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Superstatistical distribution of daily precipitation extremes: A worldwide assessment.

ABSTRACT: Maximum annual daily precipitation is a fundamental hydrologic variable that does not attain asymptotic conditions. Thus the classical extreme value theory (i.e., the Fisher-Tippett's theorem) does not apply and the recurrent use of the Generalized Extreme Value distribution (GEV) to estimate precipitation quantiles for structural-design purposes could be inappropriate. In order to address this issue, we first determine the exact distribution of maximum annual daily precipitation starting from a Markov chain and in a closed analytical form under the hypothesis of stochastic independence. As a second step, we formulate a superstatistics conjecture of daily precipitation, meaning that we assume that the parameters of this exact distribution vary from a year to another according to probability distributions, which is supported by empirical evidence. We test this conjecture using the world GHCN database to perform a worldwide assessment of this superstatistical distribution of daily precipitation extremes. The performances of the superstatistical distribution and the GEV are tested against data using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic. By considering the issue of model's extrapolation, that is, the evaluation of the estimated model against data not used in calibration, we show that the superstatistical distribution provides more robust estimations than the GEV, which tends to underestimate (7-13%) the quantile associated to the largest cumulative frequency. The superstatistical distribution, on the other hand, tends to overestimate (10-14%) this quantile, which is a safer option for hydraulic design. The parameters of the proposed superstatistical distribution are made available for all 20,561 worldwide sites considered in this work.

SUBMITTER: De Michele C

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6155091 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Superstatistical distribution of daily precipitation extremes: A worldwide assessment.

De Michele Carlo C Avanzi Francesco F

Scientific reports 20180921 1

Maximum annual daily precipitation is a fundamental hydrologic variable that does not attain asymptotic conditions. Thus the classical extreme value theory (i.e., the Fisher-Tippett's theorem) does not apply and the recurrent use of the Generalized Extreme Value distribution (GEV) to estimate precipitation quantiles for structural-design purposes could be inappropriate. In order to address this issue, we first determine the exact distribution of maximum annual daily precipitation starting from a ...[more]

PMID: 30242178

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Project description:BackgroundPrecipitation is predicted to become more variable in the western United States, meaning years of above and below average precipitation will become more common. Periods of extreme precipitation are major drivers of interannual variability in ecosystem functioning in water limited communities, but how ecosystems respond to these extremes over the long-term may shift with precipitation means and variances. Long-term changes in ecosystem functional response could reflect compensatory changes in species composition or species reaching physiological thresholds at extreme precipitation levels.MethodsWe conducted a five year precipitation manipulation experiment in a sagebrush steppe ecosystem in Idaho, United States. We used drought and irrigation treatments (approximately 50% decrease/increase) to investigate whether ecosystem functional response remains consistent under sustained high or low precipitation. We recorded data on aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP), species abundance, and soil moisture. We fit a generalized linear mixed effects model to determine if the relationship between ANPP and soil moisture differed among treatments. We used nonmetric multidimensional scaling to quantify community composition over the five years.ResultsEcosystem functional response, defined as the relationship between soil moisture and ANPP, was similar among irrigation and control treatments, but the drought treatment had a greater slope than the control treatment. However, all estimates for the effect of soil moisture on ANPP overlapped zero, indicating the relationship is weak and uncertain regardless of treatment. There was also large spatial variation in ANPP within-years, which contributes to the uncertainty of the soil moisture effect. Plant community composition was remarkably stable over the course of the experiment and did not differ among treatments.DiscussionDespite some evidence that ecosystem functional response became more sensitive under sustained drought conditions, the response of ANPP to soil moisture was consistently weak and community composition was stable. The similarity of ecosystem functional responses across treatments was not related to compensatory shifts at the plant community level, but instead may reflect the insensitivity of the dominant species to soil moisture. These species may be successful precisely because they have evolved life history strategies that buffer them against precipitation variability.

Dataset Information

Superstatistical distribution of daily precipitation extremes: A worldwide assessment.

Publications

Superstatistical distribution of daily precipitation extremes: A worldwide assessment.

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