The mapping of cancer incidence and mortality trends in the UK from 1980-2013 reveals a potential for overdiagnosis.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Oke JL
PROVIDER: S-EPMC6168593 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Oct
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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The mapping of cancer incidence and mortality trends in the UK from 1980-2013 reveals a potential for overdiagnosis.
Oke Jason L JL O'Sullivan Jack W JW Perera Rafael R Nicholson Brian D BD
Scientific reports 20181002 1
The incidence of cancer in the United Kingdom has increased significantly over the last four decades. The aim of this study was to examine trends in UK cancer incidence and mortality by cancer site and assess the potential for overdiagnosis. Using Cancer Research UK incidence and mortality data for the period (1971-2014) we estimated percentage change in incidence and mortality rates and the incidence-mortality ratio (IMR) for cancers in which incidence had increased >50%. Incidence and mortalit ...[more]
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Project description:Heart disease (HD) remains the leading cause of death among Mississippians; however, despite the importance of the condition, trends in HD mortality in Mississippi have not been adequately explored. This study examined trends in HD mortality among adults in Mississippi from 1980 through 2013 and further examined these trends by race and sex. We used data from Mississippi Vital Statistics (1980-2013) to calculate age-adjusted HD mortality rates for Mississippians age 25 or older. Cases were identified using underlying cause of death codes from the International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision (ICD-9: 390-398, 402, 404-429) and Tenth Revision (ICD-10), including I00-I09, I11, I13, and I20-I51. Joinpoint software was used to calculate the average annual percent change in HD mortality rates for the overall population and by race and sex. Overall, the age-adjusted HD mortality rate among Mississippi adults decreased by 36.5% between 1980 and 2013, with an average annual percent change of -1.60% (95% CI -2.00 to -1.30). This trend varied across subgroups: HD mortality rates experienced an average annual change of -1.34% (95% CI -1.98 to -0.69) for black adults; -1.60% (95% CI -1.74 to -1.46) for white adults; -1.30% (95% CI -1.50 to -1.10) for all women, and -1.90% (95% -2.20 to -1.50) for all men. From 1980 to 2013, there was a continuous decrease in HD mortality among adult Mississippians. However, the magnitude of this reduction differed by race and sex.
| S-EPMC4982678 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ImportanceThyroid cancer incidence has increased substantially in the United States over the last 4 decades, driven largely by increases in papillary thyroid cancer. It is unclear whether the increasing incidence of papillary thyroid cancer has been related to thyroid cancer mortality trends.ObjectiveTo compare trends in thyroid cancer incidence and mortality by tumor characteristics at diagnosis.Design, setting, and participantsTrends in thyroid cancer incidence and incidence-based mortality rates were evaluated using data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results-9 (SEER-9) cancer registry program, and annual percent change in rates was calculated using log-linear regression.ExposureTumor characteristics.Main outcomes and measuresAnnual percent changes in age-adjusted thyroid cancer incidence and incidence-based mortality rates by histologic type and SEER stage for cases diagnosed during 1974-2013.ResultsAmong 77 276 patients (mean [SD] age at diagnosis, 48 [16] years; 58 213 [75%] women) diagnosed with thyroid cancer from 1974-2013, papillary thyroid cancer was the most common histologic type (64 625 cases), and 2371 deaths from thyroid cancer occurred during 1994-2013. Thyroid cancer incidence increased, on average, 3.6% per year (95% CI, 3.2%-3.9%) during 1974-2013 (from 4.56 per 100 000 person-years in 1974-1977 to 14.42 per 100 000 person-years in 2010-2013), primarily related to increases in papillary thyroid cancer (annual percent change, 4.4% [95% CI, 4.0%-4.7%]). Papillary thyroid cancer incidence increased for all SEER stages at diagnosis (4.6% per year for localized, 4.3% per year for regional, 2.4% per year for distant, 1.8% per year for unknown). During 1994-2013, incidence-based mortality increased 1.1% per year (95% CI, 0.6%-1.6%) (from 0.40 per 100 000 person-years in 1994-1997 to 0.46 per 100 000 person-years in 2010-2013) overall and 2.9% per year (95% CI, 1.1%-4.7%) for SEER distant stage papillary thyroid cancer.Conclusions and relevanceAmong patients in the United States diagnosed with thyroid cancer from 1974-2013, the overall incidence of thyroid cancer increased 3% annually, with increases in the incidence rate and thyroid cancer mortality rate for advanced-stage papillary thyroid cancer. These findings are consistent with a true increase in the occurrence of thyroid cancer in the United States.
| S-EPMC8216772 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Aims/hypothesisThe relative contribution of increasing incidence and declining mortality to increasing prevalence of type 2 diabetes in Scotland is unclear. Trends in incidence and mortality rates are described for type 2 diabetes in Scotland between 2004 and 2013 by age, sex and socioeconomic deprivation.MethodsData for incident and prevalent cases of type 2 diabetes were obtained from the Scottish national diabetes register with number of deaths identified from linkage to mortality records. Population size and death data for Scotland by age, sex and socioeconomic deprivation were obtained from National Records of Scotland. Age- and sex-specific incidence and mortality rates stratified by year and deciles of socioeconomic status were calculated using Poisson models.ResultsThere were 180,290 incident cases of type 2 diabetes in Scotland between 2004 and 2013. Overall, incidence of type 2 diabetes remained stable over time and was 4.88 (95% CI 4.84, 4.90) and 3.33 (3.28, 3.32) per 1000 in men and women, respectively. However, incidence increased among young men, remained stable in young women, and declined in older men and women. Incidence rates declined in all socioeconomic groups but increased after 2008 in the most deprived groups. Standardised mortality ratios associated with diabetes, adjusted for age and socioeconomic group, were 1.38 (1.36, 1.41) in men and 1.49 (1.45, 1.52) in women, and remained constant over time.Conclusions/interpretationIncidence of type 2 diabetes has stabilised in recent years suggesting that increasing prevalence may be primarily attributed to declining mortality. Prevention of type 2 diabetes remains important, particularly among socioeconomically deprived populations.
| S-EPMC5016553 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ImportanceGastric cancer is one of the most common cancers, with a high mortality-to-incidence ratio. It is uncertain whether developed nations may encounter an increasing burden of gastric cancer in young adults, as occurs for other cancers.ObjectivesTo evaluate the incidence and mortality of gastric cancer and compare the global incidence trends between younger (<40 years) and older (≥40 years) populations.Design, setting, and participantsThis population-based cohort study analyzed data from global and national cancer registries, including data from 1980 to 2018, with at least 15 calendar years of incidence and mortality data. Data on age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of gastric cancer among 48 countries were retrieved from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program, the National Cancer Institute, the Nordic Cancer Registries, and the World Health Organization Mortality Database. The 10-year incidence trend of gastric cancer was assessed by age and sex. The 2018 GLOBOCAN database was used for reporting the global incidence and mortality of gastric cancer, the most recent data available at the time of analysis. Analyses were performed between January 10, 2020, and March 20, 2020.Main outcomes and measuresThe average annual percent change (AAPC) of the incidence and mortality trends as evaluated by joinpoint regression analysis.ResultsA total of 1 033 701 new cases of gastric cancer and 782 685 related deaths were reported in 2018. Overall, the incidence of gastric cancer decreased in 29 countries, and mortality decreased in 41 countries. The age-standardized incidence of gastric cancer decreased from a range of 2.6 to 59.1 in 1980 to a range of 2.5 to 56.8 in 2018 per 100 000 persons. The overall age-standardized mortality rate changed from a range of 1.3 to 25.8 in 1980 to a range of 1.5 to 18.5 in 2018 per 100 000 persons, but increasing mortality was observed in Thailand (female: AAPC, 5.30; 95% CI, 4.38-6.23; P < .001; male: AAPC, 3.92; 95% CI, 2.14-5.74; P < .001). The incidence of gastric cancer decreased in most regions among individuals 40 years or older and increased in populations younger than 40 years in several countries, including Sweden (male: AAPC, 13.92; 95% CI, 7.16-21.11; P = .001), Ecuador (female: AAPC, 6.05; 95% CI, 1.40-10.92; P = .02), and the UK (male: AAPC, 4.27; 95% CI, 0.15-8.55; P = .04; female: AAPC, 3.60; 95% CI, 3.59-3.61; P < .001).Conclusions and relevanceIn this population-based cohort study, an increasing incidence of gastric cancer was observed in younger individuals in some countries, highlighting the need for more preventive strategies in younger populations. Future research should explore the reasons for these epidemiologic trends.
| S-EPMC8314143 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BACKGROUND:Screening for prostate cancer is frequent in high-income countries, including Switzerland. Notably due to overdiagnosis and overtreatment, various organisations have recently recommended against routine screening, potentially having an impact on incidence, mortality, and surgery rates. Our aim was therefore to examine whether secular trends in the incidence and mortality of prostate cancer, and in prostatectomy rates, have recently changed in Switzerland. METHODS:We conducted a population-based trend study in Switzerland from 1998 to 2012. Cases of invasive prostate cancer, deaths from prostate cancer, and prostatectomies were analysed. We calculated changes in age-standardised prostate cancer incidence rates, stratified by tumor stage (early, advanced), prostate cancer-specific mortality, and prostatectomy rates. RESULTS:The age-standardised incidence rate of prostate cancer increased greatly in men aged 50-69 years (absolute mean annual change +4.6/100,000, 95% CI: +2.9 to +6.2) between 1998 and 2002, and stabilised afterwards. In men aged ≥ 70 years, the incidence decreased slightly between 1998 and 2002, and more substantially since 2003. The incidence of early tumor stages increased between 1998 and 2002 only in men aged 50-69 years, and then stabilised, while the incidence of advanced stages remained stable across both age strata. The rate of prostatectomy increased markedly until 2002, more so in the 50 to 69 age range than among men aged ≥ 70 years; it leveled off after 2002 in both age strata. Trends in surgery were driven by radical prostatectomy. Since 1998, the annual age-standardised mortality rate of prostate cancer slightly declined in men aged 50-69 years (absolute mean annual change -0.1/100,000, 95% CI: -0.2 to -0.1) and ≥ 70 years (absolute mean annual change -0.5/100,000, 95% CI: -0.7 to -0.3). CONCLUSIONS:The increases in the incidence of early stage prostate cancer and prostatectomy observed in Switzerland among men younger than 70 years have concomitantly leveled off around 2002/2003. Given the decreasing mortality, these trends may reflect recent changes in screening and clinical workup practices, with a possible attenuation of overdiagnosis and overtreatment.
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Project description:In Poland testicular tumours are the most frequent cancer among men aged 20-44 years. Testicular tumour incidence since the 1980s and 1990s has been diversified geographically, with an increased risk of mortality in Wielkopolska Province, which was highlighted at the turn of the 1980s and 1990s. The aim of the study was the comparative analysis of the tendencies in incidence and death rates due to malignant testicular tumours observed among men in Poland and in Wielkopolska Province.Data from the National Cancer Registry were used for calculations. The incidence/mortality rates among men due to malignant testicular cancer as well as the tendencies in incidence/death ratio observed in Poland and Wielkopolska were established based on regression equation. The analysis was deepened by adopting the multiple linear regression model. A p-value < 0.05 was arbitrarily adopted as the criterion of statistical significance, and for multiple comparisons it was modified according to the Bonferroni adjustment to a value of p < 0.0028. Calculations were performed with the use of PQStat v1.4.8 package.The incidence of malignant testicular neoplasms observed among men in Poland and in Wielkopolska Province indicated a significant rising tendency. The multiple linear regression model confirmed that the year variable is a strong incidence forecast factor only within the territory of Poland. A corresponding analysis of mortality rates among men in Poland and in Wielkopolska Province did not show any statistically significant correlations.Late diagnosis of Polish patients calls for undertaking appropriate educational activities that would facilitate earlier reporting of the patients, thus increasing their chances for recovery. Introducing preventive examinations in the regions of increased risk of testicular tumour may allow earlier diagnosis.
| S-EPMC4829749 | biostudies-other
Project description:Population-based cancer registration data are collected by the National Central Cancer Registry in China every year. Cancer incident cases and cancer deaths in 2013 were analyzed.Through the procedure of quality control, reported data from 255 registries were accepted to establish the national database for cancer estimates. Incidences and mortalities were calculated with stratification by area (urban/rural), sex (male/female), age group (0, 1-4, 5-9, 10-14 … 80-84, and 85-year-old and above), and cancer site. The structure of Segi's population was used for the calculation of age-standardized rates (ASR). Top 10 most common cancers and leading causes of cancer deaths were listed.In 2013, 3,682,200 new cancer cases and 2,229,300 cancer deaths were estimated in China based on the pooled data from 255 cancer registries, covering 16.65% of the national population. The incidence was 270.59/100,000, with an ASR of 186.15/100,000; the mortality was 166.83/100,000, with an ASR of 108.94/100,000. The top 10 most common cancer sites were the lung, stomach, liver, colorectum, female breast, esophagus, thyroid, cervix, brain, and pancreas. The ten leading causes of cancer deaths were lung cancer, liver cancer, gastric cancer, esophageal cancer, colorectal cancer, pancreatic cancer, female breast cancer, brain tumor, leukemia, and lymphoma.Cancer leaves serious disease burden in China with high incidence and mortality. Lung cancer was the most common cancer and the leading cause of cancer death in China. Efficient control strategy is needed, especially for major cancers.
| S-EPMC5561600 | biostudies-other
Project description:IntroductionCancer is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in the United States and results in a high economic burden.ObjectiveTo estimate age-standardized mortality rates by US county from 29 cancers.Design and settingDeidentified death records from the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) and population counts from the Census Bureau, the NCHS, and the Human Mortality Database from 1980 to 2014 were used. Validated small area estimation models were used to estimate county-level mortality rates from 29 cancers: lip and oral cavity; nasopharynx; other pharynx; esophageal; stomach; colon and rectum; liver; gallbladder and biliary; pancreatic; larynx; tracheal, bronchus, and lung; malignant skin melanoma; nonmelanoma skin cancer; breast; cervical; uterine; ovarian; prostate; testicular; kidney; bladder; brain and nervous system; thyroid; mesothelioma; Hodgkin lymphoma; non-Hodgkin lymphoma; multiple myeloma; leukemia; and all other cancers combined.ExposureCounty of residence.Main outcomes and measuresAge-standardized cancer mortality rates by county, year, sex, and cancer type.ResultsA total of 19 511 910 cancer deaths were recorded in the United States between 1980 and 2014, including 5 656 423 due to tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer; 2 484 476 due to colon and rectum cancer; 1 573 593 due to breast cancer; 1 077 030 due to prostate cancer; 1 157 878 due to pancreatic cancer; 209 314 due to uterine cancer; 421 628 due to kidney cancer; 487 518 due to liver cancer; 13 927 due to testicular cancer; and 829 396 due to non-Hodgkin lymphoma. Cancer mortality decreased by 20.1% (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 18.2%-21.4%) between 1980 and 2014, from 240.2 (95% UI, 235.8-244.1) to 192.0 (95% UI, 188.6-197.7) deaths per 100 000 population. There were large differences in the mortality rate among counties throughout the period: in 1980, cancer mortality ranged from 130.6 (95% UI, 114.7-146.0) per 100 000 population in Summit County, Colorado, to 386.9 (95% UI, 330.5-450.7) in North Slope Borough, Alaska, and in 2014 from 70.7 (95% UI, 63.2-79.0) in Summit County, Colorado, to 503.1 (95% UI, 464.9-545.4) in Union County, Florida. For many cancers, there were distinct clusters of counties with especially high mortality. The location of these clusters varied by type of cancer and were spread in different regions of the United States. Clusters of breast cancer were present in the southern belt and along the Mississippi River, while liver cancer was high along the Texas-Mexico border, and clusters of kidney cancer were observed in North and South Dakota and counties in West Virginia, Ohio, Indiana, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Texas, Alaska, and Illinois.Conclusions and relevanceCancer mortality declined overall in the United States between 1980 and 2014. Over this same period, there were important changes in trends, patterns, and differences in cancer mortality among US counties. These patterns may inform further research into improving prevention and treatment.
| S-EPMC5617139 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Objective Trends in recorded diagnoses of chronic fatigue syndrome (CFS, also known as 'myalgic encephalomyelitis' (ME)) and fibromyalgia (FM) in the UK were last reported more than ten years ago, for the period 1990-2001. Our aim was to analyse trends in incident diagnoses of CFS/ME and FM for the period 2001-2013, and to investigate whether incidence might vary by index of multiple deprivation (IMD) score. Design Electronic health records cohort study. Setting NHS primary care practices in the UK. Participants Participants: Patients registered with general practices linked to the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) primary care database from January 2001 to December 2013. Main outcome measure Incidence of CFS/ME, FM, post-viral fatigue syndrome (PVFS), and asthenia/debility. Results The overall annual incidence of recorded cases of CFS/ME was 14.8 (95% CI 14.5, 15.1) per 100,000 people. Overall annual incidence per 100,000 people for FM was 33.3 (32.8-33.8), for PVFS 12.2 (11.9, 12.5), and for asthenia/debility 7.0 (6.8, 7.2). Annual incidence rates for CFS/ME diagnoses decreased from 17.5 (16.1, 18.9) in 2001 to 12.6 (11.5, 13.8) in 2013 (annual percent change -2.8% (-3.6%, -2.0%)). Annual incidence rates for FM diagnoses decreased from 32.3 (30.4, 34.3) to 27.1 (25.5, 28.6) in 2007, then increased to 38.2 (36.3, 40.1) per 100,000 people in 2013. Overall annual incidence of recorded fatigue symptoms was 2246 (2242, 2250) per 100,000 people. Compared with the least deprived IMD quintile, incidence of CFS/ME in the most deprived quintile was 39% lower (incidence rate ratio (IRR) 0.61 (0.50, 0.75)), whereas rates of FM were 40% higher (IRR 1.40 (0.95, 2.06)). Conclusion These analyses suggest a gradual decline in recorded diagnoses of CFS/ME since 2001, and an increase in diagnoses of fibromyalgia, with opposing socioeconomic patterns of lower rates of CFS/ME diagnoses in the poorest areas compared with higher rates of FM diagnoses.
| S-EPMC5499564 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectiveLittle is known about whether levels of physical fitness, which is related to adiposity and physical activity (PA), have changed in children, particularly the progressive increase in childhood obesity levels. We aimed to examine the time trends in resting pulse rate (a marker of physical fitness) among UK children, in order to better understand the trends in levels of physical fitness in recent decades.Design and settingWe used a cross-sectional study design and included data on over 22 000 children aged 9-11 years (mean 10.3 years) from five population-based studies conducted in the UK between 1980 and 2008.Main outcome measuresResting pulse rate (bpm).ResultsObserved mean resting pulse rate was higher for girls than boys (82.2 bpm vs 78.7 bpm). During the study period mean pulse rate increased by 0.07 bpm/year (95% CI 0.04 to 0.09) among boys and to a lesser extent among girls, by 0.04 bpm/year (0.01 to 0.06) (p<0.05 for gender interaction). For boys, there was an indication that the trend was steeper after the mid-1990 s, compared to that prior to 1994 (annual increase 0.14 vs 0.04 bpm). The trends for Body Mass Index (BMI) accounted for only 13.8% (11.3% to 16.3%) of increase in pulse rate for boys and 17.2% (9.4% to 24.9%) for girls.ConclusionsIncreases in mean resting pulse rate have occurred during the period 1980-2008 in girls and especially in boys. The increase was not explained by increased BMI. The observed trends in children, though modest, could have important public health implications for future cardiovascular risk.
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