The macroeconomic burden of noncommunicable diseases in the United States: Estimates and projections.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Chen S
PROVIDER: S-EPMC6211719 | biostudies-literature | 2018
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Publications
The macroeconomic burden of noncommunicable diseases in the United States: Estimates and projections.
Chen Simiao S Kuhn Michael M Prettner Klaus K Bloom David E DE
PloS one 20181101 11
We develop and calibrate a dynamic production function model to assess how noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) will affect U.S. productive capacity in 2015-2050. In this framework, aggregate output is produced according to a human capital-augmented production function that accounts for the effects of projected disease prevalence. NCDs influence the economy through the following pathways: 1) when working-age individuals die of a disease, aggregate output undergoes a direct loss because physical capit ...[more]
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Project description:BackgroundWhile a few studies have tried to estimate the economic burden of noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) associated with air pollution, most previous studies have methodological limitations. For example, neither the cost of illness approach nor the value of a statistical life approach accounts for economic adjustment mechanisms (i.e., they do not include substitution of labor lost due to an illness with capital or other workers), and neither approach considers disease impact on physical and human capital. Furthermore, since new evidence shows that air pollution is also linked to diabetes, previous studies did not estimate the economic costs of diabetes associated with air pollution. The total economic costs of NCDs associated with air pollution under a comprehensive framework therefore remained unexplored.ObjectivesThis study uses a human capital-augmented production function framework to analyze and estimate the macroeconomic impact of NCDs associated with air pollution in China in 1990-2030 and in 2015-2030. It makes several contributions-beyond those of the extant literature-to understanding the economic burden of NCDs associated with air pollution. It does this by accounting for economic adjustment mechanisms and by incorporating human capital into the model.MethodsIn our framework, aggregate output is produced according to a human capital-augmented production function that accounts for the effects of projected disease prevalence. NCDs associated with air pollution affect the aggregate output through three pathways: 1) Mortality effect-when working-age individuals die from a disease, aggregate output decreases because physical capital is an imperfect substitute for the loss of human capital in the production process. 2) Morbidity effect-when working-age individuals suffer from a disease but do not die from it, their contribution to overall output also decreases depending on disease severity; for example, they might work fewer hours or with lower productivity, or they might retire earlier. We also incorporate age-specific human capital to account for education-related productivity differences between members of different cohorts who are differentially affected by NCDs. 3) Treatment cost effect-when households in which members suffer from a disease use part of their savings to cover the out-of-pocket share of their treatment costs, physical capital accumulation diminishes. Our estimates are based on the recently updated Global Burden of Disease epidemiology data, which identify four pathways through which air pollution affects health: cardiovascular diseases, respiratory diseases, cancer, and diabetes.ResultsTotal losses from NCDs associated with air pollution in China in 1990-2030 are estimated to be $1,137 billion (constant 2010 USD) and in 2015-2030 are estimated to be $499 billion (constant 2010 USD). Cardiovascular diseases account for the highest burden, followed by chronic respiratory diseases, diabetes, and cancer. Treatment costs account for nearly 30% of the total economic burden of NCDs associated with air pollution. We also find that the share of economic burden associated with treatment costs is highest for diabetes. This is mainly driven by the fact that, on a per case basis, diabetes has a lower health burden than other diseases associated with air pollution.DiscussionThe NCDs associated with air pollution impose a large economic burden on China.
| S-EPMC6472813 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Although many studies have modelled the national burdens of hospitalizations and deaths due to influenza, few studies have considered the outpatient burden. To fill this gap for the United States (US), we applied traditional statistical modelling approaches to time series derived from large medical claims databases held in the private sector.We accessed ICD-9-coded office visit data extracted from Truven Health Analytics' MarketScan Commercial database covering about one third of the US population <65 years during 2001-2009, and Medicare Supplemental data covering about one fifth of US seniors 65+ during 2006-2009. We extracted weekly time series of visits due to respiratory diagnoses, otitis media (OM), and urinary tract infections (UTI), a "negative control". We used multiple linear regression modelling to estimate age-specific influenza-related excess in office visits.In the <65 year age group, in the 8 pre-pandemic seasons studied and for the broadest defined respiratory outcome, the model attributed an average of ~14.5 M (Standard deviation [SD] across seasons 3.9 million) office visits to influenza (rate of 5,581/100,000 population). Of these, ~80 % of visits occurred in the 5-17 and 18-49 age group. In school children aged 5-17 year olds and adult 18-64 year age groups the majority of visits were due to influenza B, while A/H3N2 explained most visits in children <5 year olds. The model further attributed ~2.2 M OM visits (SD across seasons 790,000) annually to influenza, of which 86 % of these occurred in children <18 years; this indicates that 6.4 % of all infants <2 years and 4.9 % of all toddlers aged 2-4 years in the US have an influenza-attributable outpatient visit with an OM diagnosis. In seniors 65 years and older, our model attributed ~0.7 M (SD across seasons 351,000) respiratory visits to influenza (rate of 1,887/100,000 population). The model identified no significant excess UTI (negative control) visits in most seasons.This is to our knowledge a first study of the outpatient burden of influenza in the US in a large database. The model estimated that 10 % of all children <18 years and 4 % of the entire population <65 years seek outpatient care for respiratory illness attributable to influenza annually.ClinicalTrial.gov, NCT02019732 .
| S-EPMC5100308 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Despite a large increase in Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) severity, morbidity and mortality in the US since the early 2000s, CDI burden estimates have had limited generalizability and comparability due to widely varying clinical settings, populations, or study designs.A decision-analytic model incorporating key input parameters important in CDI epidemiology was developed to estimate the annual number of initial and recurrent CDI cases, attributable and all-cause deaths, economic burden in the general population, and specific number of high-risk patients in different healthcare settings and the community in the US. Economic burden was calculated adopting a societal perspective using a bottom-up approach that identified healthcare resources consumed in the management of CDI.Annually, a total of 606,058 (439,237 initial and 166,821 recurrent) episodes of CDI were predicted in 2014: 34.3 % arose from community exposure. Over 44,500 CDI-attributable deaths in 2014 were estimated to occur. High-risk susceptible individuals representing 5 % of the total hospital population accounted for 23 % of hospitalized CDI patients. The economic cost of CDI was $5.4 billion ($4.7 billion (86.7 %) in healthcare settings; $725 million (13.3 %) in the community), mostly due to hospitalization.A modeling framework provides more comprehensive and detailed national-level estimates of CDI cases, recurrences, deaths and cost in different patient groups than currently available from separate individual studies. As new treatments for CDI are developed, this model can provide reliable estimates to better focus healthcare resources to those specific age-groups, risk-groups, and care settings in the US where they are most needed. (Trial Identifier ClinicaTrials.gov: NCT01241552).
| S-EPMC4912810 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe "greying of AIDS" - the aging of the population living with HIV who benefit from antiretroviral treatment (ART) and the emergence of age-related non-communicable diseases (NCDs) - has been well documented. The emerging health systems challenges - eg, the implications of HIV on the disease burden from NCDs on the population level, and the evolving role of HIV as a co-morbidity or co-existing disease of various NCDs - are less well understood. The paper elucidates these challenges by providing a quantitative analysis of HIV-NCD interactions for Botswana.MethodsWe projected the prevalence of HIV and of selected NCDs in Botswana using demographic and HIV-specific estimates building on data on the state and the dynamics of the HIV epidemic, using the Spectrum modelling software, and extrapolating on estimates of the prevalence of NCDs from the 2015 global burden of disease (GBD).ResultsHIV has slowed down overall population aging and thus has attenuated the growing burden of many NCDs so far, because cohorts reaching old age have been decimated by AIDS-related mortality in the 1990s and early 2000s. Aging and the rise in the prevalence of NCDs, however, will accelerate rapidly from about 2030 because of reduced attrition of cohorts living with HIV since the start of the ART scale-up in Botswana. While HIV prevalence will decline over time, the health needs of people living with HIV will become more complex. HIV prevalence among the growing populations affected by various important NCDs will not decline for decades, because of the aging of the population living with HIV and interactions between HIV, ART and NCDs.ConclusionsEven though HIV prevalence is projected to decline steeply to 2030 because of reduced HIV incidence, the prevalence of HIV among people affected by many of the most important NCDs will increase or barely change. While the health care needs of people living with HIV will increase and become more complex, HIV will also emerge as a key factor complicating the management of the growing burden of NCDs. Health systems will need to prepare for the challenge of large numbers of patients living with both HIV and NCDs.
| S-EPMC6607958 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ImportanceSkin and subcutaneous diseases affect the health of millions of individuals in the US. Data are needed that highlight the geographic trends and variations of skin disease burden across the country to guide health care decision-making.ObjectiveTo characterize trends and variations in the burden of skin and subcutaneous tissue diseases across the US from 1990 to 2017.Design, setting, and participantsFor this cohort study, data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD), a study with an online database that incorporates current and previous epidemiological studies of disease burden, and from GBD 2017, which includes more than 90 000 data sources such as systematic reviews, surveys, population-based disease registries, hospital inpatient and outpatient data, cohort studies, and autopsy data. The GBD separated skin conditions into 15 subcategories according to incidence, prevalence, adequacy of data, and standardized disease definitions. GBD 2017 also estimated the burden from melanoma of the skin and keratinocyte carcinoma. Data analysis for the present study was conducted from September 9, 2019, to March 31, 2020.Main outcomes and measuresPrimary study outcomes included age-standardized disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), incidence, and prevalence. The data were stratified by US states with the highest and lowest age-standardized DALY rate per 100 000 people, incidence, and prevalence of each skin condition. The percentage change in DALY rates in each state was calculated from 1990 to 2017.ResultsOverall, age-standardized DALY rates for skin and subcutaneous diseases increased from 1990 (821.6; 95% uncertainty interval [UI], 570.3-1124.9) to 2017 (884.2; 95% UI, 614.0-1207.9) in all 50 states and the District of Columbia. The degree of increase varied according to geographic location, with the largest percentage change of 0.12% (95% UI, 0.09%-0.15%) in New York and the smallest percentage change of 0.04% (95% UI, 0.02%-0.07%) in Colorado, 0.04% (95% UI, 0.01%-0.06%) in Nevada, 0.04% (95% UI, 0.02%-0.07%) in New Mexico, and 0.04% (95% UI, 0.02%-0.07%) in Utah. The age-standardized DALY rate, incidence, and prevalence of specific skin conditions differed among the states. New York had the highest age-standardized DALY rate for skin and subcutaneous disease in 2017 (1097.0 [95% UI, 764.9-1496.1]), whereas Wyoming had the lowest age-standardized DALY rate (672.9 [95% UI, 465.6-922.3]). In all 50 states and the District of Columbia, women had higher age-standardized DALY rates for overall skin and subcutaneous diseases than men (women: 971.20 [95% UI, 676.76-1334.59] vs men: 799.23 [95% UI, 559.62-1091.50]). However, men had higher DALY rates than women for malignant melanoma (men: 80.82 [95% UI, 51.68-123.18] vs women: 42.74 [95% UI, 34.05-70.66]) and keratinocyte carcinomas (men: 37.56 [95% UI, 29.35-49.52] vs women: 14.42 [95% UI, 10.01-20.66]).Conclusions and relevanceData from the GBD suggest that the burden of skin and subcutaneous disease was large and that DALY rate trends varied across the US; the age-standardized DALY rate for keratinocyte carcinoma appeared greater in men. These findings can be used by states to target interventions and meet the needs of their population.
| S-EPMC7287935 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background & aimsEstimates of disease burden can inform national health priorities for research, clinical care, and policy. We aimed to estimate health care use and spending among gastrointestinal (GI) (including luminal, liver, and pancreatic) diseases in the United States.MethodsWe estimated health care use and spending based on the most currently available administrative claims from commercial and Medicare Supplemental plans, data from the GI Quality Improvement Consortium Registry, and national databases.ResultsIn 2015, annual health care expenditures for gastrointestinal diseases totaled $135.9 billion. Hepatitis ($23.3 billion), esophageal disorders ($18.1 billion), biliary tract disease ($10.3 billion), abdominal pain ($10.2 billion), and inflammatory bowel disease ($7.2 billion) were the most expensive. Yearly, there were more than 54.4 million ambulatory visits with a primary diagnosis for a GI disease, 3.0 million hospital admissions, and 540,500 all-cause 30-day readmissions. There were 266,600 new cases of GI cancers diagnosed and 144,300 cancer deaths. Each year, there were 97,700 deaths from non-malignant GI diseases. An estimated 11.0 million colonoscopies, 6.1 million upper endoscopies, 313,000 flexible sigmoidoscopies, 178,400 upper endoscopic ultrasound examinations, and 169,500 endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography procedures were performed annually. Among average-risk persons aged 50-75 years who underwent colonoscopy, 34.6% had 1 or more adenomatous polyps, 4.7% had 1 or more advanced adenomatous polyps, and 5.7% had 1 or more serrated polyps removed.ConclusionsGI diseases contribute substantially to health care use in the United States. Total expenditures for GI diseases are $135.9 billion annually-greater than for other common diseases. Expenditures are likely to continue increasing.
| S-EPMC6689327 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Estimates of influenza disease burden are broadly useful for public health, helping national and local authorities monitor epidemiologic trends, plan and allocate resources, and promote influenza vaccination. Historically, estimates of the burden of seasonal influenza in the United States, focused mainly on influenza-related mortality and hospitalization, were generated every few years. Since the 2010-2011 influenza season, annual US influenza burden estimates have been generated and expanded to include estimates of influenza-related outpatient medical visits and symptomatic illness in the community.We used routinely collected surveillance data, outbreak field investigations, and proportions of people seeking health care from survey results to estimate the number of illnesses, medical visits, hospitalizations, and deaths due to influenza during six influenza seasons (2010-2011 through 2015-2016).We estimate that the number of influenza-related illnesses that have occurred during influenza season has ranged from 9.2 million to 35.6 million, including 140 000 to 710 000 influenza-related hospitalizations.These annual efforts have strengthened public health communications products and supported timely assessment of the impact of vaccination through estimates of illness and hospitalizations averted. Additionally, annual estimates of influenza burden have highlighted areas where disease surveillance needs improvement to better support public health decision making for seasonal influenza epidemics as well as future pandemics.
| S-EPMC5818346 | biostudies-other
Project description:Aims/hypothesisThe aim of this study was to make projections of the future diabetes burden for the adult US population based in part on the prevalence of individuals at high risk of developing diabetes.Materials and methodsModels were created from data in the nationally representative National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) II mortality survey (1976-1992), the NHANES III (1988-1994) and the NHANES 1999-2002. Population models for adults (>20 years of age) from NHANES III data were fitted to known diabetes prevalence in the NHANES 1999-2002 before making future projections. We used a multivariable diabetes risk score to estimate the likelihood of diabetes incidence in 10 years. Estimates of future diabetes (diagnosed and undiagnosed) prevalence in 2011, 2021, and 2031 were made under several assumptions.ResultsBased on the multivariable diabetes risk score, the number of adults at high risk of diabetes was 38.4 million in 1991 and 49.9 million in 2001. The total diabetes burden is anticipated to be 11.5% (25.4 million) in 2011, 13.5% (32.6 million) in 2021, and 14.5% (37.7 million) in 2031. Among individuals aged 30 to 39 years old who are not currently targeted for screening according to age, the prevalence of diabetes is expected to rise from 3.7% in 2001 to 5.2% in 2031. By 2031, 20.2% of adult Hispanic individuals are expected to have diabetes.Conclusions/interpretationThe prevalence of diabetes is projected to rise to substantially greater levels than previously estimated. Diabetes prevalence within the Hispanic community is projected to be potentially overwhelming.
| S-EPMC1849422 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Measuring rates and causes of mortalities is important in animal ecology and management. Observing the fates of known individuals is a common method of estimating life history variables, including mortality patterns. It has long been assumed that data lost when known animals disappear were unbiased. We test and reject this assumption under conditions common to most, if not all, studies using marked animals. We illustrate the bias for 4 endangered wolf populations in the United States by reanalyzing data and assumptions about the known and unknown fates of marked wolves to calculate the degree to which risks of different causes of death were mismeasured. We find that, when using traditional methods, the relative risk of mortality from legal killing measured as a proportion of all known fates was overestimated by 0.05-0.16 and the relative risk of poaching was underestimated by 0.17-0.44. We show that published government estimates are affected by these biases and, importantly, are underestimating the risk of poaching. The underestimates have obscured the magnitude of poaching as the major threat to endangered wolf populations. We offer methods to correct estimates of mortality risk for marked animals of any taxon and describe the conditions under which traditional methods produce more or less bias. We also show how correcting past and future estimates of mortality parameters can address uncertainty about wildlife populations and increase the predictability and sustainability of wildlife management interventions.
| S-EPMC6093422 | biostudies-other
Project description:Despite vaccination recommendations, the burden of vaccine-preventable diseases remains high in older adults in the United States (US), contributing to substantial morbidity, mortality, and health care resource use and costs. To adequately plan for health care resource needs and to help inform vaccination policies, burden of disease projections that account for population aging over the coming decades are needed. As a first step, this exploratory study projects the burden of influenza, pertussis, herpes zoster, and pneumococcal disease in adults aged 50 y and older in the US, using a population-based modeling framework with separate decision trees for each vaccine-preventable disease. The model uses projected population estimates from the US Census Bureau to account for changes in the US population over time and then calculates expected numbers of cases and associated costs for each disease, keeping current estimates of age-specific disease incidence, vaccine coverage, and efficacy constant over time. This approach was used to focus the exploratory analysis on the burden of disease that may be expected due to population changes alone, assuming that all else remains unchanged. Due to population growth and the shifting age distribution over the next 30 y, the annual societal economic burden for the four vaccine-preventable diseases is projected to increase from approximately $35 billion to $49 billion, resulting in cumulative costs of approximately $1.3 trillion, as well as more than 1 million disease-related deaths. Given such notable burden, further efforts to increase vaccination coverage and effectiveness in older adults are needed.
| S-EPMC7899694 | biostudies-literature