Do hotspots fuel malaria transmission: a village-scale spatio-temporal analysis of a 2-year cohort study in The Gambia.
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ABSTRACT: Background
Despite the biological plausibility of hotspots fueling malaria transmission, the evidence to support this concept has been mixed. If transmission spreads from high burden to low burden households in a consistent manner, then this could have important implications for control and elimination program development.Methods
Data from a longitudinal cohort in The Gambia was analyzed. All consenting individuals residing in 12 villages across the country were sampled monthly from June (dry season) to December 2013 (wet season), in April 2014 (mid dry season), and monthly from June to December 2014. A study nurse stationed within each village recorded passively detected malaria episodes between visits. Plasmodium falciparum infections were determined by polymerase chain reaction and analyzed using a geostatistical model.Results
Household-level observed monthly incidence ranged from 0 to 0.50 infection per person (interquartile range = 0.02-0.10) across the sampling months, and high burden households exist across all study villages. There was limited evidence of a spatio-temporal pattern at the monthly timescale irrespective of transmission intensity. Within-household transmission was the most plausible hypothesis examined to explain the observed heterogeneity in infections.Conclusions
Within-village malaria transmission patterns are concentrated in a small proportion of high burden households, but patterns are stochastic regardless of endemicity. Our findings support the notion of transmission occurring at the household and village scales but not the use of a targeted approach to interrupt spreading of infections from high to low burden areas within villages in this setting.
SUBMITTER: Stresman GH
PROVIDER: S-EPMC6137946 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:A resurgence of scarlet fever has caused many pediatric infections in East Asia and the United Kingdom. Although scarlet fever in Taiwan has not been a notifiable infectious disease since 2007, the comprehensive national health insurance data can still track its trend. Here, we used data from the open data portal of the Taiwan Centers for Disease Control. The scarlet fever trend was measured by outpatient and hospitalization rates from 2009 to 2017. In order to elucidate the spatio-temporal hotspots, we developed a new method named the spatio-temporal Gi* statistic, and applied Joinpoint regression to compute the annual percentage change (APC). The overall APCs in outpatient and hospitalization were 15.1% (95% CI: 10.3%-20.2%) and 7.7% (95%CI: 4.5% -10.9%). The major two infected groups were children aged 5-9 (outpatient: 0.138 scarlet fever diagnoses per 1,000 visits; inpatient: 2.579 per 1,000 visits) and aged 3-4 (outpatient: 0.084 per 1,000 visits; inpatient: 1.469 per 1,000 visits). We found the counties in eastern Taiwan and offshore counties had the most hotspots in the outpatient setting. In terms of hospitalization, the hotspots mostly occurred in offshore counties close to China. With the help of the spatio-temporal statistic, health workers can set up enhanced laboratory surveillance in those hotspots.
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Project description:BACKGROUND:Despite the large burden of Plasmodium vivax, little is known about its transmission dynamics. This study explored the population structure and spatio-temporal dynamics of P. vivax recurrent infections after radical cure in a two-year cohort study carried out in a rural community of the Peruvian Amazon. METHODS:A total of 37 P. vivax participants recruited in San Carlos community (Peru) between April and December 2008 were treated radically with chloroquine and primaquine and followed up monthly for two years with systematic blood sampling. All samples were screened for malaria parasites and subsequently all P. vivax infections genotyped using 15 microsatellites. Parasite population structure and dynamics were determined by computing different genetic indices and using spatio-temporal statistics. RESULTS:After radical cure, 76% of the study participants experienced one or more recurrent P. vivax infections, most of them sub-patent and asymptomatic. The parasite population displayed limited genetic diversity (He?=?0.49) and clonal structure, with most infections (84%) being monoclonal. Spatio-temporal clusters of specific haplotypes were found throughout the study and persistence of highly frequent haplotypes were observed over several months within the same participants/households. CONCLUSIONS:In San Carlos community, P. vivax recurrences were commonly observed after radical treatment, and characterized by asymptomatic, sub-patent and clustered infections (within and between individuals from a few neighbouring households). Moreover low genetic diversity as well as parasite inbreeding are likely to define a clonal parasite population which has important implications on the malaria epidemiology of the study area.
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