Spatio-temporal analysis of Plasmodium falciparum prevalence to understand the past and chart the future of malaria control in Kenya.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Macharia PM
PROVIDER: S-EPMC6158896 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Sep
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Publications
Spatio-temporal analysis of Plasmodium falciparum prevalence to understand the past and chart the future of malaria control in Kenya.
Macharia Peter M PM Giorgi Emanuele E Noor Abdisalan M AM Waqo Ejersa E Kiptui Rebecca R Okiro Emelda A EA Snow Robert W RW
Malaria journal 20180926 1
<h4>Background</h4>Spatial and temporal malaria risk maps are essential tools to monitor the impact of control, evaluate priority areas to reorient intervention approaches and investments in malaria endemic countries. Here, the analysis of 36 years data on Plasmodium falciparum prevalence is used to understand the past and chart a future for malaria control in Kenya by confidently highlighting areas within important policy relevant thresholds to allow either the revision of malaria strategies to ...[more]
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Project description:BackgroundThe global decline of malaria burden and goals for elimination has led to an increased interest in the fine-scale epidemiology of malaria. Micro-geographic heterogeneity of malaria infection could have implications for designing targeted small-area interventions.MethodsTwo-year longitudinal cohort study data were used to explore the spatial and spatio-temporal distribution of malaria episodes in 2040 children aged < 10 years in 16 villages near the Gilgel-Gibe hydropower dam in Southwest Ethiopia. All selected households (HHs) were geo-referenced, and children were followed up through weekly house-to-house visits for two consecutive years to identify febrile episodes of P. falciparum and P. vivax infections. After confirming the spatial dependence of malaria episodes with Ripley's K function, SatScanTM was used to identify purely spatial and space-time clusters (hotspots) of annual malaria incidence for 2 years follow-up: year 1 (July 2008-June 2009) and year 2 (July 2009-June 2010).ResultsIn total, 685 P. falciparum episodes (in 492 HHs) and 385 P. vivax episodes (in 290 HHs) were identified, representing respectively incidence rates of 14.6 (95% CI: 13.4-15.6) and 8.2 (95% CI: 7.3-9.1) per 1000 child-months at risk. In year 1, the most likely (128 HHs with 63 episodes, RR = 2.1) and secondary (15 HHs with 12 episodes, RR = 5.31) clusters of P. vivax incidence were found respectively in southern and north-western villages; while in year 2, the most likely cluster was located only in north-western villages (85 HHs with 16 episodes, RR = 4.4). Instead, most likely spatial clusters of P. falciparum incidence were consistently located in villages south of the dam in both years: year 1 (167 HHs with 81 episodes, RR = 1.8) and year 2 (133 HHs with 67 episodes, RR = 2.2). Space-time clusters in southern villages for P. vivax were found in August-November 2008 in year 1 and between November 2009 and February 2010 in year 2; while for P. falciparum, they were found in September-November 2008 in year 1 and October-November 2009 in year 2.ConclusionHotspots of P. falciparum incidence in children were more stable at the geographical level and over time compared to those of P. vivax incidence during the study period.
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Project description:BACKGROUND: In sub-Saharan Africa, Plasmodium falciparum and hepatitis A (HAV) infections are common, especially in children. Co-infections with these two pathogens may therefore occur, but it is unknown if temporal clustering exists. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We studied the pattern of co-infection of P. falciparum malaria and acute HAV in Kenyan children under the age of 5 years in a cohort of children presenting with uncomplicated P. falciparum malaria. HAV status was determined during a 3-month follow-up period. DISCUSSION: Among 222 cases of uncomplicated malaria, 10 patients were anti-HAV IgM positive. The incidence of HAV infections during P. falciparum malaria was 1.7 (95% CI 0.81-3.1) infections/person-year while the cumulative incidence of HAV over the 3-month follow-up period was 0.27 (95% CI 0.14-0.50) infections/person-year. Children with or without HAV co-infections had similar mean P. falciparum asexual parasite densities at presentation (31,000/µL vs. 34,000/µL, respectively), largely exceeding the pyrogenic threshold of 2,500 parasites/µL in this population and minimizing risk of over-diagnosis of malaria as an explanation. CONCLUSION: The observed temporal association between acute HAV and P. falciparum malaria suggests that co-infections of these two hepatotrophic human pathogens may result from changes in host susceptibility. Testing this hypothesis will require larger prospective studies.
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Project description:BackgroundMalaria in western Kenya is currently characterized by sustained high Plasmodial transmission and infection resurgence, despite positive responses in some areas following intensified malaria control interventions since 2006. This study aimed to evaluate long-term changes in malaria transmission profiles and to assess patterns of asymptomatic malaria infections in school children aged 5-15 years at three sites in western Kenya with heterogeneous malaria transmission and simultaneous malaria control interventions.MethodsThe study was conducted from 2018 to 2019 and is based on data taken every third year from 2005 to 2014 during a longitudinal parasitological and mosquito adult surveillance and malaria control programme that was initiated in 2002 in the villages of Kombewa, Iguhu, and Marani. Plasmodium spp. infections were determined using microscopy. Mosquito samples were identified to species and host blood meal source and sporozoite infections were assayed using polymerase chain reaction.ResultsPlasmodium falciparum was the only malaria parasite evaluated during this study (2018-2019). Asymptomatic malaria parasite prevalence in school children decreased in all sites from 2005 to 2008. However, since 2011, parasite prevalence has resurged by > 40% in Kombewa and Marani. Malaria vector densities showed similar reductions from 2005 to 2008 in all sites, rose steadily until 2014, and decreased again. Overall, Kombewa had a higher risk of infection compared to Iguhu (χ2 = 552.52, df = 1, P < 0.0001) and Marani (χ2 = 1127.99, df = 1, P < 0.0001). There was a significant difference in probability of non-infection during malaria episodes (log-rank test, χ2 = 617.59, df = 2, P < 0.0001) in the study sites, with Kombewa having the least median time of non-infection during malaria episodes. Gender bias toward males in infection was observed (χ2 = 27.17, df = 1, P < 0.0001). The annual entomological inoculation rates were 5.12, 3.65, and 0.50 infective bites/person/year at Kombewa, Iguhu, and Marani, respectively, during 2018 to 2019.ConclusionsMalaria prevalence in western Kenya remains high and has resurged in some sites despite continuous intervention efforts. Targeting malaria interventions to those with asymptomatic infections who serve as human reservoirs might decrease malaria transmission and prevent resurgences. Longitudinal monitoring enables detection of changes in parasitological and entomological profiles and provides core baseline data for the evaluation of vector interventions and guidance for future planning of malaria control.
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Project description:As malaria control programmes concentrate their efforts towards malaria elimination a better understanding of malaria transmission patterns at fine spatial resolution units becomes necessary. Defining spatial units that consider transmission heterogeneity, human movement and migration will help to set up achievable malaria elimination milestones and guide the creation of efficient operational administrative control units. Using a combination of genetic and epidemiological data we defined a malaria transmission unit as the area contributing 95% of malaria cases diagnosed at the catchment facility located in the town of Guapi in the South Pacific Coast of Colombia. We provide data showing that P. falciparum malaria transmission is heterogeneous in time and space and analysed, using topological data analysis, the spatial connectivity, at the micro epidemiological level, between parasite populations circulating within the unit. To illustrate the necessity to evaluate the efficacy of malaria control measures within the transmission unit in order to increase the efficiency of the malaria control effort, we provide information on the size of the asymptomatic reservoir, the nature of parasite genotypes associated with drug resistance as well as the frequency of the Pfhrp2/3 deletion associated with false negatives when using Rapid Diagnostic Tests.
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