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Ten-year risk prediction models of complications and mortality of Chinese patients with diabetes mellitus in primary care in Hong Kong: a study protocol.


ABSTRACT: INTRODUCTION:Diabetes mellitus (DM) is a major disease burden worldwide because it is associated with disabling and lethal complications. DM complication risk assessment and stratification is key to cost-effective management and tertiary prevention for patients with diabetes in primary care. Existing risk prediction functions were found to be inaccurate in Chinese patients with diabetes in primary care. This study aims to develop 10-year risk prediction models for total cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and all-cause mortality among Chinese patients with DM in primary care. METHODS AND ANALYSIS:A 10-year cohort study on a population-based primary care cohort of Chinese patients with diabetes, who were receiving care in the Hospital Authority General Outpatient Clinic on or before 1 January 2008, were identified from the clinical management system database of the Hospital Authority. All patients with complete baseline risk factors will be included and followed from 1 January 2008 to 31 December 2017 for the development and validation of prediction models. The analyses will be carried out separately for men and women. Two-thirds of subjects will be randomly selected as the training sample for model development. Cox regressions will be used to develop 10-year risk prediction models of total CVD and all-cause mortality. The validity of models will be tested on the remaining one-third of subjects by Harrell's C-statistics and calibration plot. Risk prediction models for diabetic complications specific to Chinese patients in primary care will enable accurate risk stratification, prioritisation of resources and more cost-effective interventions for patients with DM in primary care. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION:The study was approved by the Institutional Review Board of the University of Hong Kong-the Hospital Authority Hong Kong West Cluster (reference number: UW 15-258). TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER:NCT03299010; Pre-results.

SUBMITTER: Wan EYF 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6194459 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Ten-year risk prediction models of complications and mortality of Chinese patients with diabetes mellitus in primary care in Hong Kong: a study protocol.

Wan Eric Yuk Fai EYF   Yu Esther Yee Tak EYT   Chin Weng Yee WY   Fung Colman Siu Cheung CSC   Kwok Ruby Lai Ping RLP   Chao David Vai Kiong DVK   Chan King Hong KH   Hui Eric Ming-Tung EM   Tsui Wendy Wing Sze WWS   Tan Kathryn Choon Beng KCB   Fong Daniel Yee Tak DYT   Lam Cindy Lo Kuen CLK  

BMJ open 20181015 10


<h4>Introduction</h4>Diabetes mellitus (DM) is a major disease burden worldwide because it is associated with disabling and lethal complications. DM complication risk assessment and stratification is key to cost-effective management and tertiary prevention for patients with diabetes in primary care. Existing risk prediction functions were found to be inaccurate in Chinese patients with diabetes in primary care. This study aims to develop 10-year risk prediction models for total cardiovascular di  ...[more]

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