Dataset Information

On the Nature of Evidence and 'Proving' Causality: Smoking and Lung Cancer vs. Sun Exposure, Vitamin D and Multiple Sclerosis.

ABSTRACT: If environmental exposures are shown to cause an adverse health outcome, reducing exposure should reduce the disease risk. Links between exposures and outcomes are typically based on 'associations' derived from observational studies, and causality may not be clear. Randomized controlled trials to 'prove' causality are often not feasible or ethical. Here the history of evidence that tobacco smoking causes lung cancer-from observational studies-is compared to that of low sun exposure and/or low vitamin D status as causal risk factors for the autoimmune disease, multiple sclerosis (MS). Evidence derives from in vitro and animal studies, as well as ecological, case-control and cohort studies, in order of increasing strength. For smoking and lung cancer, the associations are strong, consistent, and biologically plausible-the evidence is coherent or 'in harmony'. For low sun exposure/vitamin D as risk factors for MS, the evidence is weaker, with smaller effect sizes, but coherent across a range of sources of evidence, and biologically plausible. The association is less direct-smoking is directly toxic and carcinogenic to the lung, but sun exposure/vitamin D modulate the immune system, which in turn may reduce the risk of immune attack on self-proteins in the central nervous system. Opinion about whether there is sufficient evidence to conclude that low sun exposure/vitamin D increase the risk of multiple sclerosis, is divided. General public health advice to receive sufficient sun exposure to avoid vitamin D deficiency (<50 nmol/L) should also ensure any benefits for multiple sclerosis, but must be tempered against the risk of skin cancers.

SUBMITTER: Lucas RM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6121485 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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On the Nature of Evidence and 'Proving' Causality: Smoking and Lung Cancer vs. Sun Exposure, Vitamin D and Multiple Sclerosis.

Lucas Robyn M RM Rodney Harris Rachael M RM

International journal of environmental research and public health 20180812 8

If environmental exposures are shown to cause an adverse health outcome, reducing exposure should reduce the disease risk. Links between exposures and outcomes are typically based on 'associations' derived from observational studies, and causality may not be clear. Randomized controlled trials to 'prove' causality are often not feasible or ethical. Here the history of evidence that tobacco smoking causes lung cancer-from observational studies-is compared to that of low sun exposure and/or low vi ...[more]

PMID: 30103527

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Project description:Few detailed data are available on the wide range of determinants of vitamin D status among postmenopausal women, and it is also unclear whether there may be undiscovered determinants. The objective of this study was to comprehensively evaluate determinants of serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] concentrations in a large cohort of postmenopausal women. Data from a subset of the Women's Health Initiative Observational Study were analyzed (50-79 y; n = 3345). Information on diet, lifestyle behaviors, secondhand smoke, use of dietary supplements and medication, chronic diseases, and anthropometry was collected at baseline (1993-1998) and on sun exposure at year 4 follow-up. Linear regression was performed to estimate regression coefficients (?). Significant determinants were total vitamin D intake (food plus supplements per 100 IU/d, ? = 2.08), years of supplemental vitamin D use (? = 0.15), total fat intake (grams per day, ? = -0.03), smoking status (? = -2.64, current vs. never), regional solar irradiance (? = 6.26, 475-500 vs. 300-325 Langleys), daylight time spent outdoors in summer (? = 5.15, >2 h vs. <30 min/d), recreational physical activity (metabolic equivalent task per hour per week, ? = 0.13), waist circumference (centimeters, ? = -0.26), and race/ethnicity (? = -11.94, black vs. white). Total vitamin D intake (partial R(2) = 0.09) explained the most variance in serum 25(OH)D concentrations (total R(2) = 0.29). The association between total vitamin D intake and serum 25(OH)D concentrations was stronger among participants who spent less rather than more daylight time outdoors in summer (P-interaction = 0.026). History and medications for hypertension, hyperlipidemia, and type 2 diabetes and secondhand smoke exposure were not associated with serum 25(OH)D. In conclusion, dietary factors and sun exposure remain important determinants of vitamin D status in postmenopausal women. Vitamin D intake should be emphasized for those with limited sun exposure.

Project description:Background:Low vitamin D and/or sun exposure have been associated with increased risk of multiple sclerosis (MS) onset. However, comparatively, few studies have prospectively examined associations between these factors and clinical course. Objectives:To evaluate the association of sun exposure parameters and vitamin D levels with conversion to MS and relapse risk in a prospectively monitored cohort of 145 participants followed after a first demyelinating event up to 5-year review (AusLong Study). Methods:Sun exposure prior to and after onset measured by annual questionnaire; ultraviolet radiation (UVR) "load" estimated by location of residence over the life course and ambient UVR levels. Serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] concentrations measured at baseline, 2/3-year, and 5-year review. MS conversion and relapse assessed by neurologist assessment and medical record review. Results:Over two-thirds (69%) of those followed to 5-year review (100/145) converted to MS, with a total of 252 relapses. Higher pre-MS onset sun exposure was associated with reduced risk of MS conversion, with internal consistency between measures and dose-response relationships. Analogous associations were also seen with risk of relapse, albeit less strong. No consistent associations were observed between postonset sun exposure and clinical course, however. Notably, those who increased their sun exposure during follow-up had significantly reduced hazards of MS conversion and relapse. Serum 25(OH)D levels and vitamin D supplementation were not associated with conversion to MS or relapse hazard. Conclusion:We found that preonset sun exposure was protective against subsequent conversion to MS and relapses. While consistent associations between postonset sun exposure or serum 25(OH)D level and clinical course were not evident, possibly masked by behavior change, those participants who markedly increased their sun exposure demonstrated a reduced MS conversion and relapse hazard, suggesting beneficial effects of sun exposure on clinical course.

Dataset Information

On the Nature of Evidence and 'Proving' Causality: Smoking and Lung Cancer vs. Sun Exposure, Vitamin D and Multiple Sclerosis.

Publications

On the Nature of Evidence and 'Proving' Causality: Smoking and Lung Cancer vs. Sun Exposure, Vitamin D and Multiple Sclerosis.

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