Dataset Information

Modeling Rabbit Responses to Single and Multiple Aerosol Exposures of Bacillus anthracis Spores.

ABSTRACT: Survival models are developed to predict response and time-to-response for mortality in rabbits following exposures to single or multiple aerosol doses of Bacillus anthracis spores. Hazard function models were developed for a multiple-dose data set to predict the probability of death through specifying functions of dose response and the time between exposure and the time-to-death (TTD). Among the models developed, the best-fitting survival model (baseline model) is an exponential dose-response model with a Weibull TTD distribution. Alternative models assessed use different underlying dose-response functions and use the assumption that, in a multiple-dose scenario, earlier doses affect the hazard functions of each subsequent dose. In addition, published mechanistic models are analyzed and compared with models developed in this article. None of the alternative models that were assessed provided a statistically significant improvement in fit over the baseline model. The general approach utilizes simple empirical data analysis to develop parsimonious models with limited reliance on mechanistic assumptions. The baseline model predicts TTDs consistent with reported results from three independent high-dose rabbit data sets. More accurate survival models depend upon future development of dose-response data sets specifically designed to assess potential multiple-dose effects on response and time-to-response. The process used in this article to develop the best-fitting survival model for exposure of rabbits to multiple aerosol doses of B. anthracis spores should have broad applicability to other host-pathogen systems and dosing schedules because the empirical modeling approach is based upon pathogen-specific empirically-derived parameters.

SUBMITTER: Coleman ME

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6126673 | biostudies-literature | 2017 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Modeling Rabbit Responses to Single and Multiple Aerosol Exposures of Bacillus anthracis Spores.

Coleman Margaret E ME Marks Harry M HM Bartrand Timothy A TA Donahue Darrell W DW Hines Stephanie A SA Comer Jason E JE Taft Sarah C SC

Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis 20170125 5

Survival models are developed to predict response and time-to-response for mortality in rabbits following exposures to single or multiple aerosol doses of Bacillus anthracis spores. Hazard function models were developed for a multiple-dose data set to predict the probability of death through specifying functions of dose response and the time between exposure and the time-to-death (TTD). Among the models developed, the best-fitting survival model (baseline model) is an exponential dose-response m ...[more]

PMID: 28121020

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Project description:Bacterial endospores produced by Bacillus and Clostridium species can remain dormant and highly resistant to environmental insults for long periods, but they can also rapidly germinate in response to a nutrient-rich environment. Multiple proteins involved in sensing and responding to nutrient germinants, initiating solute and water transport, and accomplishing spore wall degradation are associated with the membrane surrounding the spore core. In order to more fully catalog proteins that may be involved in spore germination, as well as to identify protein changes taking place during germination, unbiased proteomic analyses of membrane preparations isolated from dormant and germinated spores of Bacillus anthracis and Bacillus subtilis were undertaken. Membrane-associated proteins were fractionated by SDS-PAGE, gel slices were trypsin digested, and extracted peptides were fractionated by liquid chromatography and analyzed by matrix-assisted laser desorption ionization-tandem time of flight mass spectrometry. More than 500 proteins were identified from each preparation. Bioinformatic methods were used to characterize proteins with regard to membrane association, cellular function, and conservation across species. Numerous proteins not previously known to be spore associated, 6 in B. subtilis and 68 in B. anthracis, were identified. Relative quantitation based on spectral counting indicated that the majority of spore membrane proteins decrease in abundance during the first 20 min of germination. The spore membranes contained several proteins thought to be involved in the transport of metal ions, a process that plays a major role in spore formation and germination. Analyses of mutant strains lacking these transport proteins implicated YloB in the accumulation of calcium within the developing forespore.IMPORTANCE Bacterial endospores can remain dormant and highly resistant to environmental insults for long periods but can also rapidly germinate in response to a nutrient-rich environment. The persistence and subsequent germination of spores contribute to their colonization of new environments and to the spread of certain diseases. Proteins of Bacillus subtilis and Bacillus anthracis were identified that are associated with the spore membrane, a position that can allow them to contribute to germination. A set of identified proteins that are predicted to carry out ion transport were examined for their contributions to spore formation, stability, and germination. Greater knowledge of spore formation and germination can contribute to the development of better decontamination strategies.

Dataset Information

Modeling Rabbit Responses to Single and Multiple Aerosol Exposures of Bacillus anthracis Spores.

Publications

Modeling Rabbit Responses to Single and Multiple Aerosol Exposures of Bacillus anthracis Spores.

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