of many complex real-world environments. Within this framework, we propose an efficient and exact algorithm for the inference queries required to construct generic property checking. We show that the time complexity of this algorithm is on par with other state-of-the-art inference queries for similar frameworks (that is, linear with respect to the time horizon). We also provide considerations on the specific complexity of the probabilistic checking of resilience and its connected properties, with particular focus on resistance. To demonstrate the flexibility of our approach and to evaluate its performance, we examine it in four qualitative and quantitative example scenarios: (1) disaster management and damage assessment; (2) macroeconomics; (3) self-aware, reconfigurable computing for aerospace applications; and (4) connectivity maintenance in robotic swarms.

SUBMITTER: Panerati J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6107160 | biostudies-literature | 2018

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Assessing the resilience of stochastic dynamic systems under partial observability.

Panerati Jacopo J Schwind Nicolas N Zeltner Stefan S Inoue Katsumi K Beltrame Giovanni G

PloS one 20180823 8

Resilience is a property of major interest for the design and analysis of generic complex systems. A system is resilient if it can adjust in response to disruptive shocks, and still provide the services it was designed for, without interruptions. In this work, we adapt a formal definition of resilience for constraint-based systems to a probabilistic framework derived from hidden Markov models. This allows us to more realistically model the stochastic evolution and partial observability of many c ...[more]

PMID: 30138373

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Project description:The brain integrates streams of sensory input and builds accurate predictions, while arriving at stable percepts under disparate time scales. This stochastic process bears different unfolding dynamics for different people, yet statistical learning (SL) currently averages out, as noise, individual fluctuations in data streams registered from the brain as the person learns. We here adopt a new analytical approach that instead of averaging out fluctuations in continuous electroencephalographic (EEG)-based data streams, takes these gross data as the important signals. Our new approach reassesses how individuals dynamically learn predictive information in stable and unstable environments. We find neural correlates for two types of learners in a visuomotor task: narrow-variance learners, who retain explicit knowledge of the regularity embedded in the stimuli. They seem to use an error-correction strategy steadily present in both stable and unstable environments. This strategy can be captured by current optimization-based computational frameworks. In contrast, broad-variance learners emerge only in the unstable environment. Local analyses of the moment-by-moment fluctuations, naïve to the overall outcome, reveal an initial period of memoryless learning, well characterized by a continuous gamma process starting out exponentially distributed whereby all future events are equally probable, with high signal (mean) to noise (variance) ratio. The empirically derived continuous Gamma process smoothly converges to predictive Gaussian signatures comparable to those observed for the error-corrective mode that is captured by current optimization-driven computational models. We coin this initially seemingly purposeless stage exploratory. Globally, we examine a posteriori the fluctuations in distributions' shapes over the empirically estimated stochastic signatures. We then confirm that the exploratory mode of those learners, free of expectation, random and memoryless, but with high signal, precedes the acquisition of the error-correction mode boasting smooth transition from exponential to symmetric distributions' shapes. This early naïve phase of the learning process has been overlooked by current models driven by expected, predictive information and error-based learning. Our work demonstrates that (statistical) learning is a highly dynamic and stochastic process, unfolding at different time scales, and evolving distinct learning strategies on demand.

Dataset Information

Assessing the resilience of stochastic dynamic systems under partial observability.

Publications

Assessing the resilience of stochastic dynamic systems under partial observability.

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