Dataset Information

Simulating nitrogen management impacts on maize production in the U.S. Midwest.

ABSTRACT: Nutrient loss reduction strategies have recently been developed in the U.S. Midwest to decrease the environmental footprint associated with nitrogen (N) fertilizer use. Although these strategies generally suggest decreasing N rates and shifting the timing of N application from fall to spring, the spatiotemporal impacts of these practices on maize yield and fertilizer N use efficiency (NUE, kg grain yield increase per kg N applied) have not been assessed at the watershed scale using crop simulation models. We simulated the effects of N fertilizer rate (0, 168, 190, 224 kg N ha-1) and application timing [fall-applied N (FN): 100% N applied on 1 December; spring-applied N (SN): 100% N applied 10 days before planting; split N: 66% N applied on 1 December + 34% N applied 10 days before planting] on maize grain yield (GY) across 3042 points in Illinois during 2011-2015 using the DSSAT-CERES-Maize model. When simulations were scaled up to the watershed level, results suggest that increases in average maize GY for SN compared to FN occurred in years with higher than average winter rainfall (2011, 2013), whereas yields were similar (+/- 4%) in 2012, 2014, and 2015. Accordingly, differences in NUE for SN compared to FN were small (0.0-1.4 kg GY/kg N) when cumulative winter rainfall was < 300 mm, but increased to 0.1-9.2 kg GY/kg N when winter rainfall was > 500 mm at both 168 kg N ha-1 and 224 kg N ha-1. The combined practice of reducing N fertilizer amounts from 224 kg N ha-1 to 190 kg N ha-1 and shifting from FN to SN resulted in a wide range of yield responses during 2011-2015, with the probability of increasing yields varying from <10% to >70% of simulation points within a watershed. Positive impacts on both GY and NUE occurred in only 60% of simulations for this scenario, highlighting the challenge of simultaneously improving yield and NUE with a 15% N rate reduction in this region.

SUBMITTER: Banger K

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6197644 | biostudies-literature | 2018

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Simulating nitrogen management impacts on maize production in the U.S. Midwest.

Banger Kamaljit K Nafziger Emerson D ED Wang Junming J Muhammad Umar U Pittelkow Cameron M CM

PloS one 20181022 10

Nutrient loss reduction strategies have recently been developed in the U.S. Midwest to decrease the environmental footprint associated with nitrogen (N) fertilizer use. Although these strategies generally suggest decreasing N rates and shifting the timing of N application from fall to spring, the spatiotemporal impacts of these practices on maize yield and fertilizer N use efficiency (NUE, kg grain yield increase per kg N applied) have not been assessed at the watershed scale using crop simulati ...[more]

PMID: 30346957

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Project description:In this study, we assessed the possible impacts of climate variability and change on growth and performance of maize using multi-climate, multi-crop model approaches built on Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) protocols in five different agro-ecological zones (AEZs) of Embu County in Kenya and under different management systems. Adaptation strategies were developed that are locally relevant by identifying a set of technologies that help to offset potential impacts of climate change on maize yields. Impacts and adaptation options were evaluated using projections by 20 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate models under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. Two widely used crop simulation models, Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) and Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) was used to simulate the potential impacts of climate change on maize. Results showed that 20 CMIP5 models are consistent in their projections of increased surface temperatures with different magnitude. Projections by HadGEM2-CC, HadGEM2-ES, and MIROC-ESM tend to be higher than the rest of 17 CMIP5 climate models under both emission scenarios. The projected increase in minimum temperature (Tmin) which ranged between 2.7 and 5.8°C is higher than the increase in maximum temperature (Tmax) that varied between 2.2 and 4.8°C by end century under RCP 8.5. Future projections in rainfall are less certain with high variability projections by GFDL-ESM2G, MIROC5, and NorESM1-M suggest 8 to 25% decline in rainfall, while CanESM2, IPSL-CM5A-MR and BNU-ESM suggested more than 85% increase in rainfall under RCP 8.5 by end of 21st century. Impacts of current and future climatic conditions on maize yields varied depending on the AEZs, soil type, crop management and climate change scenario. Impacts are largely negative in the low potential AEZs such as Lower Midlands (LM4 and LM5) compared with the high potential AEZs Upper Midlands (UM2 and UM3). However, impacts of climate change are largely positive across all AEZs and management conditions when CO2 fertilization is included. Using the differential impacts of climate change, a strategy to adapt maize cultivation to climate change in all the five AEZs was identified by consolidating those practices that contributed to increased yields under climate change. We consider this approach as more appropriate to identify operational adaptation strategies using readily available technologies that contribute positively under both current and future climatic conditions. This approach when adopted in strategic manner will also contribute to further strengthen the development of adaptation strategies at national and local levels. The methods and tools validated and applied in this assessment allowed estimating possible impacts of climate change and adaptation strategies which can provide valuable insights and guidance for adaptation planning.

Dataset Information

Simulating nitrogen management impacts on maize production in the U.S. Midwest.

Publications

Simulating nitrogen management impacts on maize production in the U.S. Midwest.

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