Dataset Information

Uncertainties of potentials and recent changes in global yields of major crops resulting from census- and satellite-based yield datasets at multiple resolutions.

ABSTRACT: Global agriculture is under pressure to meet increasing demand for food and agricultural products. There are several global assessments of crop yields, but we know little about the uncertainties of their key findings, as the assessments are driven by the single best yield dataset available when each assessment was conducted. Recently, two different spatially explicit, global, historical yield datasets, one based on agricultural census and the other largely based on satellite remote sensing, became available. Using these datasets, we compare the similarities and differences in global yield gaps, trend patterns, growth rates and changes in year-to-year variability. We analyzed maize, rice, wheat and soybean for the period of 1981 to 2008 at four resolutions (0.083°, 0.5°, 1.0° and 2.0°). Although estimates varied by dataset and resolution, the global mean annual growth rates of 1.7-1.8%, 1.5-1.7%, 1.1-1.3% and 1.4-1.6% for maize, rice, wheat and soybean, respectively, are not on track to double crop production by 2050. Potential production increases that can be attributed to closing yield gaps estimated from the satellite-based dataset are almost twice those estimated from the census-based dataset. Detected yield variability changes in rice and wheat are sensitive to the choice of dataset and resolution, but they are relatively robust for maize and soybean. Estimates of yield gaps and variability changes are more uncertain than those of yield trend patterns and growth rates. These tendencies are consistent across crops. Efforts to reduce uncertainties are required to gain a better understanding of historical change and crop production potential to better inform agricultural policies and investments.

SUBMITTER: Iizumi T

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6147479 | biostudies-literature | 2018

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Uncertainties of potentials and recent changes in global yields of major crops resulting from census- and satellite-based yield datasets at multiple resolutions.

Iizumi Toshichika T Kotoku Mizuki M Kim Wonsik W West Paul C PC Gerber James S JS Brown Molly E ME

PloS one 20180920 9

Global agriculture is under pressure to meet increasing demand for food and agricultural products. There are several global assessments of crop yields, but we know little about the uncertainties of their key findings, as the assessments are driven by the single best yield dataset available when each assessment was conducted. Recently, two different spatially explicit, global, historical yield datasets, one based on agricultural census and the other largely based on satellite remote sensing, beca ...[more]

PMID: 30235237

Similar Datasets

Project description:Perennial bioenergy crops have significant potential to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and contribute to climate change mitigation by substituting for fossil fuels; yet delivering significant GHG savings will require substantial land-use change, globally. Over the last decade, research has delivered improved understanding of the environmental benefits and risks of this transition to perennial bioenergy crops, addressing concerns that the impacts of land conversion to perennial bioenergy crops could result in increased rather than decreased GHG emissions. For policymakers to assess the most cost-effective and sustainable options for deployment and climate change mitigation, synthesis of these studies is needed to support evidence-based decision making. In 2015, a workshop was convened with researchers, policymakers and industry/business representatives from the UK, EU and internationally. Outcomes from global research on bioenergy land-use change were compared to identify areas of consensus, key uncertainties, and research priorities. Here, we discuss the strength of evidence for and against six consensus statements summarising the effects of land-use change to perennial bioenergy crops on the cycling of carbon, nitrogen and water, in the context of the whole life-cycle of bioenergy production. Our analysis suggests that the direct impacts of dedicated perennial bioenergy crops on soil carbon and nitrous oxide are increasingly well understood and are often consistent with significant life cycle GHG mitigation from bioenergy relative to conventional energy sources. We conclude that the GHG balance of perennial bioenergy crop cultivation will often be favourable, with maximum GHG savings achieved where crops are grown on soils with low carbon stocks and conservative nutrient application, accruing additional environmental benefits such as improved water quality. The analysis reported here demonstrates there is a mature and increasingly comprehensive evidence base on the environmental benefits and risks of bioenergy cultivation which can support the development of a sustainable bioenergy industry.

Dataset Information

Uncertainties of potentials and recent changes in global yields of major crops resulting from census- and satellite-based yield datasets at multiple resolutions.

Publications

Uncertainties of potentials and recent changes in global yields of major crops resulting from census- and satellite-based yield datasets at multiple resolutions.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets