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Considerations for monitoring population trends of colonial waterbirds using the effective number of breeders and census estimates.

ABSTRACT: Detecting trends in population size fluctuations is a major focus in ecology, evolution, and conservation biology. Populations of colonial waterbirds have been monitored using demographic approaches to determine annual census size (N_a). We propose the addition of genetic estimates of the effective number of breeders (N_b) as indirect measures of the risk of loss of genetic diversity to improve the evaluation of demographics and increase the accuracy of trend estimates in breeding colonies. Here, we investigated which methods of the estimation of N_b are more precise under conditions of moderate genetic diversity, limited sample sizes and few microsatellite loci, as often occurs with natural populations. We used the wood stork as a model species and we offered a workflow that researchers can follow for monitoring bird breeding colonies. Our approach started with simulations using five estimators of N_b and the theoretical results were validated with empirical data collected from breeding colonies settled in the Brazilian Pantanal wetland. In parallel, we estimated census size using a corrected method based on counting active nests. Both in simulations and in natural populations, the approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) and sibship assignment (SA) methods yielded more precise estimates than the linkage disequilibrium, heterozygosity excess, and molecular coancestry methods. In particular, the ABC method performed best with few loci and small sample sizes, while the other estimators required larger sample sizes and at least 13 loci to not underestimate N_b. Moreover, according to our N_b/N_a estimates (values were often ≤0.1), the wood stork colonies evaluated could be facing the loss of genetic diversity. We demonstrate that the combination of genetic and census estimates is a useful approach for monitoring natural breeding bird populations. This methodology has been recommended for populations of rare species or with a known history of population decline to support conservation efforts.

SUBMITTER: da Silva FM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6144984 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:The ratio of the effective number of breeders (Nb) to the adult census size (Na), Nb/Na, approximates the departure from the standard capacity of a population to maintain genetic diversity in one reproductive season. This information is relevant for assessing population status, understanding evolutionary processes operating at local scales, and unraveling how life-history traits affect these processes. However, our knowledge on Nb/Na ratios in nature is limited because estimation of both parameters is challenging. The sibship frequency (SF) method is adequate for reliable Nb estimation because it is based on sibship and parentage reconstruction from genetic marker data, thereby providing demographic inferences that can be compared with field-based information. In addition, capture-mark-recapture (CMR) robust design methods are well suited for Na estimation in seasonal-breeding species. We used tadpole genotypes of three pond-breeding amphibian species (Epidalea calamita, Hyla molleri, and Pelophylax perezi, n = 73-96 single-cohort tadpoles/species genotyped at 15-17 microsatellite loci) and candidate parental genotypes (n = 94-300 adults/species) to estimate Nb by the SF method. To assess the reliability of Nb estimates, we compared sibship and parentage inferences with field-based information and checked for the convergence of results in replicated subsampled analyses. Finally, we used CMR data from a 6-year monitoring program to estimate annual Na in the three species and calculate the Nb/Na ratio. Reliable ratios were obtained for E. calamita (Nb/Na = 0.18-0.28) and P. perezi (0.5), but in H. molleri, Na could not be estimated and genetic information proved insufficient for reliable Nb estimation. Integrative demographic studies taking full advantage of SF and CMR methods can provide accurate estimates of the Nb/Na ratio in seasonal-breeding species. Importantly, the SF method provides results that can be readily evaluated for reliability. This represents a good opportunity for obtaining robust demographic inferences with wide applications for evolutionary and conservation research.

Project description:BackgroundThe effective reproduction number (Rt) quantifies the average number of secondary cases caused by one person with an infectious disease. Near-real-time monitoring of Rt during an outbreak is a major indicator used to monitor changes in disease transmission and assess the effectiveness of interventions. The estimation of Rt usually requires the identification of infected cases in the population, which can prove challenging with the available data, especially when asymptomatic people or with mild symptoms are not usually screened. The purpose of this study was to perform sensitivity analysis of Rt estimates for COVID-19 surveillance in France based on three data sources with different sensitivities and specificities for identifying infected cases.MethodsWe applied a statistical method developed by Cori et al. to estimate Rt using (1) confirmed cases identified from positive virological tests in the population, (2) suspected cases recorded by a national network of emergency departments, and (3) COVID-19 hospital admissions recorded by a national administrative system to manage hospital organization.ResultsRt estimates in France from May 27, 2020, to August 12, 2022, showed similar temporal trends regardless of the dataset. Estimates based on the daily number of confirmed cases provided an earlier signal than the two other sources, with an average lag of 3 and 6 days for estimates based on emergency department visits and hospital admissions, respectively.ConclusionThe COVID-19 experience confirmed that monitoring temporal changes in Rt was a key indicator to help the public health authorities control the outbreak in real time. However, gaining access to data on all infected people in the population in order to estimate Rt is not straightforward in practice. As this analysis has shown, the opportunity to use more readily available data to estimate Rt trends, provided that it is highly correlated with the spread of infection, provides a practical solution for monitoring the COVID-19 pandemic and indeed any other epidemic.

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Considerations for monitoring population trends of colonial waterbirds using the effective number of breeders and census estimates.

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