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The impact of pharmaceutical innovation on premature cancer mortality in Canada, 2000-2011.

ABSTRACT: The premature cancer mortality rate has been declining in Canada, but there has been considerable variation in the rate of decline across cancer sites. I analyze the effect that pharmaceutical innovation had on premature cancer mortality in Canada during the period 2000-2011, by investigating whether the cancer sites that experienced more pharmaceutical innovation had larger declines in the premature mortality rate, controlling for changes in the incidence rate. Premature mortality before age 75 is significantly inversely related to the cumulative number of drugs registered at least 10 years earlier. Since mean utilization of drugs that have been marketed for less than 10 years is only one-sixth as great as mean utilization of drugs that have been marketed for at least a decade, it is not surprising that premature mortality is strongly inversely related only to the cumulative number of drugs that had been registered at least ten years earlier. Premature mortality before age 65 and 55 is also strongly inversely related to the cumulative number of drugs that had been registered at least ten years earlier. None of the estimates of the effect of incidence on mortality are statistically significant. Controlling for the cumulative number of drugs, the cumulative number of chemical subgroups does not have a statistically significant effect on premature mortality. This suggests that drugs (chemical substances) within the same class (chemical subgroup) are not therapeutically equivalent. During the period 2000-2011, the premature (before age 75) cancer mortality rate declined by about 9 %. The estimates imply that, in the absence of pharmaceutical innovation during the period 1985-1996, the premature cancer mortality rate would have increased about 12 % during the period 2000-2011. A substantial decline in the "competing risk" of death from cardiovascular disease could account for this. The estimates imply that pharmaceutical innovation during the period 1985-1996 reduced the number of years of potential life lost to cancer before age 75 in 2011 by 105,366. The cost per life-year before age 75 gained from previous pharmaceutical innovation is estimated to have been 2730 USD. Most of the previously-registered drugs were off-patent by 2011, but evidence suggests that, even if these drugs had been sold at branded rather than generic prices, the cost per life-year gained would have been below 11,000 USD, a figure well below even the lowest estimates of the value of a life-year gained. The largest reductions in premature mortality occur at least a decade after drugs are registered, when their utilization increases significantly. This suggests that, if Canada is to obtain substantial additional reductions in premature cancer mortality in the future (a decade or more from now) at a modest cost, pharmaceutical innovation (registration of new drugs) is needed today.

SUBMITTER: Lichtenberg FR

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6116915 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:ObjectivesHealth region differences in immigration patterns and premature mortality rates exist in Ontario, Canada. This study used linked population-based databases to describe the regional proportion of immigrants in the context of provincial health region variation in premature mortality.MethodsWe analyzed all adult premature deaths in Ontario from 1992 to 2012 using linked population files, Canadian census, and death registry databases. Geographic boundaries were analyzed according to 14 health service regions, known as Local Health Integration Networks (LHINs). We assessed the role of immigrant status and regional proportion of immigrants in the context of these health region variations and assessed the contribution using sex-specific multilevel negative binomial models, accounting for age, individual- and area-level immigration, and area-level material deprivation.ResultsWe observed significant premature mortality variation among health service regions in Ontario between 1992 and 2012. Average annual rates ranged across LHINs from 3.03 to 6.40 per 1000 among males and 2.04 to 3.98 per 1000 among females. The median rate ratio (RR) decreased for men from 1.14 (95% CI 1.06, 1.19) to 1.07 (95% CI 1.00, 1.11) after adjusting for year, age, area-based material deprivation, and individual- and area-level immigration, and among females reduced from 1.13 (95% CI 1.05, 1.18) to 1.04 (95% CI 1.00, 1.05). These adjustments explained 84.1% and 94.4% of the LHIN-level variation in males and females respectively. Reduced premature mortality rates were associated with immigrants compared with those for long-term residents in the fully adjusted models for both males 0.43 (95% CI 0.42, 0.44) and females 0.45 (0.44, 0.46).ConclusionThe findings demonstrate that health region differences in premature mortality in Ontario are in part explained by individual-level effects associated with the health advantage of immigrants, as well as contextual area-level effects that are associated with regional differences in the immigrant population. These factors should be considered in addition to health system factors when looking at health region variation in premature deaths.

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The impact of pharmaceutical innovation on premature cancer mortality in Canada, 2000-2011.

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