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Spatiotemporal diffusion of influenza A (H1N1): Starting point and risk factors.

ABSTRACT: Influenza constitutes a major challenge to world health authorities due to high transmissibility and the capacity to generate large epidemics. This study aimed to characterize the diffusion process of influenza A (H1N1) by identifying the starting point of the epidemic as well as climatic and sociodemographic factors associated with the occurrence and intensity of transmission of the disease. The study was carried out in the Brazilian state of Paraná, where H1N1 caused the largest impact. The units of spatial and temporal analysis were the municipality of residence of the cases and the epidemiological weeks of the year 2009, respectively. Under the Bayesian paradigm, parametric inference was performed through a two-part spatiotemporal model and the integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) algorithm. We identified the most likely starting points through the effective distance measure based on mobility networks. The proposed estimation methodology allowed for rapid and efficient implementation of the spatiotemporal model, and provided evidence of different patterns for chance of occurrence and risk of influenza throughout the epidemiological weeks. The results indicate the capital city of Curitiba as the probable starting point, and showed that the interventions that focus on municipalities with greater migration and density of people, especially those with higher Human Development Indexes (HDIs) and the presence of municipal air and road transport, could play an important role in mitigation of effects of future influenza pandemics on public health. These results provide important information on the process of introduction and spread of influenza, and could contribute to the identification of priority areas for surveillance as well as establishment of strategic measures for disease prevention and control. The proposed model also allows identification of epidemiological weeks with high chance of influenza occurrence, which can be used as a reference criterion for creating an immunization campaign schedule.

SUBMITTER: da Costa ACC

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6122785 | biostudies-literature | 2018

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Spatiotemporal diffusion of influenza A (H1N1): Starting point and risk factors.

da Costa Ana Carolina Carioca ACC Codeço Cláudia Torres CT Krainski Elias Teixeira ET Gomes Marcelo Ferreira da Costa MFDC Nobre Aline Araújo AA

PloS one 20180904 9

Influenza constitutes a major challenge to world health authorities due to high transmissibility and the capacity to generate large epidemics. This study aimed to characterize the diffusion process of influenza A (H1N1) by identifying the starting point of the epidemic as well as climatic and sociodemographic factors associated with the occurrence and intensity of transmission of the disease. The study was carried out in the Brazilian state of Paraná, where H1N1 caused the largest impact. The un ...[more]

PMID: 30180215

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Project description:BackgroundSince the start of the 2009 influenza A pandemic (H1N1pdm), the World Health Organization and its member states have gathered information to characterize the clinical severity of H1N1pdm infection and to assist policy makers to determine risk groups for targeted control measures.Methods and findingsData were collected on approximately 70,000 laboratory-confirmed hospitalized H1N1pdm patients, 9,700 patients admitted to intensive care units (ICUs), and 2,500 deaths reported between 1 April 2009 and 1 January 2010 from 19 countries or administrative regions--Argentina, Australia, Canada, Chile, China, France, Germany, Hong Kong SAR, Japan, Madagascar, Mexico, The Netherlands, New Zealand, Singapore, South Africa, Spain, Thailand, the United States, and the United Kingdom--to characterize and compare the distribution of risk factors among H1N1pdm patients at three levels of severity: hospitalizations, ICU admissions, and deaths. The median age of patients increased with severity of disease. The highest per capita risk of hospitalization was among patients <5 y and 5-14 y (relative risk [RR]?=?3.3 and 3.2, respectively, compared to the general population), whereas the highest risk of death per capita was in the age groups 50-64 y and ?65 y (RR?=?1.5 and 1.6, respectively, compared to the general population). Similarly, the ratio of H1N1pdm deaths to hospitalizations increased with age and was the highest in the ?65-y-old age group, indicating that while infection rates have been observed to be very low in the oldest age group, risk of death in those over the age of 64 y who became infected was higher than in younger groups. The proportion of H1N1pdm patients with one or more reported chronic conditions increased with severity (median?=?31.1%, 52.3%, and 61.8% of hospitalized, ICU-admitted, and fatal H1N1pdm cases, respectively). With the exception of the risk factors asthma, pregnancy, and obesity, the proportion of patients with each risk factor increased with severity level. For all levels of severity, pregnant women in their third trimester consistently accounted for the majority of the total of pregnant women. Our findings suggest that morbid obesity might be a risk factor for ICU admission and fatal outcome (RR?=?36.3).ConclusionsOur results demonstrate that risk factors for severe H1N1pdm infection are similar to those for seasonal influenza, with some notable differences, such as younger age groups and obesity, and reinforce the need to identify and protect groups at highest risk of severe outcomes. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

Project description:BackgroundUnderstanding immunity, incidence and risk factors of the 2009 influenza A(H1N1) pandemic (2009 H1N1) through a national seroprevalence study is necessary for informing public health interventions and disease modelling.Methods and findingsWe collected 1687 serum samples and individual risk factor data between November-2009 to March-2010, three months after the end of the 2009 H1N1 wave in New Zealand. Participants were randomly sampled from selected general practices countrywide and hospitals in the Auckland region. Baseline immunity was measured from 521 sera collected during 2004 to April-2009. Haemagglutination inhibition (HI) antibody titres of ?1:40 against 2009 H1N1 were considered seroprotective as well as seropositive. The overall community seroprevalence was 26.7% (CI:22.6-29.4). The seroprevalence varied across age and ethnicity. Children aged 5-19 years had the highest seroprevalence (46.7%;CI:38.3-55.0), a significant increase from the baseline (14%;CI:7.2-20.8). Older adults aged ?60 had no significant difference in seroprevalence between the serosurvey (24.8%;CI:18.7-30.9) and baseline (22.6%;CI:15.3-30.0). Pacific peoples had the highest seroprevalence (49.5%;CI:35.1-64.0). There was no significant difference in seroprevalence between both primary (29.6%;CI:22.6-36.5) and secondary healthcare workers (25.3%;CI:20.8-29.8) and community participants. No significant regional variation was observed. Multivariate analysis indicated age as the most important risk factor followed by ethnicity. Previous seasonal influenza vaccination was associated with higher HI titres. Approximately 45.2% of seropositive individuals reported no symptoms.ConclusionsBased on age and ethnicity standardisation to the New Zealand Population, about 29.5% of New Zealanders had antibody titers at a level consistent with immunity to 2009 H1N1. Around 18.3% of New Zealanders were infected with the virus during the first wave including about one child in every three. Older people were protected due to pre-existing immunity. Age was the most important factor associated with infection followed by ethnicity. Healthcare workers did not appear to have an increased risk of infection compared with the general population.

Dataset Information

Spatiotemporal diffusion of influenza A (H1N1): Starting point and risk factors.

Publications

Spatiotemporal diffusion of influenza A (H1N1): Starting point and risk factors.

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