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Potential impact of implementing and scaling up harm reduction and antiretroviral therapy on HIV prevalence and mortality and overdose deaths among people who inject drugs in two Russian cities: a modelling study.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Most new HIV infections among people who inject drugs (PWID) in eastern Europe and central Asia occur in Russia, where PWID have a high risk of overdose. In Russia, use of opioid agonist therapy (OAT) is prohibited, and coverage of needle and syringe programmes (NSPs) and antiretroviral therapy (ART) is poor. We aimed to assess the effects that scaling up harm reduction (ie, use of OAT and coverage of NSPs) and use of ART might have on HIV incidence and the frequency of fatal overdoses among PWID in two cities in the Ural Federal District and Siberian Federal District, where the prevalence of HIV is high or increasing in PWID. METHODS:In this modelling study, we developed a dynamic deterministic model that simulated transmission of HIV through injection drug use and sex among PWID. We calibrated this model to HIV prevalence data among PWID in two Russian cities: Omsk (which has high but increasing prevalence of HIV among PWID) and Ekaterinburg (which has very high but stable prevalence of HIV). The source data were from research studies supported by the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis, and Malaria and US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and surveillance studies from WHO and regional AIDS centres. We modelled the effects of no intervention scale-up (no use of harm reduction measures and 30% of HIV-positive PWID receiving ART) versus combinations of scaling up of OAT, receipt of high coverage of NSPs, and use of ART on the incidence of HIV infections, mortality from HIV, and the frequency of fatal overdoses from 2018 to 2028. FINDINGS:Without intervention, HIV prevalence among PWID in Omsk could increase from 30% in 2018 to 36% (2·5-97·5 percentile interval 22-52) in 2028 and remain high in Ekaterinburg, estimated at 60% (57-67) in 2028. Scaling up OAT to 50% coverage for a duration of 2 years could prevent 35% of HIV infections and 19% of deaths associated with HIV in Omsk and 20% (11-29) of HIV infections and 10% (4-14) of deaths associated with HIV in Ekaterinburg. Further, this scaling up could prevent 33% of overdose deaths over the next 10 years. Scaling up of NSPs and OAT to 50% coverage and tripling recruitment to ART (reaching about 65% of HIV-positive PWID) could prevent 58% (46-69) of HIV infections and 45% (36-54) of deaths associated with HIV in Omsk and 38% (26-50) of HIV infections and 32% (23-41) of deaths associated with HIV in Ekaterinburg by 2028. INTERPRETATION:Legalisation of OAT and increased use of ART and NSPs for PWID are urgently needed to prevent HIV and fatal overdose among PWID in Russia. FUNDING:National Institutes of Health and Elton John AIDS Foundation.

SUBMITTER: Cepeda JA

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6188805 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Potential impact of implementing and scaling up harm reduction and antiretroviral therapy on HIV prevalence and mortality and overdose deaths among people who inject drugs in two Russian cities: a modelling study.

Cepeda Javier A JA Eritsyan Ksenia K Vickerman Peter P Lyubimova Alexandra A Shegay Marina M Odinokova Veronika V Beletsky Leo L Borquez Annick A Hickman Matthew M Beyrer Chris C Martin Natasha K NK

The lancet. HIV 20180720 10

<h4>Background</h4>Most new HIV infections among people who inject drugs (PWID) in eastern Europe and central Asia occur in Russia, where PWID have a high risk of overdose. In Russia, use of opioid agonist therapy (OAT) is prohibited, and coverage of needle and syringe programmes (NSPs) and antiretroviral therapy (ART) is poor. We aimed to assess the effects that scaling up harm reduction (ie, use of OAT and coverage of NSPs) and use of ART might have on HIV incidence and the frequency of fatal ...[more]

PMID: 30033374

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Project description:INTRODUCTION:The HIV epidemic in Tijuana, Mexico is concentrated in key populations, including people who inject drugs (PWID). However, HIV interventions among PWID are minimal, and federal funding was provided for compulsory abstinence programmes associated with HIV and overdose. Alternatively, opioid agonist therapy reduces overdose, reincarceration, HIV, while improving antiretroviral therapy (ART) outcomes. We assessed potential impact and synergies of scaled-up integrated ART and opioid agonist therapy, compared to scale-up of each separately, and potential harms of compulsory abstinence programmes on HIV and fatal overdose among PWID in Tijuana. METHODS:We developed a dynamic model of HIV transmission and overdose among PWID in Tijuana. We simulated scale-up of opioid agonist therapy from zero to 40% coverage among PWID. We evaluated synergistic benefits of an integrated harm reduction and ART scale-up strategy (40% opioid agonist therapy coverage and 10-fold ART recruitment), compared to scale-up of each intervention alone or no scale-up of low coverage ART and no harm reduction). We additionally simulated compulsory abstinence programmes (associated with 14% higher risk of receptive syringe sharing and 76% higher odds of overdose) among PWID. RESULTS:Without intervention, HIV incidence among PWID could increase from 0.72 per 100 person-years (PY) in 2020 to 0.92 per 100 PY in 2030. Over ten years, opioid agonist therapy scale-up could avert 31% (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 18%, 46%) and 22% (95% UI: 10%, 28%) new HIV infections and fatal overdoses, respectively, with the majority of HIV impact from the direct effect on HIV transmission due to low ART coverage. Integrating opioid agonist therapy and ART scale-up provided synergistic benefits, with opioid agonist therapy effects on ART recruitment/retention averting 9% more new infections compared to ART scale-up alone. The intervention strategy could avert 48% (95% UI: 26%, 68%) of new HIV infections and one-fifth of fatal overdoses over ten years. Conversely, compulsory abstinence programmes could increase HIV and overdoses. CONCLUSIONS:Integrating ART with opioid agonist therapy could provide synergistic benefits and prevent HIV and overdoses among PWID in Tijuana, whereas compulsory abstinence programmes could cause harm. Policymakers should consider the benefits of integrating harm reduction and HIV services for PWID.

Dataset Information

Potential impact of implementing and scaling up harm reduction and antiretroviral therapy on HIV prevalence and mortality and overdose deaths among people who inject drugs in two Russian cities: a modelling study.

Publications

Potential impact of implementing and scaling up harm reduction and antiretroviral therapy on HIV prevalence and mortality and overdose deaths among people who inject drugs in two Russian cities: a modelling study.

Similar Datasets

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