Dataset Information

The impact and cost-effectiveness of controlling cholera through the use of oral cholera vaccines in urban Bangladesh: A disease modeling and economic analysis.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Cholera remains an important public health problem in major cities in Bangladesh, especially in slum areas. In response to growing interest among local policymakers to control this disease, this study estimated the impact and cost-effectiveness of preventive cholera vaccination over a ten-year period in a high-risk slum population in Dhaka to inform decisions about the use of oral cholera vaccines as a key tool in reducing cholera risk in such populations. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS:Assuming use of a two-dose killed whole-cell oral cholera vaccine to be produced locally, the number of cholera cases and deaths averted was estimated for three target group options (1-4 year olds, 1-14 year olds, and all persons 1+), using cholera incidence data from Dhaka, estimates of vaccination coverage rates from the literature, and a dynamic model of cholera transmission based on data from Matlab, which incorporates herd effects. Local estimates of vaccination costs minus savings in treatment costs, were used to obtain incremental cost-effectiveness ratios for one- and ten-dose vial sizes. Vaccinating 1-14 year olds every three years, combined with annual routine vaccination of children, would be the most cost-effective strategy, reducing incidence in this population by 45% (assuming 10% annual migration), and costing was $823 (2015 USD) for single dose vials and $591 (2015 USD) for ten-dose vials per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted. Vaccinating all ages one year and above would reduce incidence by >90%, but would be 50% less cost-effective ($894-1,234/DALY averted). Limiting vaccination to 1-4 year olds would be the least cost-effective strategy (preventing only 7% of cases and costing $1,276-$1,731/DALY averted), due to the limited herd effects of vaccinating this small population and the lower vaccine efficacy in this age group. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE:Providing cholera vaccine to slum populations in Dhaka through periodic vaccination campaigns would significantly reduce cholera incidence and inequities, and be especially cost-effective if all 1-14 year olds are targeted.

SUBMITTER: Khan AI

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6177119 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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The impact and cost-effectiveness of controlling cholera through the use of oral cholera vaccines in urban Bangladesh: A disease modeling and economic analysis.

Khan Ashraful Islam AI Levin Ann A Chao Dennis L DL DeRoeck Denise D Dimitrov Dobromir T DT Khan Jahangir A M JAM Islam Muhammad Shariful MS Ali Mohammad M Islam Md Taufiqul MT Sarker Abdur Razzaque AR Clemens John D JD Qadri Firdausi F

PLoS neglected tropical diseases 20181009 10

<h4>Background</h4>Cholera remains an important public health problem in major cities in Bangladesh, especially in slum areas. In response to growing interest among local policymakers to control this disease, this study estimated the impact and cost-effectiveness of preventive cholera vaccination over a ten-year period in a high-risk slum population in Dhaka to inform decisions about the use of oral cholera vaccines as a key tool in reducing cholera risk in such populations.<h4>Methodology/princ ...[more]

PMID: 30300420

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Project description:The current global initiative to end Cholera by 2030 emphasizes the use of oral cholera vaccine (OCV) combined with feasible household Water-Sanitation-Hygiene (WASH) interventions. However, little is known about how improved WASH practices and behaviors and OCV interact to reduce the risk of cholera. We reanalyzed two arms of a cluster-randomized trial in urban Bangladesh, to evaluate the effectiveness of OCV given as a 2-dose regimen. One arm (30 clusters, n = 94,675) was randomized to vaccination of persons aged one year and older with OCV, and the other arm (30 clusters, n = 80,056) to no intervention. We evaluated the prevention of cholera by household WASH, classified at baseline using a previously validated rule, and OCV over 2 years of follow-up. When analyzed by assignment to OCV clusters rather than receipt of OCV, in comparison to persons living in "Not Better WASH" households in the control clusters, reduction of severe cholera (the primary outcome) was similar for persons in "Not Better WASH" households in vaccine clusters (46%, 95% CI:24,62), for persons in "Better WASH" households in the control clusters (48%, 95% CI:25,64), and for persons in "Better WASH" households in the vaccine clusters (48%, 95% CI:16,67). In contrast, when analyzed by actual receipt of a complete OCV regimen, , in comparison to persons in "Not Better WASH" households in the control clusters, protection against severe cholera increased steadily from 39% (95% CI:13,58) in residents of "Better WASH" households in the control clusters to 57% (95% CI:35,72) in vaccinated persons in "Not Better WASH" households to 63% (95% CI:21,83) in vaccinated persons in "Better WASH" households. This analysis suggests that improved household WASH and OCV received may interact to provide greater protection against cholera. However, the divergence between findings related to intent to vaccinate versus those pertaining to actual receipt of OCV underscores the need for further research on this topic.

Project description:BackgroundIn Bangladesh, pharmacy-purchased oral rehydration solution (ORS) is often used to treat diarrhea, including cholera. Over-the-counter sales have been used for epidemiologic surveillance in the past, but rarely, if ever, in low-income countries. With few early indicators for cholera outbreaks in endemic areas, diarrhea-related product sales may serve as a useful surveillance tool.Methodology/principal findingsWe tracked daily ORS sales at 50 pharmacies and drug-sellers in an urban Bangladesh community of 129,000 for 6-months while simultaneously conducting surveillance for diarrhea hospitalizations among residents. We developed a mobile phone based system to track the sales of ORS and deployed it in parallel with a paper-based system. Our objectives were to determine if the mobile phone system was practical and acceptable to pharmacists and drug sellers, whether data were reported accurately compared to a paper-based system, and whether ORS sales were associated with future incidence of cholera hospitalizations within the community. We recorded 47,215 customers purchasing ORS, and 315 hospitalized diarrhea cases, 22% of which had culture-confirmed cholera. ORS sales and diarrhea incidence were independently associated with the mean daily temperature; therefore both unadjusted and adjusted models were explored. Through unadjusted cross-correlation statistics and generalized linear models, we found increases in ORS sales were significantly associated with increases in hospitalized diarrhea cases up to 9-days later and hospitalized cholera cases up to one day later. After adjusting for mean daily temperature, ORS was significantly associated with hospitalized diarrhea two days later and hospitalized cholera one day later.Conclusions/significancePharmacy sales data may serve as a feasible and useful surveillance tool. Given the relatively short lagged correlation between ORS sales and diarrhea, rapid and accurate sales data are key. More work is needed in creating actionable algorithms that make use of this data and in understanding the generalizability of our findings to other settings.

Dataset Information

The impact and cost-effectiveness of controlling cholera through the use of oral cholera vaccines in urban Bangladesh: A disease modeling and economic analysis.

Publications

The impact and cost-effectiveness of controlling cholera through the use of oral cholera vaccines in urban Bangladesh: A disease modeling and economic analysis.

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