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Application of a Multistate Model to Evaluate Visit Burden and Patient Stability to Improve Sustainability of Human Immunodeficiency Virus Treatment in Zambia.


ABSTRACT: Background:Differentiated service delivery (DSD) for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected persons who are clinically stable on antiretroviral therapy (ART) has been embraced as a solution to decrease access barriers and improve quality of care. However, successful DSD implementation is dependent on understanding the prevalence, incidence, and durability of clinical stability. Methods:We evaluated visit data in a cohort of HIV-infected adults who made at least 1 visit between 1 March 2013 and 28 February 2015 at 56 clinics in Zambia. We described visit frequency and appointment intervals using conventional stability criteria and used a mixed-effects linear regression model to identify predictors of appointment interval. We developed a multistate model to characterize patient stability over time and calculated incidence rates for transition between states. Results:Overall, 167819 patients made 3418018 post-ART initiation visits between 2004 and 2015. Fifty-four percent of visits were pharmacy refill-only visits, and 24% occurred among patients on ART for >6 months and whose current CD4 was >500 cells/mm3. Median appointment interval at clinician visits was 59 days, and time on ART and current CD4 were not strong predictors of appointment interval. Cumulative incidence of clinical stability was 66.2% at 2 years after enrollment, but transition to instability (31 events per 100 person-years) and lapses in care (41 events per100 person-years) were common. Conclusions:Current facility-based care was characterized by high visit burden due to pharmacy refills and among treatment-experienced patients. Differentiated service delivery models targeted toward stable patients need to be adaptive given that clinical stability was highly transient and lapses in care were common.

SUBMITTER: Roy M 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6160606 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Application of a Multistate Model to Evaluate Visit Burden and Patient Stability to Improve Sustainability of Human Immunodeficiency Virus Treatment in Zambia.

Roy Monika M   Holmes Charles C   Sikazwe Izukanji I   Savory Thea T   Mwanza Mwanza Wa MW   Bolton Moore Carolyn C   Mulenga Kafula K   Czaicki Nancy N   Glidden David V DV   Padian Nancy N   Geng Elvin E  

Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America 20180901 8


<h4>Background</h4>Differentiated service delivery (DSD) for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected persons who are clinically stable on antiretroviral therapy (ART) has been embraced as a solution to decrease access barriers and improve quality of care. However, successful DSD implementation is dependent on understanding the prevalence, incidence, and durability of clinical stability.<h4>Methods</h4>We evaluated visit data in a cohort of HIV-infected adults who made at least 1 visit betwee  ...[more]

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