When too much isn't enough: Does current food production meet global nutritional needs?
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Kc KB
PROVIDER: S-EPMC6198966 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:Bangladesh faces huge challenges in achieving food security due to its high population, diet changes, and limited room for expanding cropland and cropping intensity. The objective of this study is to assess the degree to which Bangladesh can be self-sufficient in terms of domestic maize, rice and wheat production by the years 2030 and 2050 by closing the existing gap (Yg) between yield potential (Yp) and actual farm yield (Ya), accounting for possible changes in cropland area. Yield potential and yield gaps were calculated for the three crops using well-validated crop models and site-specific weather, management and soil data, and upscaled to the whole country. We assessed potential grain production in the years 2030 and 2050 for six land use change scenarios (general decrease in arable land; declining ground water tables in the north; cropping of fallow areas in the south; effect of sea level rise; increased cropping intensity; and larger share of cash crops) and three levels of Yg closure (1: no yield increase; 2: Yg closure at a level equivalent to 50% (50% Yg closure); 3: Yg closure to a level of 85% of Yp (irrigated crops) and 80% of water-limited yield potential or Yw (rainfed crops) (full Yg closure)). In addition, changes in demand with low and high population growth rates, and substitution of rice by maize in future diets were also examined. Total aggregated demand of the three cereals (in milled rice equivalents) in 2030 and 2050, based on the UN median population variant, is projected to be 21 and 24% higher than in 2010. Current Yg represent 50% (irrigated rice), 48-63% (rainfed rice), 49% (irrigated wheat), 40% (rainfed wheat), 46% (irrigated maize), and 44% (rainfed maize) of their Yp or Yw. With 50% Yg closure and for various land use changes, self-sufficiency ratio will be > 1 for rice in 2030 and about one in 2050 but well below one for maize and wheat in both 2030 and 2050. With full Yg closure, self-sufficiency ratios will be well above one for rice and all three cereals jointly but below one for maize and wheat for all scenarios, except for the scenario with drastic decrease in boro rice area to allow for area expansion for cash crops. Full Yg closure of all cereals is needed to compensate for area decreases and demand increases, and then even some maize and large amounts of wheat imports will be required to satisfy demand in future. The results of this analysis have important implications for Bangladesh and other countries with high population growth rate, shrinking arable land due to rapid urbanization, and highly vulnerable to climate change.
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Project description:Phylogenetic profiling is a well-established approach for predicting gene function based on patterns of gene presence and absence across species. Much of the recent developments have focused on methodological improvements, but relatively little is known about the effect of input data size on the quality of predictions. In this work, we ask: how many genomes and functional annotations need to be considered for phylogenetic profiling to be effective? Phylogenetic profiling generally benefits from an increased amount of input data. However, by decomposing this improvement in predictive accuracy in terms of the contribution of additional genomes and of additional annotations, we observed diminishing returns in adding more than ? 100 genomes, whereas increasing the number of annotations remained strongly beneficial throughout. We also observed that maximising phylogenetic diversity within a clade of interest improves predictive accuracy, but the effect is small compared to changes in the number of genomes under comparison. Finally, we show that these findings are supported in light of the Open World Assumption, which posits that functional annotation databases are inherently incomplete. All the tools and data used in this work are available for reuse from http://lab.dessimoz.org/14_phylprof. Scripts used to analyse the data are available on request from the authors.
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