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Forensic analysis of Turkish elections in 2017-2018.

ABSTRACT: With a majority of 'Yes' votes in the Constitutional Referendum of 2017, Turkey continued its drift towards an autocracy. By the will of the Turkish people, this referendum transferred practically all executive power to president Erdoğan. However, the referendum was confronted with a substantial number of allegations of electoral misconducts and irregularities, ranging from state coercion of 'No' supporters to the controversial validity of unstamped ballots. Here we report the results of an election forensic analysis of recent Turkish elections to clarify to what extent it is plausible that these voting irregularities were present and able to influence the outcome of the referendum. We apply statistical forensics tests to identify the specific nature of the alleged electoral malpractices. In particular, we test whether the data contains fingerprints for ballot stuffing (submission of multiple ballots per person during the vote) and voter rigging (coercion and intimidation of voters). Additionally, we perform tests to identify numerical anomalies in the election results. For the 2017 Constitutional Referendum we find systematic and highly significant statistical support for the presence of both ballot stuffing and voter rigging. In 11% of stations we find signs for ballot stuffing with a standard deviation (uncertainty of ballot stuffing probability) of 2.7% (4 sigma event). Removing such ballot-stuffing-characteristic anomalies from the data would tip the overall balance from 'No' to a majority of 'Yes' votes. The 2017 election was followed by early elections in 2018 to directly vote for a new president who would now be head of state and government. We find statistical irregularities in the 2018 presidential and parliamentary elections similar in size and direction to those in 2017. These findings validate that our results unveil systematic and potentially even fraudulent biases that require further attention in order to combat electoral malpractices.

SUBMITTER: Klimek P

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6173410 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundAs a consequence of war and the collapse of the health system in Yemen, which prevented many people from accessing health facilities to obtain primary health care, vaccination coverage was affected, leading to a deadly diphtheria epidemic at the end of 2017.ObjectiveThis study aimed to describe the epidemiology of diphtheria in Yemen and determine its incidence and case fatality rate.MethodsData were obtained from the diphtheria surveillance program 2017-2018, using case definitions of the World Health Organization. A probable case was defined as a case involving a person having laryngitis, pharyngitis, or tonsillitis and an adherent membrane of the tonsils, pharynx, and/or nose. A confirmed case was defined as a probable case that was laboratory confirmed or linked epidemiologically to a laboratory-confirmed case. Data from the Central Statistical Organization was used to calculate the incidence per 100,000 population. A P value <.05 was considered significant.ResultsA total of 2243 cases were reported during the period between July 2017 and August 2018. About 49% (1090/2243, 48.6%) of the cases were males. About 44% (978/2243, 43.6%) of the cases involved children aged 5 to 15 years. Respiratory tract infection was the predominant symptom (2044/2243, 91.1%), followed by pseudomembrane (1822/2243, 81.2%). Based on the vaccination status, the percentages of partially vaccinated, vaccinated, unvaccinated, and unknown status patients were 6.6% (148/2243), 30.8% (690/2243), 48.6% (10902243), and 14.0% (315/2243), respectively. The overall incidence of diphtheria was 8 per 100,000 population. The highest incidence was among the age group <15 years (11 per 100,000 population), and the lowest incidence was among the age group ≥15 years (5 per 100,000 population). The overall case fatality rate among all age groups was 5%, and it was higher (10%) in the age group <5 years. Five governorates that were difficult to access (Raymah, Abyan, Sa'ada, Lahj, and Al Jawf) had a very high case fatality rate (22%).ConclusionsDiphtheria affected a large number of people in Yemen in 2017-2018. The majority of patients were partially or not vaccinated. Children aged ≤15 years were more affected, with higher fatality among children aged <5 years. Five governorates that were difficult to access had a case fatality rate twice that of the World Health Organization estimate (5%-10%). To control the diphtheria epidemic in Yemen, it is recommended to increase routine vaccination coverage and booster immunizations, increase public health awareness toward diphtheria, and strengthen the surveillance system for early detection and immediate response.

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Forensic analysis of Turkish elections in 2017-2018.

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