Dataset Information

A Bayesian Downscaler Model to Estimate Daily PM_2.5 Levels in the Conterminous US.

ABSTRACT: There has been growing interest in extending the coverage of ground particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter ? 2.5 ?m (PM_2.5) monitoring networks based on satellite remote sensing data. With broad spatial and temporal coverage, a satellite-based monitoring network has a strong potential to complement the ground monitor system in terms of the spatiotemporal availability of the air quality data. However, most existing calibration models focus on a relatively small spatial domain and cannot be generalized to a national study. In this paper, we proposed a statistically reliable and interpretable national modeling framework based on Bayesian downscaling methods to be applied to the calibration of the daily ground PM_2.5 concentrations across the conterminous United States using satellite-retrieved aerosol optical depth (AOD) and other ancillary predictors in 2011. Our approach flexibly models the PM_2.5 versus AOD and the potential related geographical factors varying across the climate regions and yields spatial- and temporal-specific parameters to enhance model interpretability. Moreover, our model accurately predicted the national PM_2.5 with an R² at 70% and generated reliable annual and seasonal PM_2.5 concentration maps with its SD. Overall, this modeling framework can be applied to national-scale PM_2.5 exposure assessments and can also quantify the prediction errors.

SUBMITTER: Wang Y

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6164266 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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A Bayesian Downscaler Model to Estimate Daily PM<sub>2.5</sub> Levels in the Conterminous US.

Wang Yikai Y Hu Xuefei X Chang Howard H HH Waller Lance A LA Belle Jessica H JH Liu Yang Y

International journal of environmental research and public health 20180913 9

There has been growing interest in extending the coverage of ground particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter ≤ 2.5 μm (PM<sub>2.5</sub>) monitoring networks based on satellite remote sensing data. With broad spatial and temporal coverage, a satellite-based monitoring network has a strong potential to complement the ground monitor system in terms of the spatiotemporal availability of the air quality data. However, most existing calibration models focus on a relatively small spatial domain and ...[more]

PMID: 30217060

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Project description:Ambient particulate matter of aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5 microns PM2.5) levels in Delhi routinely exceed World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines and Indian National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) for acceptable levels of daily exposure. Only a handful of studies have examined the short-term mortality effects of PM in India, with none from Delhi examining the contribution of PM2.5.ObjectivesWe aimed to analyze the association between short-term PM2.5 exposures and daily nonaccidental mortality in Delhi, India.MethodsUsing generalized additive Poisson regression models, we examined the association between daily PM2.5 exposures and nonaccidental mortality between June 2010 and December 2016. Daily exposures to PM2.5 were estimated using an ensemble averaging technique developed by our research group, and mortality data were obtained from the Municipal Corporations of Delhi and the New Delhi Municipal Council.ResultsMedian exposures to PM2.5 were 91.1 µg/m3 (interquartile range = 68.9, 126.2), with minimum and maximum exposures of 21.4 µg/m3 and 276.7 µg/m3, respectively. Total nonaccidental deaths recorded in Delhi during the study period were 700,512. Each 25 µg/m3 increment in exposure was associated with a 0.8% (95% confidence intervals [CI] = 0.3, 1.3%) increase in daily nonaccidental mortality in the study population and a 1.5% (95% CI = 0.8, 2.2%) increase in mortality among those with 60 years of age or over. The exposure-response relationship was nonlinear in nature, with relative risk rising rapidly before tapering off above 125 µg/m3. Meeting WHO guidelines for acceptable levels of exposure over the study period would have likely averted 17,526 (95% CI = 6,837, 25,589) premature deaths, with older and male populations disproportionately affected.DiscussionThis study provides robust evidence of the impact of short-term exposure to PM2.5 on nonaccidental mortality with important considerations for various stakeholders including policymakers and physicians. Most importantly, we find that reducing exposures significantly below current levels would substantially decrease the mortality burden associated with PM2.5.

Project description:It is well recognized that exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) affects health adversely, yet few studies from South America have documented such associations due to the sparsity of PM2.5 measurements. Lima's topography and aging vehicular fleet results in severe air pollution with limited amounts of monitors to effectively quantify PM2.5 levels for epidemiologic studies. We developed an advanced machine learning model to estimate daily PM2.5 concentrations at a 1 km2 spatial resolution in Lima, Peru from 2010 to 2016. We combined aerosol optical depth (AOD), meteorological fields from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), parameters from the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem), and land use variables to fit a random forest model against ground measurements from 16 monitoring stations. Overall cross-validation R2 (and root mean square prediction error, RMSE) for the random forest model was 0.70 (5.97 μg/m3). Mean PM2.5 for ground measurements was 24.7 μg/m3 while mean estimated PM2.5 was 24.9 μg/m3 in the cross-validation dataset. The mean difference between ground and predicted measurements was -0.09 μg/m3 (Std.Dev. = 5.97 μg/m3), with 94.5% of observations falling within 2 standard deviations of the difference indicating good agreement between ground measurements and predicted estimates. Surface downwards solar radiation, temperature, relative humidity, and AOD were the most important predictors, while percent urbanization, albedo, and cloud fraction were the least important predictors. Comparison of monthly mean measurements between ground and predicted PM2.5 shows good precision and accuracy from our model. Furthermore, mean annual maps of PM2.5 show consistent lower concentrations in the coast and higher concentrations in the mountains, resulting from prevailing coastal winds blown from the Pacific Ocean in the west. Our model allows for construction of long-term historical daily PM2.5 measurements at 1 km2 spatial resolution to support future epidemiological studies.

Project description:BackgroundThe respiratory system of children is vulnerable to exposure to particulate matter (PM) with a diameter of less than 2.5 and 10 μm (PM2.5 and PM10) or even lower.ObjectiveThis study assessed PM10 and PM2.5 levels and respiratory health impacts on children in schools located in an industrialized suburb in Kenya.MethodThe PM10 and PM2.5 levels were sampled from five public primary schools in Athi River Township and a control school during the wet and dry seasons. Outdoor and classroom samples were collected concurrently on an 8-hour mean during school hours on two consecutive days in each school and analyzed using gravimetric techniques. Five hundred and seventy-eight (n = 578) pupils aged 9-14 years from these schools were also evaluated for symptoms of respiratory illnesses and lung function using a questionnaire and spirometric method, respectively, during the same periods.ResultsIndoor median PM10 levels (μg/m3) ranged from 60.8-269.1 and 52.8-232.3 and PM2.5 values (μg/m3) of 17.7-52.4 and 28.5-75.5 during the dry and wet seasons, respectively. The control classrooms had significantly (p <0.05) lower median PM10 levels (μg/m3) of 5.2 and 4.2, and PM2.5 levels (μg/m3) of 3.5 and 3.0 during the respective seasons. Nearly all the classrooms in Athi River schools had PM2.5 and PM10 median levels that exceeded the World Health Organization (WHO) recommended levels. The indoor-to-outdoor ratios varied from 0.35-1.40 and 0.80-2.40 for PM10 and 0.30-0.80 and 0.80-1.40 for PM2.5 during the dry and wet seasons, respectively, suggesting higher levels in the classrooms during the wet season. The relative risk (RR) and odds ratio (OR) presented higher prevalence of respiratory diseases following PM exposure in all the Athi River schools than the control during the dry and wet seasons. At 95% CI, the RR and OR showed strong associations between high PM10 and PM2.5 levels and lung function deficits and vice versa. The association was more prevalent during the wet season.ConclusionsThe study calls for effective indoor air management programs in school environments to reduce PM exposure and respiratory health impacts.Participant consentObtained.Ethics approvalThe research permit and approvals were obtained from the University of Nairobi/Kenyatta National Hospital Ethics and Research Committee (KNH-UoN ERC Reference: P599/08/2016) and the National Commission for Science, Technology and Innovation (Reference: NACOSTI/P/18/4268/25724).Competing interestsThe authors declare no competing financial interests.

Project description:IntroductionDespite the London Underground (LU) handling on average 2.8 million passenger journeys per day, the characteristics and potential health effects of the elevated concentrations of metal-rich PM2.5 found in this subway system are not well understood.MethodsSpatial monitoring campaigns were carried out to characterise the health-relevant chemical and physical properties of PM2.5 across the LU network, including diurnal and day-to-day variability and spatial distribution (above ground, depth below ground and subway line). Population-weighted station PM2.5 rankings were produced to understand the relative importance of concentrations at different stations and on different lines.ResultsThe PM2.5 mass in the LU (mean 88??g?m-3, median 28??g?m-3) was greater than at ambient background locations (mean 19??g?m-3, median 14??g?m-3) and roadside environments in central London (mean 22??g?m-3, median 14??g?m-3). Concentrations varied between lines and locations, with the deepest and shallowest submerged lines being the District (median 4??g?m-3) and Victoria (median 361??g?m-3 but up to 885??g?m-3). Broadly in agreement with other subway systems around the world, sampled LU PM2.5 comprised 47% iron oxide, 7% elemental carbon, 11% organic carbon, and 14% metallic and mineral oxides. Although a relationship between line depth and air quality inside the tube trains was evident, there were clear influences relating to the distance from cleaner outside air and the exchange with cabin air when the doors open. The passenger population-weighted exposure analysis demonstrated a method to identify stations that should be prioritised for remediation to improve air quality.ConclusionPM2.5 concentrations in the LU are many times higher than in other London transport Environments. Failure to include this environment in epidemiological studies of the relationship between PM2.5 and health in London is therefore likely to lead to a large exposure misclassification error. Given the significant contribution of underground PM2.5 to daily exposure, and the differences in composition compared to urban PM2.5, there is a clear need for well-designed studies to better understand the health effects of underground exposure.

Dataset Information

A Bayesian Downscaler Model to Estimate Daily PM2.5 Levels in the Conterminous US.

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A Bayesian Downscaler Model to Estimate Daily PM<sub>2.5</sub> Levels in the Conterminous US.

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A Bayesian Downscaler Model to Estimate Daily PM_2.5 Levels in the Conterminous US.