Dataset Information

Regional disparities in warm season rainfall changes over arid eastern-central Asia.

ABSTRACT: Multiple studies have reported a shift in the trend of warm season rainfall over arid eastern-central Asia (AECA) around the turn of the new century, from increasing over the second half of the twentieth century to decreasing during the early years of the twenty-first. Here, a closer look based on multiple precipitation datasets reveals important regional disparities in these changes. Warm-season rainfall increased over both basin areas and mountain ranges during 1961-1998 due to enhanced moisture flux convergence associated with changes in the large-scale circulation and increases in atmospheric moisture content. Despite a significant decrease in warm-season precipitation over the high mountain ranges after the year 1998, warm season rainfall has remained large over low-lying basin areas. This discrepancy, which is also reflected in changes in river flow, soil moisture, and vegetation, primarily results from disparate responses to enhanced warming in the mountain and basin areas of AECA. In addition to changes in the prevailing circulation and moisture transport patterns, the decrease in precipitation over the mountains has occurred mainly because increases in local water vapor saturation capacity (which scales with temperature) have outpaced the available moisture supply, reducing relative humidity and suppressing precipitation. By contrast, rainfall over basin areas has been maintained by accelerated moisture recycling driven by rapid glacier retreat, snow melt, and irrigation expansion. This trend is unsustainable and is likely to reverse as these cryospheric buffers disappear, with potentially catastrophic implications for local agriculture and ecology.

SUBMITTER: Dong W

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6115426 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Regional disparities in warm season rainfall changes over arid eastern-central Asia.

Dong Wenhao W Dong Wenhao W Lin Yanluan Y Wright Jonathon S JS Xie Yuanyu Y Ming Yi Y Zhang Han H Chen Rensheng R Chen Yaning Y Xu Fanghua F Xu Fanghua F Lin Namei N Yu Chaoqing C Zhang Bin B Jin Shuang S Yang Kun K Li Zhongqin Z Guo Jianping J Wang Lei L Lin Guanghui G

Scientific reports 20180829 1

Multiple studies have reported a shift in the trend of warm season rainfall over arid eastern-central Asia (AECA) around the turn of the new century, from increasing over the second half of the twentieth century to decreasing during the early years of the twenty-first. Here, a closer look based on multiple precipitation datasets reveals important regional disparities in these changes. Warm-season rainfall increased over both basin areas and mountain ranges during 1961-1998 due to enhanced moistu ...[more]

PMID: 30158578

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Project description:BackgroundThe temperature in arid Eastern Central Asia is projected to increase in the future, accompanied by increased variability of precipitation. To investigate the impacts of climate change on plant species in this area, we selected two widespread species as candidates, Clematis sibirica and C. songorica, from montane coniferous forest and arid steppe habitats respectively.Methodology/principal findingsWe employed a combined approach of molecular phylogeography and species distribution modelling (SDM) to predict the future responses of these two species to climate change, utilizing evidence of responses from the past. Genetic data for C. sibirica shows a significant phylogeographical signal (N ST > F ST, P<0.05) and demographic contraction during the glacial-interglacial cycles in the Pleistocene. This forest species would likely experience range reduction, though without genetic loss, in the face of future climate change. In contrast, SDMs predict that C. songorica, a steppe species, should maintain a consistently stable potential distribution under the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and the future climatic conditions referring to its existing potential distribution. Molecular results indicate that the presence of significant phylogeographical signal in this steppe species is rejected and this species contains a high level of genetic differentiation among populations in cpDNA, likely benefiting from stable habitats over a lengthy time period.Conclusions/significanceEvidence from the molecular phylogeography of these two species, the forest species is more sensitive to past climate changes than the steppe species. SDMs predict that the forest species will face the challenge of potential range contraction in the future more than the steppe species. This provides a perspective on ecological management in arid Eastern Central Asia, indicating that increased attention should be paid to montane forest species, due to their high sensitivity to disturbance.

Dataset Information

Regional disparities in warm season rainfall changes over arid eastern-central Asia.

Publications

Regional disparities in warm season rainfall changes over arid eastern-central Asia.

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