Militarization fails to enhance police safety or reduce crime but may harm police reputation.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Mummolo J
PROVIDER: S-EPMC6140536 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description: Not available
| S-EPMC9831287 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Neural networks are a machine learning method that excel in solving classification and forecasting problems. They have also been shown to be a useful tool for working with big data oriented environments such as law enforcement. This article reviews and examines existing research on the utilization of neural networks for forecasting crime and other police decision making problem solving. Neural network models to predict specific types of crime using location and time information and to predict a crime's location when given the crime and time of day are developed to demonstrate the application of neural networks to police decision making. The neural network crime prediction models utilize geo-spatiality to provide immediate information on crimes to enhance law enforcement decision making. The neural network models are able to predict the type of crime being committed 16.4% of the time for 27 different types of crime or 27.1% of the time when similar crimes are grouped into seven categories of crime. The location prediction neural networks are able to predict the zip code location or adjacent location 31.2% of the time.
| S-EPMC8529125 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Despite the common belief that police presence reduces crime, there is mixed evidence of such causal effects in major Latin America cities. In this work we identify the casual relationship between police presence and criminal events by using a large dataset of a randomized controlled police intervention in Bogotá D.C., Colombia. We use an Instrumental Variables approach to identify the causal effect of interest. Then we consistently estimate a Conditional Logit discrete choice model with aggregate data that allow us to identify agents' utilities for crime location using Two Stage Least Squares. The estimated parameters allow us to compute the police own and cross-elasticities of crime for each of the spatial locations and to evaluate different police patrolling strategies. The elasticity of crime to police presence is, on average across spatial locations, -0.26 for violent crime, -0.38 for property crime and -0.38 for total crime, all statistically significant. Estimates of cross-elasticities are close to zero; however, spillover effects are non-negligible. Counterfactual analysis of different police deployment strategies show, for an optimal allocating algorithm, an average reduction in violent crime of 7.09%, a reduction in property crimes of 8.48% and a reduction in total crimes of 5.15% at no additional cost. These results show the potential efficiency gains of using the model to deploy police resources in the city without increasing the total police time required.
| S-EPMC10931527 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The US government maintains that local sanctuary policies prevent deportations of violent criminals and increase crime. This report tests those claims by combining Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) deportation data and Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) crime data with data on the implementation dates of sanctuary policies between 2010 and 2015. Sanctuary policies reduced deportations of people who were fingerprinted by states or counties by about one-third. Those policies also changed the composition of deportations, reducing deportations of people with no criminal convictions by half-without affecting deportations of people with violent convictions. Sanctuary policies also had no detectable effect on crime rates. These findings suggest that sanctuary policies, although effective at reducing deportations, do not threaten public safety.
| S-EPMC7959582 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe purpose of this study was to examine associations between several types of police-recorded crime (violent, nonviolent, and homicide) and cardiometabolic health (obesity and elevated blood pressure [BP]), and to determine if associations were modified by age and sex.Methods and resultsWe analyzed cross-sectional data (N=14 799 patients) from 3 primary care clinics at an academic medical center in Chicago, IL. Patient-level health data were obtained from the electronic health record (June 1, 2014-May 31, 2015), including body mass index and BP, and linked to the City of Chicago Police Data Portal. Geocoded crime counts were aggregated to census tract and calculated as the annual crime rate per 1000 population. Generalized linear mixed models were used to assess obesity and BP status as a function of crime rate quartile, controlling for patient, clinic, and neighborhood characteristics. Median violent crime rates in each quartile ranged from 15 to 84 per 1000 population. Median age was 56 years (interquartile range, 38-72 years); 42% of patients were obese and 33% had elevated BP. Compared with patients living in the lowest quartile, patients living in the highest quartile for violent crime had 53% higher adjusted odds of obesity (95% confidence interval, 1.15-2.03) and 25% higher adjusted odds of elevated BP (95% confidence interval, 1.01-1.56). In subanalyses examining homicide, a relatively rare event, exposure was not associated with obesity and was inconsistently associated with elevated BP.ConclusionsIn a densely populated, high-poverty region in Chicago, recurrent exposure to high rates of violent crime was consistently associated with obesity and elevated BP, but rare exposure to homicide was not.
| S-EPMC5907588 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Importance:People with mental illness are more likely to have contact with the criminal justice system, but research to date has focused on risk of offense perpetration, while less is known about risk of being subjected to crime and violence. Objectives:To establish the incidence of being subjected to all types of criminal offenses, and by violent crimes separately, after onset of mental illness across the full diagnostic spectrum compared with those in the population without mental illness. Design, Setting, and Participants:This investigation was a longitudinal national cohort study using register data in Denmark. Participants were a cohort of more than 2 million persons born between 1965 and 1998 and followed up from 2001 or from their 15th birthday until December 31, 2013. Analysis was undertaken from November 2016 until February 2018. Exposures:Cohort members were followed up for onset of mental illness, recorded as first contact with outpatient or inpatient mental health services. Diagnoses across the full spectrum of psychiatric diagnoses were considered separately for men and women. Main Outcomes and Measures:Incidence rate ratios (IRRs) were estimated for first subjection to crime event (any crime and violent crime) reported to police after onset of mental illness. The IRRs were adjusted for cohort member's own criminal offending, in addition to several sociodemographic factors. Results:In a total cohort of 2 058 063 (48.7% male; 51.3% female), the adjusted IRRs for being subjected to crime associated with any mental disorder were 1.49 (95% CI, 1.46-1.51) for men and 1.64 (95% CI, 1.61-1.66) for women. The IRRs were higher for being subjected to violent crime at 1.76 (95% CI, 1.72-1.80) for men and 2.72 (95% CI, 2.65-2.79) for women. The strongest associations were for persons diagnosed as having substance use disorders and personality disorders, but significant risk elevations were found across almost all diagnostic groups examined. Conclusions and Relevance:Onset of mental illness is associated with increased risk of exposure to crime, and violent crime in particular. Elevated risk is not confined to specific diagnostic groups. Women with mental illness are especially vulnerable to being subjected to crime. Individual's own offending accounts for some but not all of the increased vulnerability to being subjected to crime.
| S-EPMC6071849 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The New York Police Department (NYPD) under Operation Impact deployed extra police officers to high crime areas designated as impact zones. Officers were encouraged to conduct investigative stops in these areas. City officials credited the program as one of the leading causes of New York City's low crime rate. We tested the effects of Operation Impact on reported crimes and arrests from 2004 to 2012 using a difference-in-differences approach. We used Poisson regression models to compare differences in crime and arrest counts before and after census block groups were designated as impact zones compared to census block groups in the same NYPD precincts but outside impact zones. Impact zones were significantly associated with reductions in total reported crimes, assaults, burglaries, drug violations, misdemeanor crimes, felony property crimes, robberies, and felony violent crimes. Impact zones were significantly associated with increases in total reported arrests, arrests for burglary, arrests for weapons, arrests for misdemeanor crimes, and arrests for property felony crimes. Impact zones were also significantly associated with increases in investigative stops for suspected crimes, but only the increase in stops made based on probable cause indicators of criminal behaviors were associated with crime reductions. The largest increase in investigative stops in impact zones was based on indicators of suspicious behavior that had no measurable effect on crime. The findings suggest that saturating high crime blocks with police helped reduce crime in New York City, but that the bulk of the investigative stops did not play an important role in the crime reductions. The findings indicate that crime reduction can be achieved with more focused investigative stops.
| S-EPMC4911104 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Visual, multisensory and cognitive illusions in magic performances provide new windows into the psychological and neural principles of perception, attention, and cognition. We investigated a magic effect consisting of a coin "vanish" (i.e., the perceptual disappearance of a coin after a simulated toss from hand to hand). Previous research has shown that magicians can use joint attention cues such as their own gaze direction to strengthen the observers' perception of magic. Here we presented naïve observers with videos including real and simulated coin tosses to determine if joint attention might enhance the illusory perception of simulated coin tosses. The observers' eye positions were measured, and their perceptual responses simultaneously recorded via button press. To control for the magician's use of joint attention cues, we occluded his head in half of the trials. We found that subjects did not direct their gaze at the magician's face at the time of the coin toss, whether the face was visible or occluded, and that the presence of the magician's face did not enhance the illusion. Thus, our results show that joint attention is not necessary for the perception of this effect. We conclude that social misdirection is redundant and possibly detracting to this very robust sleight-of-hand illusion. We further determined that subjects required multiple trials to effectively distinguish real from simulated tosses; thus the illusion was resilient to repeated viewing.
| S-EPMC3202226 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectiveSelf-harm is associated with violent offending. However, little is known about young people who engage in "dual-harm" behavior. The authors investigated antecedents, clinical features, and life characteristics distinguishing dual-harming adolescents from those who self-harm only.MethodsParticipants were from the Environmental Risk (E-Risk) Longitudinal Twin Study, a nationally representative U.K. cohort of 2,232 twins born in 1994 and 1995. Self-harm in adolescence was assessed through interviews at age 18. Violent offending was assessed using a computer questionnaire at age 18 and police records through age 22. Risk factors were assessed between ages 5 and 12. Adolescent mental health, victimization, personality functioning, and use of support services were measured at age 18.ResultsSelf-harm was associated with violent crime (odds ratio=3.50, 95% CI=2.61-4.70), even after accounting for familial risk factors. Dual harmers had been victims of violence from childhood and exhibited lower childhood self-control and lower childhood IQ than self-only harmers. Dual harmers experienced higher rates of concurrent psychotic symptoms and substance dependence. They also exhibited distinct personality styles characterized by resistance to change and by emotional and interpersonal lability. However, dual harmers were not more likely than self-only harmers to have contact with mental health services.ConclusionsDual harmers have self-control difficulties and are immersed in violence from a young age. A treatment- rather than punishment-oriented approach is indicated to meet these individuals' needs. Connecting self-harming adolescents with delinquency-reduction programs and transdiagnostic approaches that target self-regulation may reduce harmful behaviors. Preventing childhood maltreatment and implementing strategies to reduce victimization exposure could mitigate risk for both internalized and externalized violence.
| S-EPMC6397074 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectiveTo examine violent crime in relation to sleep and explore pathways, including psychological distress, safety perceptions and perceived police presence, that may account for associations.MethodsIn 2018, 515 predominantly Black American (94%) adults (Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA) provided survey data: actigraphy-assessed sleep duration and wakefulness after sleep onset (WASO). We estimated pathways from violent crime (2016-2018) to sleep through psychological distress, perceptions of safety and perceived adequacy of police presence.ResultsWASO was most strongly associated with violent crimes that were within 1/10 mile of the participant's home and within the month preceding the interview. Violent crimes were associated with lower perceived safety (β=-0.13 (0.03), p<0.001) and greater WASO (β=5.96 (2.80), p=0.03). We observed no indirect associations between crime and either WASO or sleep duration through any of the tested mediators. Crime was not associated with sleep duration.ConclusionsWe demonstrated that more proximal and more recent violent crimes were associated with reduced perceived safety and worse WASO. Differential exposure to violent crime among Black Americans may contribute to health disparities by reducing residents' perceived safety and sleep health.
| S-EPMC8152929 | biostudies-literature