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Performance of different clinical trial designs to evaluate treatments during an epidemic.

ABSTRACT: In the 2013-2016 west Africa outbreak of Ebola Virus Disease (EVD), most of the planned clinical trials failed to reach a conclusion within the time frame of the epidemic. The performance of clinical trial designs for the evaluation of one or more experimental treatments in the specific context of an ongoing epidemic with changing case fatality rates (CFR) and unpredictable case numbers is unclear. We conduct a comprehensive evaluation of commonly used two- and multi-arm clinical trial designs based on real data, which was recorded during the 2013-16 EVD epidemic in west Africa. The primary endpoint is death within 14 days of hospitalization. The impact of the recruitment start times relative to the time course of the epidemic on the operating characteristics of the clinical trials is analysed. Designs with frequent interim analyses with the possibility of early stopping are shown to outperform designs with only a single analysis not only in terms of average time to conclusion and average sample size, but also in terms of the probability of reaching any conclusion at all. Historic control designs almost always result in substantially inflated false positive rates, when the case fatality rate changes over time. Response-adaptive randomization may be a compromise between the goal of scientific validity and the ethical goal of minimizing the number of patients allocated to ineffective treatments.

SUBMITTER: Brueckner M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6133355 | biostudies-literature | 2018

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Performance of different clinical trial designs to evaluate treatments during an epidemic.

Brueckner Matthias M Titman Andrew A Jaki Thomas T Rojek Amanda A Horby Peter P

PloS one 20180911 9

In the 2013-2016 west Africa outbreak of Ebola Virus Disease (EVD), most of the planned clinical trials failed to reach a conclusion within the time frame of the epidemic. The performance of clinical trial designs for the evaluation of one or more experimental treatments in the specific context of an ongoing epidemic with changing case fatality rates (CFR) and unpredictable case numbers is unclear. We conduct a comprehensive evaluation of commonly used two- and multi-arm clinical trial designs b ...[more]

PMID: 30204799

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Project description:BackgroundExperimental treatments for Ebola virus disease (EVD) might reduce EVD mortality. There is uncertainty about the ability of different clinical trial designs to identify effective treatments, and about the feasibility of implementing individually randomised controlled trials during an Ebola epidemic.Methods and findingsA treatment evaluation programme for use in EVD was devised using a multi-stage approach (MSA) with two or three stages, including both non-randomised and randomised elements. The probabilities of rightly or wrongly recommending the experimental treatment, the required sample size, and the consequences for epidemic outcomes over 100 d under two epidemic scenarios were compared for the MSA, a sequential randomised controlled trial (SRCT) with up to 20 interim analyses, and, as a reference case, a conventional randomised controlled trial (RCT) without interim analyses. Assuming 50% 14-d survival in the population treated with the current standard of supportive care, all designs had similar probabilities of identifying effective treatments correctly, while the MSA was less likely to recommend treatments that were ineffective. The MSA led to a smaller number of cases receiving ineffective treatments and faster roll-out of highly effective treatments. For less effective treatments, the MSA had a high probability of including an RCT component, leading to a somewhat longer time to roll-out or rejection. Assuming 100 new EVD cases per day, the MSA led to between 6% and 15% greater reductions in epidemic mortality over the first 100 d for highly effective treatments compared to the SRCT. Both the MSA and SRCT led to substantially fewer deaths than a conventional RCT if the tested interventions were either highly effective or harmful. In the proposed MSA, the major threat to the validity of the results of the non-randomised components is that referral patterns, standard of care, or the virus itself may change during the study period in ways that affect mortality. Adverse events are also harder to quantify without a concurrent control group.ConclusionsThe MSA discards ineffective treatments quickly, while reliably providing evidence concerning effective treatments. The MSA is appropriate for the clinical evaluation of EVD treatments.

Project description:BackgroundSeveral species-specific PCR assays, based on a variety of target genes are currently used in the diagnosis of Mycoplasma bovis infections in cattle herds with respiratory diseases and/or mastitis. With this diversity of methods, and the development of new methods and formats, regular performance comparisons are required to ascertain diagnostic quality. The present study compares PCR methods that are currently used in six national veterinary institutes across Europe. Three different sample panels were compiled and analysed to assess the analytical specificity, analytical sensitivity and comparability of the different PCR methods. The results were also compared, when appropriate, to those obtained through isolation by culture. The sensitivity and comparability panels were composed of samples from bronchoalveolar fluids of veal calves, artificially contaminated or naturally infected, and hence the comparison of the different methods included the whole workflow from DNA extraction to PCR analysis.ResultsThe participating laboratories used i) five different DNA extraction methods, ii) seven different real-time and/or end-point PCRs targeting four different genes and iii) six different real-time PCR platforms. Only one commercial kit was assessed; all other PCR assays were in-house tests adapted from published methods. The analytical specificity of the different PCR methods was comparable except for one laboratory where Mycoplasma agalactiae was tested positive. Frequently, weak-positive results with Ct values between 37 and 40 were obtained for non-target Mycoplasma strains. The limit of detection (LOD) varied from 10 to 103 CFU/ml to 103 and 106 CFU/ml for the real-time and end-point assays, respectively. Cultures were also shown to detect concentrations down to 102 CFU/ml. Although Ct values showed considerable variation with naturally infected samples, both between laboratories and tests, the final result interpretation of the samples (positive versus negative) was essentially the same between the different laboratories.ConclusionWith a few exceptions, all methods used routinely in the participating laboratories showed comparable performance, which assures the quality of diagnosis, despite the multiplicity of the methods.

Project description:BackgroundIn recent years, obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) has been increasingly recognized as a significant health concern. No previous studies assessed the effect of recommended treatment modalities of patients with OSA on the temporomandibular joint (TMJ). The current study aimed to evaluate the effect of different treatment modalities of OSA, such as continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP), mandibular advancement device (MAD), and oral myofunctional therapy (OMT) on subjective symptoms, clinical, and radiographic signs of temporomandibular disorders.Patients & methodsThis hospital-based prospective randomized controlled clinical trial study was approved by the institutional review board and formal patient consent, 39 OSA patients, ranging in age from 19 to 56 after confirmation with full night Polysomnography (PSG) with healthy TMJ confirmed clinically and radiographically with magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) were randomly allocated into three treatment groups. Group 1: 13 patients were managed with CPAP after titration, group 2: 13 patients were managed with digitally fabricated MAD, and group 3: 13 patients were managed with OMT. The following parameters were evaluated before and 3 months after the intervention. Pain using a visual analogue scale (VAS), maximum inter-incisal opening (MIO), lateral movements, and clicking sound of TMJ. MRI was done before and 3 months after the intervention.ResultsOut of the 83 patients enrolled, 39 patients completed the treatment. There were no statistically significant differences in lateral jaw movements or clicking, and no significant difference in MRI findings between the three studied groups before and after the intervention. The OMT group showed a statistically significant difference in pain (p = 0.001), and MIO (p = 0.043) where patients experienced mild pain and slight limitation in mouth opening after 3 months of follow-up in comparison to MAD and CPAP groups.ConclusionCPAP and MAD are better for preserving the health of TMJ in the treatment of OSA patients. While OMT showed mild pain and slight limitation of MIO (that is still within the normal range of mouth opening) compared to CPAP and MAD.Trial registrationThe study was listed on www.Clinicaltrialsgov with registration number (NCT05510882) on 22/08/2022.

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Performance of different clinical trial designs to evaluate treatments during an epidemic.

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Performance of different clinical trial designs to evaluate treatments during an epidemic.

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