Dataset Information

Numerical Evaluation of the Modern and Future Origins of Atmospheric River Moisture over the West Coast of the United States.

ABSTRACT: Atmospheric rivers are one of the major causes of extreme precipitation and flooding in many regions around the world, and have been found to contribute substantially to global poleward moisture transport. However, the evaporative origin of the moisture in atmospheric rivers remains unclear, at least on climatological time-scales. Here we use the water tracer and water isotope-enabled CAM5 model to examine the moisture sources of atmospheric rivers that impact the West Coast of the United States. The climatological distribution of moisture sources is determined for both the modern-era and for 2100 under an RCP8.5 scenario. It is found that 33 to 53 % of the precipitable water over the West Coast of the United States originates from the Northeast Pacific, in particular the midlatitudes and subtropics, although in JJA more moisture is recycled from continental regions. It is also found that although atmospheric rivers are at least 70 % Northeast Pacific moisture, a significant amount of the moisture is derived from tropical latitudes (>15 % from south of 20° N). It is found that in the warmer 2100 climate there is a 39 % increase in the magnitude of ARs. In this future epoch, moisture is transported from more remote regions for all seasons and for both atmospheric rivers and the average climatology. To provide future observational evidence that this model result is robust, it is shown that water isotopes provide an observational constraint on the moisture transport pathways, and thus the possibility to observe changes in moisture source.

SUBMITTER: Nusbaumer J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6204266 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Numerical Evaluation of the Modern and Future Origins of Atmospheric River Moisture over the West Coast of the United States.

Nusbaumer Jesse J Noone David D

Journal of geophysical research. Atmospheres : JGR 20180605 12

Atmospheric rivers are one of the major causes of extreme precipitation and flooding in many regions around the world, and have been found to contribute substantially to global poleward moisture transport. However, the evaporative origin of the moisture in atmospheric rivers remains unclear, at least on climatological time-scales. Here we use the water tracer and water isotope-enabled CAM5 model to examine the moisture sources of atmospheric rivers that impact the West Coast of the United States ...[more]

PMID: 30381797

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Project description:Satellite precipitation products have been largely improved in the recent years particularly with the launch of the global precipitation measurement (GPM) core satellite. Moreover, the development of techniques for exploiting the information provided by satellite soil moisture to complement/enhance precipitation products have improved the accuracy of accumulated rainfall estimates over land. Such satellite enhanced precipitation products, available with a short latency (< 1 day), represent an important and new source of information for river flow prediction and water resources management, particularly in developing countries in which ground observations are scarcely available and the access to such data is not always ensured. In this study, three recently developed rainfall products obtained from the integration of GPM rainfall and satellite soil moisture products have been used; namely GPM+SM2RAIN, PRISM-SMOS, and PRISM-SMAP. The prediction of observed daily river discharge at 10 basins located in Europe (4), West Africa (3) and South Africa (3) is carried out. For comparison, we have also considered three rainfall products based on: (1) GPM only, i.e., the Early Run version of the Integrated Multi-Satellite Retrievals for GPM (GPM-ER), (2) rain gauges, i.e., the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre, and (3) the latest European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts reanalysis, ERA5. Three different conceptual and lumped rainfall-runoff models are employed to obtain robust and reliable results over the 3-year data period 2015-2017. Results indicate that, particularly over scarcely gauged areas (West Africa), the integrated products outperform both ground- and reanalysis-based rainfall estimates. For all basins, the GPM+SM2RAIN product is performing the best among the short latency products with mean Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE) equal to 0.87, and significantly better than GPM-ER (mean KGE = 0.77). The integrated products are found to reproduce particularly well the high flows. These results highlight the strong need to disseminate such integrated satellite rainfall products for hydrological (and agricultural) applications in poorly gauged areas such as Africa and South America.

Dataset Information

Numerical Evaluation of the Modern and Future Origins of Atmospheric River Moisture over the West Coast of the United States.

Publications

Numerical Evaluation of the Modern and Future Origins of Atmospheric River Moisture over the West Coast of the United States.

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