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Acute myocardial infarction hospital admissions and deaths in England: a national follow-back and follow-forward record-linkage study.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Little information is available on how primary and comorbid acute myocardial infarction contribute to the mortality burden of acute myocardial infarction, the share of these deaths that occur during or after a hospital admission, and the reasons for hospital admission of those who died from acute myocardial infarction. Our aim was to fill in these gaps in the knowledge about deaths and hospital admissions due to acute myocardial infarction. METHODS:We used individually linked national hospital admission and mortality data for England from 2006 to 2010 to identify all primary and comorbid diagnoses of acute myocardial infarction during hospital stay and their associated fatality rates (during or within 28 days of being in hospital). Data were obtained from the UK Small Area Health Statistics Unit and supplied by the Health and Social Care Information Centre (now NHS Digital) and the Office of National Statistics. We calculated event rates (reported as per 100?000 population for relevant age and sex groups) and case-fatality rate for primary acute myocardial infarction diagnosed during the first physician encounter or during subsequent encounters, and acute myocardial infarction diagnosed only as a comorbidity. We also calculated what proportion of deaths from acute myocardial infarction occurred in people who had been in hospital on or within the 28 days preceding death, and whether acute myocardial infarction was one of the recorded diagnoses in such admissions. FINDINGS:Acute myocardial infarction was diagnosed in the first physician encounter in 307?496 (69%) of 446?744 admissions with a diagnosis of acute myocardial infarction, in the second or later physician encounter in 52?374 (12%) admissions, and recorded only as a comorbidity in 86?874 (19%) admissions. Patients with comorbid diagnoses of acute myocardial infarction had two to three times the case-fatality rate of patients in whom acute myocardial infarction was a primary diagnosis. 135?950 deaths were recorded as being caused by acute myocardial infarction as the underlying cause of death, of which 66?490 (49%) occurred in patients who were in hospital on the day of death or in the 28 days preceding death. AMI was the primary diagnosis in 32?695 (49%) of these 66?490 patients (27?678 [42%] diagnosed in the first physician encounter and 5017 [8%] in a second or subsequent encounter), was a comorbid diagnosis in 12?118 (18%), and was not mentioned at all in the remaining 21?677 (33%). The most common causes of admission in people who did not have an acute myocardial infarction diagnosis but went on to die of acute myocardial infarction as the underlying cause of death were other circulatory conditions (7566 [35%] of 21?677 deaths), symptomatic diagnoses including non-specific chest pain, dyspnoea and syncope (1368 [6%] deaths), and respiratory disorders (2662 [12%] deaths), mainly pneumonia and chronic obstructive airways disease. INTERPRETATION:As many acute myocardial infarction deaths occurring within 28 days of being in hospital follow a non-acute myocardial infarction admission as follow an acute myocardial infarction admission. These people are often diagnosed with other circulatory disorders or symptoms of circulatory disturbance. Further investigation is needed to establish whether there are symptoms and information that can be used to predict the risk of a fatal acute myocardial infarction in such patients, which can contribute to reducing the mortality burden of acute myocardial infarction. FUNDING:Wellcome Trust, Medical Research Council, Public Health England, National Institute for Health Research.

SUBMITTER: Asaria P

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6196770 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Acute myocardial infarction hospital admissions and deaths in England: a national follow-back and follow-forward record-linkage study.

Asaria Perviz P Elliott Paul P Douglass Margaret M Obermeyer Ziad Z Soljak Michael M Majeed Azeem A Ezzati Majid M

The Lancet. Public health 20170301 4

<h4>Background</h4>Little information is available on how primary and comorbid acute myocardial infarction contribute to the mortality burden of acute myocardial infarction, the share of these deaths that occur during or after a hospital admission, and the reasons for hospital admission of those who died from acute myocardial infarction. Our aim was to fill in these gaps in the knowledge about deaths and hospital admissions due to acute myocardial infarction.<h4>Methods</h4>We used individually ...[more]

PMID: 29253451

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Project description:ObjectiveTo examine the association between gestational age at birth and hospital admissions to age 10 years and how admission rates change throughout childhood.DesignPopulation based, record linkage, cohort study in England.SettingNHS hospitals in England, United Kingdom.Participants1 018 136 live, singleton births in NHS hospitals in England between January 2005 and December 2006.Main outcome measuresPrimary outcome was all inpatient hospital admissions from birth to age 10, death, or study end (March 2015); secondary outcome was the main cause of admission, which was defined as the World Health Organization's first international classification of diseases, version 10 (ICD-10) code within each hospital admission record.Results1 315 338 admissions occurred between 1 January 2005 and 31 March 2015, and 831 729 (63%) were emergency admissions. 525 039 (52%) of 1 018 136 children were admitted to hospital at least once during the study period. Hospital admissions during childhood were strongly associated with gestational age at birth (<28, 28-29, 30-31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37, 38, 39, 40, 41, and 42 weeks). In comparison with children born at full term (40 weeks' gestation), those born extremely preterm (<28 weeks) had the highest rate of hospital admission throughout childhood (adjusted rate ratio 4.92, 95% confidence interval 4.58 to 5.30). Even children born at 38 weeks had a higher rate of hospital admission throughout childhood (1.19, 1.16 to 1.22). The association between gestational age and hospital admission decreased with increasing age (interaction P<0.001). Children born earlier than 28 weeks had an adjusted rate ratio of 6.34 (95% confidence interval 5.80 to 6.85) at age less than 1 year, declining to 3.28 (2.82 to 3.82) at ages 7-10, in comparison with those born full term; whereas in children born at 38 weeks, the adjusted rate ratios were 1.29 (1.27 to 1.31) and 1.16 (1.13 to 1.19), during infancy and ages 7-10, respectively. Infection was the main cause of excess hospital admissions at all ages, but particularly during infancy. Respiratory and gastrointestinal conditions also accounted for a large proportion of admissions during the first two years of life.ConclusionsThe association between gestational age and hospital admission rates decreased with age, but an excess risk remained throughout childhood, even among children born at 38 and 39 weeks of gestation. Strategies aimed at the prevention and management of childhood infections should target children born preterm and those born a few weeks early.

Project description:BackgroundMyocardial infarction mortality varies substantially within high-income countries. There is limited guidance on what interventions-including primary and secondary prevention, or improvement of care pathways and quality-can reduce myocardial infarction mortality. Our aim was to understand the contributions of incidence (event rate), pre-hospital deaths, and hospital case fatality to the variations in myocardial infarction mortality within England.MethodsWe used linked data from national databases on hospitalisations and deaths with acute myocardial infarction (ICD-10 codes I21 and I22) as a primary hospital diagnosis or underlying cause of death, from Jan 1, 2015, to Dec 31, 2018. We used geographical identifiers to estimate myocardial infarction event rate (number of events per 100 000 population), death rate (number of deaths per 100 000 population), total case fatality (proportion of events that resulted in death), pre-hospital fatality (proportion of events that resulted in pre-hospital death), and hospital case fatality (proportion of admissions due to myocardial infarction that resulted in death within 28 days of admission) for men and women aged 45 years and older across 326 districts in England. Data were analysed in a Bayesian spatial model that accounted for similarities and differences in spatial patterns of fatal and non-fatal myocardial infarction. Age-standardised rates were calculated by weighting age-specific rates by the corresponding national share of the appropriate denominator for each measure.FindingsFrom 2015 to 2018, national age-standardised death rates were 63 per 100 000 population in women and 126 per 100 000 in men, and event rates were 233 per 100 000 in women and 512 per 100 000 in men. After age-standardisation, 15·0% of events in women and 16·9% in men resulted in death before hospitalisation, and hospital case fatality was 10·8% in women and 10·6% in men. Across districts, the 99th-to-1st percentile ratio of age-standardised myocardial infarction death rates was 2·63 (95% credible interval 2·45-2·83) in women and 2·56 (2·37-2·76) in men, with death rates highest in parts of northern England. The main contributor to this variation was myocardial infarction event rate, with a 99th-to-1st percentile ratio of 2·55 (2·39-2·72) in women and 2·17 (2·08-2·27) in men across districts. Pre-hospital fatality was greater than hospital case fatality in every district. Pre-hospital fatality had a 99th-to-1st percentile ratio of 1·60 (1·50-1·70) in women and 1·75 (1·66-1·86) in men across districts, and made a greater contribution to variation in total case fatality than did hospital case fatality (99th-to-1st percentile ratio 1·39 [1·29-1·49] and 1·49 [1·39-1·60]). The contribution of case fatality to variation in deaths across districts was largest in women aged 55-64 and 65-74 years and in men aged 55-64, 65-74, and 75-84 years. Pre-hospital fatality was slightly higher in men than in women in most districts and age groups, whereas hospital case fatality was higher in women in virtually all districts at ages up to and including 65-74 years.InterpretationMost of the variation in myocardial infarction mortality in England is due to variation in myocardial infarction event rate, with a smaller role for case fatality. Most variation in case fatality occurs before rather than after hospital admission. Reducing subnational variations in myocardial infarction mortality requires interventions that reduce event rate and pre-hospital deaths.FundingWellcome Trust, British Heart Foundation, Medical Research Council (UK Research and Innovation), and National Institute for Health Research (UK).

Project description:ObjectivesElectronic health records (EHR) might be a useful resource to study the risk factors and clinical care of people with dementia. We sought to determine the diagnostic validity of dementia captured in linked EHR.Methods and findingsA cohort of adults in linked primary care, hospital, disease registry and mortality records in England, [CALIBER (CArdiovascular disease research using LInked Bespoke studies and Electronic health Records)]. The proportion of individuals with dementia, Alzheimer's disease, vascular and rare dementia in each data source was determined. A comparison was made of symptoms and care between people with dementia and age-, sex- and general practice-matched controls, using conditional logistic regression. The lifetime risk and prevalence of dementia and mortality rates in people with and without dementia were estimated with random-effects Poisson models. There were 47,386 people with dementia: 12,633 with Alzheimer's disease, 9540 with vascular and 1539 with rare dementia. Seventy-four percent of cases had corroborating evidence of dementia. People with dementia were more likely to live in a deprived area (conditional OR 1.26;95%CI:1.20-1.31 most vs least deprived), have documented memory impairment (cOR = 11.97;95%CI:11.24-12.75), falls (cOR = 2.36;95%CI:2.31-2.41), depression (cOR = 2.03; 95%CI:1.98-2.09) or anxiety (cOR = 1.27; 95%CI:1.23-1.32). The lifetime risk of dementia at age 65 was 9.2% (95%CI:9.0%-9.4%), in men and 14.9% (95%CI:14.7%-15.1%) in women. The population prevalence of recorded dementia increased from 0.3% in 2000 to 0.7% in 2010. A higher mortality rate was observed in people with than without dementia (IRR = 1.56;95%CI:1.54-1.58).ConclusionsMost people with a record of dementia in linked UK EHR had some corroborating evidence for diagnosis. The estimated 10-year risk of dementia was higher than published population-based estimations. EHR are therefore a promising source of data for dementia research.

Project description:BackgroundA second wave of COVID-19 cases in autumn, 2020, in England led to localised, tiered restrictions (so-called alert levels) and, subsequently, a second national lockdown. We examined the impact of these tiered restrictions, and alternatives for lockdown stringency, timing, and duration, on severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission and hospital admissions and deaths from COVID-19.MethodsWe fit an age-structured mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission to data on hospital admissions and hospital bed occupancy (ISARIC4C/COVID-19 Clinical Information Network, National Health Service [NHS] England), seroprevalence (Office for National Statistics, UK Biobank, REACT-2 study), virology (REACT-1 study), and deaths (Public Health England) across the seven NHS England regions from March 1, to Oct 13, 2020. We analysed mobility (Google Community Mobility) and social contact (CoMix study) data to estimate the effect of tiered restrictions implemented in England, and of lockdowns implemented in Northern Ireland and Wales, in October, 2020, and projected epidemiological scenarios for England up to March 31, 2021.FindingsWe estimated a reduction in the effective reproduction number (Rt) of 2% (95% credible interval [CrI] 0-4) for tier 2, 10% (6-14) for tier 3, 35% (30-41) for a Northern Ireland-stringency lockdown with schools closed, and 44% (37-49) for a Wales-stringency lockdown with schools closed. From Oct 1, 2020, to March 31, 2021, a projected COVID-19 epidemic without tiered restrictions or lockdown results in 280 000 (95% projection interval 274 000-287 000) hospital admissions and 58 500 (55 800-61 100) deaths. Tiered restrictions would reduce hospital admissions to 238 000 (231 000-245 000) and deaths to 48 600 (46 400-50 700). From Nov 5, 2020, a 4-week Wales-type lockdown with schools remaining open-similar to the lockdown measures announced in England in November, 2020-was projected to further reduce hospital admissions to 186 000 (179 000-193 000) and deaths to 36 800 (34 900-38 800). Closing schools was projected to further reduce hospital admissions to 157 000 (152 000-163 000) and deaths to 30 300 (29 000-31 900). A projected lockdown of greater than 4 weeks would reduce deaths but would bring diminishing returns in reducing peak pressure on hospital services. An earlier lockdown would have reduced deaths and hospitalisations in the short term, but would lead to a faster resurgence in cases after January, 2021. In a post-hoc analysis, we estimated that the second lockdown in England (Nov 5-Dec 2) reduced Rt by 22% (95% CrI 15-29), rather than the 32% (25-39) reduction estimated for a Wales-stringency lockdown with schools open.InterpretationLockdown measures outperform less stringent restrictions in reducing cumulative deaths. We projected that the lockdown policy announced to commence in England on Nov 5, with a similar stringency to the lockdown adopted in Wales, would reduce pressure on the health service and would be well timed to suppress deaths over the winter period, while allowing schools to remain open. Following completion of the analysis, we analysed new data from November, 2020, and found that despite similarities in policy, the second lockdown in England had a smaller impact on behaviour than did the second lockdown in Wales, resulting in more deaths and hospitalisations than we originally projected when focusing on a Wales-stringency scenario for the lockdown.FundingHorizon 2020, UK Medical Research Council, and the National Institute for Health Research.

Dataset Information

Acute myocardial infarction hospital admissions and deaths in England: a national follow-back and follow-forward record-linkage study.

Publications

Acute myocardial infarction hospital admissions and deaths in England: a national follow-back and follow-forward record-linkage study.

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