Dataset Information

Projection of Breast Cancer Burden due to Reproductive/Lifestyle Changes in Korean Women (2013-2030) Using an Age-Period-Cohort Model.

ABSTRACT: PURPOSE:The aim of this study was to estimate the burden of breast cancer that can be attributed to rapid lifestyle changes in South Korea in 2013-2030. Materials and Methods:An age-period-cohort model was used to estimate the incidence and mortality. The Global Burden of Disease Study Group methodwas used to calculate the years of life lost and years lived with disability in breast cancer patients using a nationwide cancer registry. The population attributable riskswere calculated using meta-analyzed relative risk ratios and by assessing the prevalence of risk factors. RESULTS:Women's reproductive/lifestyle changes, including advanced maternal age at first childbirth (from 37 to 85 disability-adjusted life years [DALYs] per 100,000 person-years), total period of breastfeeding (from 22 to 46 DALYs per 100,000 person-years), obesity (from 37 to 61 DALYs per 100,000 person-years), alcohol consumption (from 19 to 39 DALYs per 100,000 person-years), oral contraceptive use (from 18 to 27 DALYs per 100,000 person-years), and hormone replacement therapy use (from 2 to 3 DALYs per 100,000 person-years) were identified as factors likely to increase the burden of breast cancer from 2013 to 2030. Approximately, 34.2% to 44.3% of the burden of breast cancer could be avoidable in 2030 with reduction in reproductive/lifestyle risk factors. CONCLUSION:The rapid changes of age structure and lifestyle in South Korea during the last decade are expected to strongly increase the breast cancer burden over time unless the risk factors can be effectively modified.

SUBMITTER: Lee JE

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6192937 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Projection of Breast Cancer Burden due to Reproductive/Lifestyle Changes in Korean Women (2013-2030) Using an Age-Period-Cohort Model.

Lee Joo Eun JE Lee Sang Ah SA Kim Tae Hyun TH Park Sohee S Choy Yoon Soo YS Ju Yeong Jun YJ Park Eun-Cheol EC

Cancer research and treatment 20180122 4

<h4>Purpose</h4>The aim of this study was to estimate the burden of breast cancer that can be attributed to rapid lifestyle changes in South Korea in 2013-2030.<h4>Materials and methods</h4>An age-period-cohort model was used to estimate the incidence and mortality. The Global Burden of Disease Study Group methodwas used to calculate the years of life lost and years lived with disability in breast cancer patients using a nationwide cancer registry. The population attributable riskswere calculate ...[more]

PMID: 29361820

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Project description:BACKGROUND: Projection analyses can provide estimates of the future health burden of increasing BMI and represent a relevant and useful tool for public health planning. Our study presents long-term (2013-2030) projections of the prevalence and numbers of individuals by BMI category for adult men and women in Quebec. Three applications of projections to estimate outcomes more directly pertinent to public health planning, as well as an in-depth discussion of limits, are provided with the aim of encouraging greater use of projection analyses by public health officers. METHODS: The weighted compositional regression method is applied to prevalence time series derived from sixteen cross-sectional survey cycles, for scenarios of linear change and deceleration. Estimation of the component of projected change potentially amenable to intervention, future health targets and the projected impact on type 2 diabetes, were done. RESULTS: Obesity prevalence in Quebec is projected to rise steadily from 2013 to 2030 in both men (from 18.0-19.4% to 22.2-30.4%) and women (from 15.5-16.3% to 18.2-22.4%). Corresponding projected numbers of obese individuals are (579,000-625,000 to 790,000-1,084,000) in men and (514,000-543,000 to 661,000-816,000) in women. These projected increases are found to be primarily an 'epidemiologic' rather than 'demographic' phenomenon and thus potentially amenable to public health intervention. Assessment of obesity targets for 2020 illustrates the necessity of using projected rather than current prevalence; for example a targeted 2% drop in obesity prevalence relative to 2013 translates into a 3.6-5.4% drop relative to 2020 projected levels. Type 2 diabetes is projected to increase from 6.9% to 9.2-10.1% in men and from 5.7% to 7.1-7.5% in women, from 2011-2012 to 2030. A substantial proportion of this change (25-44% for men, and 27-43% for women) is attributable to the changing BMI distribution. CONCLUSIONS: Obesity in Quebec is projected to increase and should therefore continue to be a public health priority. Application of projections to estimate the proportion of change potentially amenable to intervention, feasible health targets, and future chronic disease prevalence are demonstrated. Projection analyses have limitations, but represent a pertinent tool for public health planning.

Project description:Employers play a vital role in promoting and supporting tobacco use cessation among tobacco-using workers. Cigarette smoking during pregnancy is a preventable cause of complications in pregnancy and adverse infant health outcomes.To estimate cigarette smoking prevalence and attempts to quit among working women of reproductive age in different industries and occupations using a nationally representative survey.The 2009-2013 National Health Interview Survey data for women of reproductive age (18-49 years) who were working in the week prior to the interview (n = 30855) were analyzed. Data were adjusted for nonresponse and weighted to produce nationally representative estimates.During 2009-2013, among working women of reproductive age, an estimated 17.3% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 16.7-17.8) and 12.9% (95% CI: 12.4-13.4) were current and former cigarette smokers, respectively. Of women who smoke daily, 44.5% (95% CI: 42.5-46.5) had made a quit attempt for more than 1 day in the year before the interview. Cigarette smoking prevalence was highest among women working in the construction industry (29.2%; 95% CI: 22.8-35.7) and in construction and extraction occupations (34.6%; 95% CI: 23.4-45.9). Among working women who were pregnant at the time of the interview, 6.8% (95% CI: 4.4-9.2) and 20.4% (95% CI: 16.9-24.0) were current and former cigarette smokers, respectively.Cigarette smoking prevalence varies by industry and occupation. Intensifying tobacco control efforts in high prevalence industries and occupations could result in higher cessation rates and improvements in health among women of reproductive age.This study identified discrepancies in cigarette smoking among women of reproductive age across industries and occupations. In the absence of smoke-free local and state laws, employer-established smoke-free policies and workplace cessation programs are important for achieving reduction of tobacco use among women and for protecting other workers' health. Results in this report may assist in developing educational campaigns targeting women in industries and occupations with high prevalence of cigarette smoking and low percentage of ever-smokers who had quit.

Dataset Information

Projection of Breast Cancer Burden due to Reproductive/Lifestyle Changes in Korean Women (2013-2030) Using an Age-Period-Cohort Model.

Publications

Projection of Breast Cancer Burden due to Reproductive/Lifestyle Changes in Korean Women (2013-2030) Using an Age-Period-Cohort Model.

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