Dataset Information

Population-level HIV incidence estimates using a combination of synthetic cohort and recency biomarker approaches in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.

ABSTRACT:

Introduction

There is a notable absence of consensus on how to generate estimates of population-level incidence. Incidence is a considerably more sensitive indicator of epidemiological trends than prevalence, but is harder to estimate. We used a novel hybrid method to estimate HIV incidence by age and sex in a rural district of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.

Methods

Our novel method uses an 'optimal weighting' of estimates based on an implementation of a particular 'synthetic cohort' approach (interpreting the age/time structure of prevalence, in conjunction with estimates of excess mortality) and biomarkers of 'recent infection' (combining Lag-Avidity, Bio-Rad Avidity and viral load results to define recent infection, and adapting the method for age-specific incidence estimation). Data were obtained from a population-based cross-sectional HIV survey conducted in Mbongolwane and Eshowe health service areas in 2013.

Results

Using the combined method, we find that age-specific HIV incidence in females rose rapidly during adolescence, from 1.33 cases/100 person-years (95% CI: 0.98,1.67) at age 15 to a peak of 5.01/100PY (4.14,5.87) at age 23. In males, incidence was lower, 0.34/100PY (0.00-0.74) at age 15, and rose later, peaking at 3.86/100PY (2.52-5.20) at age 30. Susceptible population-weighted average incidence in females aged 15-29 was estimated at 3.84/100PY (3.36-4.40), in males aged 15-29 at 1.28/100PY (0.68-1.50) and in all individuals aged 15-29 at 2.55/100PY (2.09-2.76). Using the conventional recency biomarker approach, we estimated HIV incidence among females aged 15-29 at 2.99/100PY (1.79-4.36), among males aged 15-29 at 0.87/100PY (0.22-1.60) and among all individuals aged 15-59 at 1.66/100PY (1.13-2.27).

Discussion

HIV incidence was very high in women aged 15-30, peaking in the early 20s. Men had lower incidence, which peaked at age 30. The estimates obtained from the hybrid method are more informative than those produced by conventional analysis of biomarker data, and represents a more optimal use of available data than either the age-continuous biomarker or synthetic cohort methods alone. The method is mainly useful at younger ages, where excess mortality is low and uncertainty in the synthetic cohort estimates is reasonably small.

Conclusion

Application of this method to large-scale population-based HIV prevalence surveys is likely to result in improved incidence surveillance over methods currently in wide use. Reasonably accurate and precise age-specific estimates of incidence are important to target better prevention, diagnosis and care strategies.

SUBMITTER: Grebe E

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6136757 | biostudies-literature | 2018

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Population-level HIV incidence estimates using a combination of synthetic cohort and recency biomarker approaches in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.

Grebe Eduard E Welte Alex A Johnson Leigh F LF van Cutsem Gilles G Puren Adrian A Ellman Tom T Etard Jean-François JF Huerga Helena H

PloS one 20180913 9

<h4>Introduction</h4>There is a notable absence of consensus on how to generate estimates of population-level incidence. Incidence is a considerably more sensitive indicator of epidemiological trends than prevalence, but is harder to estimate. We used a novel hybrid method to estimate HIV incidence by age and sex in a rural district of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.<h4>Methods</h4>Our novel method uses an 'optimal weighting' of estimates based on an implementation of a particular 'synthetic cohort ...[more]

PMID: 30212513

Similar Datasets

Project description:Importance:In Africa, the persistently high HIV incidence rate among young women is the major obstacle to achieving the goal of epidemic control. Objective:To determine trends in coverage of HIV prevention and treatment programs and HIV incidence. Design, Setting, and Participants:This cohort study consisted of 2 sequential, community-based longitudinal studies performed in the Vulindlela and Greater Edendale area in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Participants enrolled from June 11, 2014, to June 22, 2015 (2014 survey), with a single follow-up visit from June 24, 2016, to April 3, 2017 (2016 cohort), or enrolled from July 8, 2015, to June 7, 2016 (2015 survey), with a single follow-up visit from November 7, 2016, to August 30, 2017 (2017 cohort). Men and women aged 15 to 49 years were enrolled in the 2014 and 2015 surveys, and HIV-seronegative participants aged 15 to 35 years were followed up in the 2016 and 2017 cohorts. Analysis was conducted from January 1 through December 31, 2018. Exposures:HIV prevention and treatment programs in a real-world, nontrial setting. Main Outcomes and Measures:Trends in sex- and age-specific HIV incidence rates, condom use, voluntary medical male circumcision, knowledge of HIV-seropositive status, uptake of antiretroviral therapy, and viral suppression. Results:A total of 9812 participants (6265 women [63.9%]; median age, 27 years [interquartile range, 20-36 years]) from 11 289 households were enrolled in the 2014 survey, and 10 236 participants (6341 women [61.9%]; median age, 27 years [interquartile range, 20-36 years]) from 12 247 households were enrolled in the 2015 survey. Of these, 3536 of 4539 (annual retention rate of 86.7%) completed follow-up in the 2016 cohort, and 3907 of 5307 (annual retention rate of 81.4%) completed follow-up in the 2017 cohort. From 2014 to 2015, condom use with last sex partner decreased by 10% from 24.0% (n = 644 of 3547) to 21.6% (n = 728 of 3895; P = .12) in men and by 17% from 19.6% (n = 1039 of 6265) to 16.2% (n = 871 of 6341; P = .002) in women. Voluntary medical male circumcision increased by 13% from 31.9% (1102 of 3547) to 36.1% (n = 1472 of 3895); P = .007) in men, and the proportion of women reporting that their partner was circumcised increased by 35% from 35.7% (n = 1695 of 4766) to 48.2% (n = 2519 of 5207; P < .001). Knowledge of HIV-seropositive status increased by 21% from 51.8% (n = 504 of 3547) to 62.9% (n = 570 of 3895; P < .001) in men and by 14% from 64.6% (n = 1833 of 6265) to 73.4% (n = 2182 of 6341; P < .001) in women. Use of antiretroviral therapy increased by 32% from 36.7% (n = 341 of 3547) to 48.6% (n = 432 of 3895; P < .001) in men and by 29% from 45.6% (n = 1251 of 6265) to 58.8% (n = 1743 of 6341; P < .001) in women; HIV viral suppression increased by 20% from 41.9% (n = 401 of 3547) to 50.3% (n = 456 of 3895; P = .005) in men and by 13% from 54.8% (n = 1547 of 6265) to 61.9% (n = 1828 of 6341; P < .001) in women. Incidence of HIV declined in women aged 15 to 19 years from 4.63 (95% CI, 3.29-6.52) to 2.74 (95% CI, 1.84-4.09) per 100 person-years (P = .04) but declined marginally or remained unchanged among men and women in other age groups. Conclusions and Relevance:This study showed a significant decline in HIV incidence in young women; however, to further reduce HIV incidence, HIV prevention and treatment program coverage must be intensified and scaled up.

Project description:BackgroundAccurately identifying individuals who are on antiretroviral therapy (ART) is important to determine ART coverage and proportion on ART who are virally suppressed. ART is also included in recent infection testing algorithms used to estimate incidence. We compared estimates of ART coverage, viral load suppression rates and HIV incidence using ART self-report and detection of antiretroviral (ARV) drugs and we identified factors associated with discordance between the methods.MethodsCross-sectional population-based survey in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Individuals 15-59 years were eligible. Interviews included questions about ARV use. Rapid HIV testing was performed at the participants' home. Blood specimens were collected for ARV detection, LAg-Avidity HIV incidence testing and viral load quantification in HIV-positive individuals. Multivariate logistic regression models were used to identify socio-demographic covariates associated with discordance between self-reported ART and ARV detection.ResultsOf the 5649 individuals surveyed, 1423 were HIV-positive. Median age was 34 years and 76.3% were women. ART coverage was estimated at 51.4% (95%CI:48.5-54.3), 53.1% (95%CI:50.2-55.9) and 56.1% (95%CI:53.5-58.8) using self-reported ART, ARV detection and both methods combined (classified as ART exposed if ARV detected and/or ART reported) respectively. ART coverage estimates using the 3 methods were fairly similar within sex and age categories except in individuals aged 15-19 years: 33.3% (95%CI:23.3-45.2), 33.8% (95%CI:23.9-45.4%) and 44.3% (95%CI:39.3-46.7) using self-reported ART, ARV detection and both methods combined. Viral suppression below 1000cp/mL in individuals on ART was estimated at 89.8% (95%CI:87.3-91.9), 93.1% (95%CI:91.0-94.8) and 88.7% (95%CI:86.2-90.7) using self-reported ART, ARV detection and both methods combined respectively. HIV incidence was estimated at 1.4 (95%CI:0.8-2.0) new cases/100 person-years when employing no measure of ARV use, 1.1/100PY (95%CI:0.6-1.7) using self-reported ART, and 1.2/100PY (95%CI:0.7-1.7) using ARV detection. In multivariate analyses, individuals aged 15-19 years had a higher risk of discordance on measures of ARV exposure (aOR:9.4; 95%CI:3.9-22.8), while migrants had a lower risk (aOR:0.3; 95%CI:0.1-0.6).ConclusionsIn KwaZulu-Natal, the method of identifying ARV use had little impact on estimates of ART coverage, viral suppression rate and HIV incidence. However, discordant results were more common in younger individuals. This may skew estimates of ART coverage and viral suppression, particularly in adolescent surveys.

Project description:ObjectivesResearch on migration and HIV has largely focused on male migration, often failing to measure HIV risks associated with migration for women. We aimed to establish whether associations between migration and HIV infection differ for women and men, and identify possible mechanisms by which women's migration contributes to their high infection risk.DesignData on socio-demographic characteristics, patterns of migration, sexual behavior and HIV infection status were obtained for a population of 11,677 women aged 15-49 and men aged 15-54, resident members of households within a demographic surveillance area participating in HIV surveillance in 2003-04.MethodsLogistic regression was conducted to examine whether sex and migration were independently associated with HIV infection in three additive effects models, using measures of recent migration, household presence and migration frequency. Multiplicative effects models were fitted to explore whether the risk of HIV associated with migration differed for males and females. Further modeling and simulations explored whether composition or behavioral differences accounted for observed associations.ResultsRelative to non-migrant males, non-migrant females had higher odds of being HIV-positive (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 1.72; 95% confidence interval [1.49-1.99]), but odds were higher for female migrants (aOR = 2.55 [2.07-3.13]). Female migrants also had higher odds of infection relative to female non-migrants (aOR = 1.48 [1.23-1.77]). The association between number of sexual partners over the lifetime and HIV infection was modified by both sex and migrant status: For male non-migrants, each additional partner was associated with 3% higher odds of HIV infection (aOR = 1.03 [1.02-1.05]); for male migrants the association between number of partners and HIV infection was non-significant. Each additional partner increased odds of HIV infection by 22% for female non-migrants (aOR = 1.22 [1.12-1.32]) and 46% for female migrants (aOR = 1.46 [1.25-1.69]).ConclusionsHigher risk sexual behavior in the context of migration increased women's likelihood of HIV infection.

Project description:Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is a serious global public-health threat. Evidence suggests that antimicrobial stewardship (AMS) is a valuable tool to facilitate rational antibiotic use within healthcare facilities. A cross-sectional situational analysis using a questionnaire was conducted to determine the current status of antimicrobial stewardship (AMS) activities in all public-sector hospitals in KwaZulu-Natal (KZN). The survey had a 79% (57, N = 72) response rate. A total of 75% of hospitals had an antimicrobial stewardship committee (AMSC), 47% (20, N = 43) had a formal written statement of support from leadership, and 7% (3, N = 43) had budgeted financial support. Only 37% (16, N = 43) had on-site or off-site support from a clinical microbiologist, and 5% (2, N = 43) had an on-site infectious disease (ID) physician. Microbiologist input on pathogen surveillance data (aOR: 5.12; 95% CI: 4.08-22.02; p-value = 0.001) and microbiological investigations prior to the commencement of antibiotics (aOR: 5.12; 95% CI: 1.08-42.01; p-value = 0.041) were significantly associated with having either on- or off-site microbiology support. Respondents that had a representative from microbiology on the AMSC were significantly associated with having and interrogating facility-specific antibiograms (P = 0.051 and P = 0.036, respectively). Those facilities that had access to a microbiologist were significantly associated with producing an antibiogram (aOR: 4.80; 95% CI: 1.25-18.42; p-value = 0.022). Facilities with an ID physician were significantly associated with having a current antibiogram distributed to prescribers within the facility (P = 0.010) and significantly associated with sending prescribers personalized communication regarding improving prescribing (P = 0.044). Common challenges reported by the facilities included suboptimal hospital management support; a lack of clinicians, pharmacists, nurses, microbiologists, and dedicated time; the lack of a multidisciplinary approach; low clinician buy-in; inadequate training; a lack of printed antibiotic guidelines; and financial restrictions for microbiological investigations. The survey identified the need for financial, IT, and management support. Microbiology and infectious disease physicians were recognized as scarce human resources.

Project description:BACKGROUND:Retinal cytomegalovirus (CMV) infection is a common opportunistic infection and remains a significant contributor to visual loss in patients with AIDS. We highlight the poor outcomes of CMV retinitis in three HIV-infected patients who were initiated on antiretroviral therapy (ART). We conducted a retrospective chart review of advanced stage HIV-infected patients with known CMV retinitis.Case 1. A 37-year-old man, with a CD4+ cell count of 35 cells/µL, presented for ART initiation with a 5-month history of visual loss in his left eye. Fundoscopy showed left eye CMV retinitis and right eye HIV retinopathy. ART and 5 months of weekly intravitreal ganciclovir injections (left eye) were commenced. Six-month outcomes included virological suppression, and visual acuity in the right eye of 6/6 and in the left eye of 3/60.Case 2. A 31-year-old woman, with a CD4+ cell count of 39 cells/µL and on tuberculosis therapy, presented for ART initiation. She presented with a 2-month history of decreased visual acuity. Fundoscopy showed bilateral CMV retinitis, which was more pronounced in the left eye. ART and 8 months of intravitreal ganciclovir injections were commenced. Six-month outcomes included virological suppression and visual acuity in the right eye of 6/9, and in the left eye of 6/24.Case 3. A 29-year-old woman, with a CD4+ cell count of 24 cells/µL, who was on tuberculosis therapy and ART, complained of blurred vision at her 2-month ART follow-up visit. Fundoscopy showed bilateral retinal detachment secondary to CMV retinitis. While silicone oil tamponade and subsequent retinectomy successfully repaired the right eye, extensive damage rendered the left eye irreparable. Six-month outcomes included virological suppression, with 6/120 visual acuity in the right eye and complete blindness in the left eye. CONCLUSION:CMV retinitis causes debilitating, permanent sequelae, which is preventable by ART initiation at higher CD4+ cell counts. Despite achieving virological suppression, vision could not be completely restored in these patients, irrespective of the severity of CMV retinitis.

Dataset Information

Population-level HIV incidence estimates using a combination of synthetic cohort and recency biomarker approaches in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.

Introduction

Methods

Results

Discussion

Conclusion

Publications

Population-level HIV incidence estimates using a combination of synthetic cohort and recency biomarker approaches in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets