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A new model to predict major bleeding in patients with atrial fibrillation using warfarin or direct oral anticoagulants.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:No scores presently exist to predict bleeding in atrial fibrillation (AF) populations using direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs). We used data from two independent healthcare claims databases to develop and validate a predictive model of major bleeding in a contemporary AF population. METHODS:Patients with non-valvular AF initiating oral anticoagulation were identified in the MarketScan databases from 2007-2014. Using Cox regression models in 1000 bootstrapped samples, we developed a model that selected variables predicting major bleeding in the first year after anticoagulant initiation. The final model was validated in patients with non-valvular AF in the Optum Clinformatics database in the period 2009-2015. The discriminative ability of existing bleeding scores were individually evaluated and compared with the new bleeding model termed Anticoagulation-specific Bleeding Score (ABS) in both MarketScan and Optum. RESULTS:Among 119,083 patients with AF initiating oral anticoagulation in the derivation cohort, 4,030 experienced a bleeding event. The variable selection model identified 15 variables (including individual type of oral anticoagulant) associated with major bleeding. Discrimination of the model was modest [c-statistic 0.68, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.67-0.69]. The model was subsequently applied to 81,285 AF patients in the validation data set (3,238 bleeding events), showing similar discrimination (c-statistic 0.68, 95% CI 0.67-0.69). In both cohorts, the predictive performance of the ABS was better than the existing models for bleeding prediction in AF. CONCLUSIONS:We developed a model that uses administrative healthcare data for the identification of AF patients at higher risk of bleeding after initiation of oral anticoagulation, taking into account the lower bleeding risk in DOAC compared to warfarin users.

SUBMITTER: Claxton JS

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6130859 | biostudies-literature | 2018

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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A new model to predict major bleeding in patients with atrial fibrillation using warfarin or direct oral anticoagulants.

Claxton J'Neka S JS MacLehose Richard F RF Lutsey Pamela L PL Norby Faye L FL Chen Lin Y LY O'Neal Wesley T WT Chamberlain Alanna M AM Bengtson Lindsay G S LGS Alonso Alvaro A

PloS one 20180910 9

<h4>Background</h4>No scores presently exist to predict bleeding in atrial fibrillation (AF) populations using direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs). We used data from two independent healthcare claims databases to develop and validate a predictive model of major bleeding in a contemporary AF population.<h4>Methods</h4>Patients with non-valvular AF initiating oral anticoagulation were identified in the MarketScan databases from 2007-2014. Using Cox regression models in 1000 bootstrapped samples, we ...[more]

PMID: 30199542

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Project description:BackgroundDespite direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) being safer than warfarin for stroke prevention in atrial fibrillation (AF), major bleeding concerns persist. Most bleeding risk scores predate DOAC approval.ObjectivesThis study aimed to compare the Age, history of Bleeding, and non-bleeding related Hospitalisation [ABH] score's performance-derived for DOAC-treated patients-with those of 5 other scores (Anticoagulation and Risk Factors in Atrial Fibrillation [ATRIA], Hypertension, Abnormal renal/liver function, Stroke, Bleeding history or predisposition, Labile international normalized ratio, Elderly [>65 years], Drugs/alcohol concomitantly [HAS-BLED], Hepatic, Hepatic or Renal Disease, Ethanol Abuse, Malignancy, Older Age, Reduced Platelet Count or Function, Re-Bleeding, Hypertension, Anemia, Genetic Factors, Excessive Fall Risk and Stroke [HEMORR2HAGES], Outcomes Registry for Better Informed Treatment of Atrial Fibrillation [ORBIT-AF], and Congestive heart failure, Hypertension, Age ≥75 [doubled], Diabetes, Stroke [doubled]-Vascular disease, Age 65-74, Sex category [CHA2DS2-VASc]) in predicting DOAC-related major bleeding in patients with AF.MethodsIn this retrospective study of 2364 patients with nonvalvular AF on rivaroxaban or apixaban (median age, 68.3 years; 32.1% women), International Society on Thrombosis and Haemostasis-defined major bleeding (incidence, 4.1%; n = 97) was analyzed. C-statistics from time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves for continuous risk scores were the primary comparison metric, but other metrics, such as decision curves, were also compared.ResultsAt 100 days, C-statistics were highest for ORBIT-AF and ATRIA (0.62 and 0.61, respectively, with other scores having an area under the ROC curve of <0.60); some significant differences favored ORBIT-AF. At 1100 days, C-statistics remained highest for ORBIT-AF and ATRIA (0.62 and 0.61, respectively, with other scores having an area under the ROC curve of <0.60 again), and ORBIT-AF had significantly higher C-statistics than those for all other risk scores (P < .05), except for ATRIA. At 2100 days, all C-statistics were <0.60 with no significant differences. Decision curves showed the greatest net benefit for ORBIT-AF and ATRIA at 100 days and for ATRIA at 1100 days, with no discernible net benefit for any of the scores at 2100 days.ConclusionORBIT-AF and ATRIA provided the best bleeding risk prediction within the first 1100 days. None of the 6 bleeding risk scores provided predictive benefit over 2100 days of DOAC treatment.

Project description:Essentials Currently, DOACs are given at fixed doses and do not require laboratory monitoring. Direct oral anticoagulant-specific measurements were performed at trough and peak. Patients who developed bleeding events showed higher DOAC plasma levels at peak. This study suggests the need of a more accurate DOAC dose assessment.BackgroundDirect oral anticoagulants (DOACs) are administered at fixed dose. The aim of the study was to evaluate the relationship between DOAC C-trough or C-peak plasma levels and bleeding complications in patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF).MethodsFive hundred sixty five consecutive naive NVAF patients were enrolled. The DOAC measurements at C-trough and at C-peak (available in 411 patients) were performed at steady state, within the first month of treatment. Major bleeding (MB), clinically relevant non-major bleeding (CRNMB), and minor bleeding (MinB), occurring during 1 year of follow-up after blood sampling, were recorded. For each DOAC, interval of C-trough and C-peak levels was subdivided into four equal classes and results were attributed to these classes; the median values of results were also calculated.ResultsTwo hundred eight patients were on apixaban, 185 on dabigatran, and 172 on rivaroxaban. For 1-[qqqdeletezzz] year follow up for all patients, we observed: 19 MB (3.36%), 6 CRNMB (1.06%), and 47 MinB (8.31%). The prevalence of bleeding patients with anticoagulant levels in the upper classes of C-peak activity (II + III + IV) was higher than that in the lowest class. Normalized results of C-peak levels were higher in patients with bleeding than in those without bleeding.ConclusionsBleeding complications during DOAC treatment were more frequent among atrial fibrillation (AF) patients with higher C-peak anticoagulant levels. In addition to a previous study that showed an increased risk of thrombotic complications in the patients with low C-trough levels, this study seems to indicate that patients with NVAF on DOACs would need a more accurate definition of their optimal therapeutic window.

Project description:BackgroundPrevious studies examining the use of direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) in atrial fibrillation (AF) have largely focused on patients newly initiating therapy. Little is known about the prevalence/patterns of switching to DOACs among AF patients initially treated with warfarin.HypothesisTo examine patterns of anticoagulation among patients chronically managed with warfarin upon the availability of DOACs and identify patient/practice-level factors associated with switching from chronic warfarin therapy to a DOAC.MethodsProspective cohort study of AF patients in the NCDR PINNACLE registry prescribed warfarin between May 1, 2008 and May 1, 2015. Patients were followed at least 1 year (median length of follow-up 375 days, IQR 154-375) through May 1, 2016 and stratified as follows: continued warfarin, switched to DOAC, or discontinued anticoagulation. To identify significant predictors of switching, a three-level multivariable hierarchical regression was developed.ResultsAmong 383 008 AF patients initially prescribed warfarin, 16.3% (n = 62 620) switched to DOACs, 68.8% (n = 263 609) continued warfarin, and 14.8% (n = 56 779) discontinued anticoagulation. Among those switched, 37.6% received dabigatran, 37.0% rivaroxaban, 24.4% apixaban, and 1.0% edoxaban. Switched patients were more likely to be younger, women, white, and have private insurance (all P < .001). Switching was less likely with increased stroke risk (OR, 0.92; 95%CI, 0.91-0.93 per 1-point increase CHA2 DS2 -VASc), but more likely with increased bleeding risk (OR, 1.12; 95%CI, 1.10-1.13 per 1-point increase HAS-BLED). There was substantial variation at the practice-level (MOR, 2.33; 95%CI, 2.12-2.58) and among providers within the same practice (MOR, 1.46; 95%CI, 1.43-1.49).ConclusionsAmong AF patients treated with warfarin between October 1, 2010 and May 1, 2016, one in six were switched to DOACs, with differences across sociodemographic/clinical characteristics and substantial practice-level variation. In the context of current guidelines which favor DOACs over warfarin, these findings help benchmark performance and identify areas of improvement.

Project description:BackgroundDirect-acting oral anticoagulants (DOACs) have demonstrated superior efficacy in preventing stroke and death compared with warfarin in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF), but their influence on dementia risk remains unclear.ObjectivesThe purpose of this study was to evaluate the relative risks of dementia in DOAC vs warfarin in patients with AF.MethodsAn electronic literature search was conducted to retrieve studies reporting comparisons of dementia incidence between patients treated with DOACs and warfarin for AF. HRs and 95% CI were pooled in a random-effects meta-analysis. Meta-regression was performed to identify prognostic baseline variables. Network meta-analysis was performed to determine dementia risk between individual DOACs and warfarin.ResultsTen studies (n = 342,624) were retrieved. DOAC was associated with a significantly lower risk of developing dementia compared with warfarin (HR: 0.88; 95% CI: 0.80-0.98; P = 0.017; I2 = 75%); significance was also seen in Asian patients (HR: 0.81; 95% CI: 0.68-0.86) but not non-Asian patients. Subgroup analyses of propensity score-matched studies and patients aged 65-75 years showed similar significance, but not for patients aged ≥75 years. Meta-regression found that a lower mean age corresponded to significantly greater favoring of DOAC over warfarin. Network meta-analysis found significant reductions in dementia risk over warfarin for rivaroxaban (HR: 0.854; 95% CI: 0.763-0.955), apixaban (HR: 0.881; 95% CI: 0.778-0.997), and dabigatran (HR: 0.871; 95% CI: 0.770-0.987); the highest-ranked treatment based on P scores was edoxaban.ConclusionsThe use of DOAC in AF significantly reduces dementia risk compared with warfarin, particularly in Asian patients. The possible reversal of this effect with increasing age merits further randomized trials with long-term follow-up. (Dementia Risk of Direct Oral Anticoagulants Versus Warfarin for Atrial Fibrillation: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis; CRD42022365634).

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A new model to predict major bleeding in patients with atrial fibrillation using warfarin or direct oral anticoagulants.

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A new model to predict major bleeding in patients with atrial fibrillation using warfarin or direct oral anticoagulants.

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