Dataset Information

Predicting Risk of Imported Disease with Demographics: Geospatial Analysis of Imported Malaria in Minnesota, 2010-2014.

ABSTRACT: Although immigrants who visit friends and relatives (VFRs) account for most of the travel-acquired malaria cases in the United States, there is limited evidence on community-level risk factors and best practices for prevention appropriate for various VFR groups. Using 2010-2014 malaria case reports, sociodemographic census data, and health services data, we explored and mapped community-level characteristics to understand who is at risk and where imported malaria infections occur in Minnesota. We examined associations with malaria incidence using Poisson and negative binomial regression. Overall, mean incidence was 0.4 cases per 1,000 sub-Saharan African (SSA)-born in communities reporting malaria, with cases concentrated in two areas of Minneapolis-St. Paul. We found moderate and positive associations between imported malaria and counts of SSA- and Asian-born populations, respectively. Our findings may inform future studies to understand the knowledge, attitudes, and practices of VFR travelers and facilitate and focus intervention strategies to reduce imported malaria in the United States.

SUBMITTER: Lee EH

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6159573 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Predicting Risk of Imported Disease with Demographics: Geospatial Analysis of Imported Malaria in Minnesota, 2010-2014.

Lee Elizabeth H EH Miller Robin H RH Masuoka Penny P Schiffman Elizabeth E Wanduragala Danushka M DM DeFraites Robert R Dunlop Stephen J SJ Stauffer William M WM Hickey Patrick W PW

The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene 20181001 4

Although immigrants who visit friends and relatives (VFRs) account for most of the travel-acquired malaria cases in the United States, there is limited evidence on community-level risk factors and best practices for prevention appropriate for various VFR groups. Using 2010-2014 malaria case reports, sociodemographic census data, and health services data, we explored and mapped community-level characteristics to understand who is at risk and where imported malaria infections occur in Minnesota. W ...[more]

PMID: 30062987

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Project description:BackgroundA key issue in achieving and sustaining malaria elimination is the need to prevent local transmission arising from imported cases of malaria. The likelihood of this occurring depends on a range of local factors, and these can be used to allocate resources to contain transmission. Therefore, a risk assessment and management strategy is required to identify risk indexes for malaria transmission when imported cases occur. These risks also need to be quantified and combined to give a weighted risk index score. This can then be used to allocate the resources to each administrative region to prevent transmission according to the degree of risk.MethodsA list of potential risk indexes were generated from a literature review, expert consultation and panel discussion. These were initially classified into 4 first-level indexes including infection source, transmitting conditions, population vulnerability and control capacity. Each of these was then expanded into more detailed second-level indexes. The Delphi method was then used to obtain expert opinion to review and revise these risk indexes over two consecutive rounds to quantify agreement among experts as to their level of importance. Risk indexes were included in the final Transmission Risk Framework if they achieved a weighted importance score ≥ 4. The Analytic Hierarchy Process was then used to calculate the weight allocated to each of the final risk indexes. This was then used to create an assessment framework that can be used to evaluate local transmission risk in different areas.ResultsTwo rounds of Delphi consultation were conducted. Twenty-three experts were used at each round with 100% recovery rate of participant questionnaires. The coordination coefficients (W) for the two rounds of Delphi consultation were 0.341 and 0.423, respectively (P < 0.05). Three first-level indexes and 13 second-level indexes were identified. The Analytic Hierarchy Process was performed to calculate the weight of the indexes. For the first-level indexes, infection source, transmitting conditions, and control capacity, the index weight was 0.5396, 0.2970 and 0.1634 respectively. For the three top second-level indexes, number of imported malaria cases, Anopheles species, and awareness of timely medical visit of patient, the index weight was 0.3382, 0.2475, and 0.1509 respectively.ConclusionsAn indexed system of transmission risk assessment for imported malaria was established using the Delphi method and the Analytic Hierarchy Process. This was assessed to be an objective and practical tool for assessing transmission risk from imported cases of malaria into China.

Dataset Information

Predicting Risk of Imported Disease with Demographics: Geospatial Analysis of Imported Malaria in Minnesota, 2010-2014.

Publications

Predicting Risk of Imported Disease with Demographics: Geospatial Analysis of Imported Malaria in Minnesota, 2010-2014.

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