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Dynamic modelling of personal protection control strategies for vector-borne disease limits the role of diversity amplification.


ABSTRACT: Personal protection measures, such as bed nets and repellents, are important tools for the suppression of vector-borne diseases like malaria and Zika, and the ability of health agencies to distribute protection and encourage its use plays an important role in the efficacy of community-wide disease management strategies. Recent modelling studies have shown that a counterintuitive diversity-driven amplification in community-wide disease levels can result from a population's partial adoption of personal protection measures, potentially to the detriment of disease management efforts. This finding, however, may overestimate the negative impact of partial personal protection as a result of implicit restrictive model assumptions regarding host compliance, access to and longevity of protection measures. We establish a new modelling methodology for incorporating community-wide personal protection distribution programmes in vector-borne disease systems which flexibly accounts for compliance, access, longevity and control strategies by way of a flow between protected and unprotected populations. Our methodology yields large reductions in the severity and occurrence of amplification effects as compared to existing models.

SUBMITTER: Demers J 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6127172 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Dynamic modelling of personal protection control strategies for vector-borne disease limits the role of diversity amplification.

Demers Jeffery J   Bewick Sharon S   Calabrese Justin J   Fagan William F WF  

Journal of the Royal Society, Interface 20180801 145


Personal protection measures, such as bed nets and repellents, are important tools for the suppression of vector-borne diseases like malaria and Zika, and the ability of health agencies to distribute protection and encourage its use plays an important role in the efficacy of community-wide disease management strategies. Recent modelling studies have shown that a counterintuitive diversity-driven amplification in community-wide disease levels can result from a population's partial adoption of per  ...[more]

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