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Early detection and treatment strategies for breast cancer in low-income and upper middle-income countries: a modelling study.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Poor breast cancer survival in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) can be attributed to advanced-stage presentation and poor access to systemic therapy. We aimed to estimate the outcomes of different early detection strategies in combination with systemic chemotherapy and endocrine therapy in LMICs. METHODS:We adapted a microsimulation model to project outcomes of three early detection strategies alone or in combination with three systemic treatment programmes beyond standard of care (programme A): programme B was endocrine therapy for all oestrogen-receptor (ER)-positive cases; programme C was programme B plus chemotherapy for ER-negative cases; programme D was programme C plus chemotherapy for advanced ER-positive cases. The main outcomes were reductions in breast cancer-related mortality and lives saved per 100?000 women relative to the standard of care for women aged 30-49 years in a low-income setting (East Africa; using incidence data and life tables from Uganda and data on tumour characteristics from various East African countries) and for women aged 50-69 years in a middle-income setting (Colombia). FINDINGS:In the East African setting, relative mortality reductions were 8-41%, corresponding to 23 (95% uncertainty interval -12 to 49) to 114 (80 to 138) lives saved per 100?000 women over 10 years. In Colombia, mortality reductions were 7-25%, corresponding to 32 (-29 to 70) to 105 (61 to 141) lives saved per 100?000 women over 10 years. INTERPRETATION:The best projected outcomes were in settings where access to both early detection and adjuvant therapy is improved. Even in the absence of mammographic screening, improvements in detection can provide substantial benefit in settings where advanced-stage presentation is common. FUNDING:Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center/University of Washington Cancer Consortium Cancer Center Support Grant of the US National Institutes of Health.

SUBMITTER: Birnbaum JK

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6214657 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Early detection and treatment strategies for breast cancer in low-income and upper middle-income countries: a modelling study.

Birnbaum Jeanette K JK Duggan Catherine C Anderson Benjamin O BO Etzioni Ruth R

The Lancet. Global health 20180801 8

<h4>Background</h4>Poor breast cancer survival in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) can be attributed to advanced-stage presentation and poor access to systemic therapy. We aimed to estimate the outcomes of different early detection strategies in combination with systemic chemotherapy and endocrine therapy in LMICs.<h4>Methods</h4>We adapted a microsimulation model to project outcomes of three early detection strategies alone or in combination with three systemic treatment programme ...[more]

PMID: 30012269

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Project description:BackgroundThe majority of the five million perinatal deaths worldwide take place in low-resource settings. In contrast to high-resource settings, almost 50% of stillbirths occur intrapartum. The aim of this study was to synthesise available evidence of strategies for foetal surveillance in low-resource settings and associated neonatal and maternal outcomes, including barriers to their implementation.Methods and findingsThe review was registered with Prospero (CRD42016038679). Five databases were searched up to May 1st, 2016 for studies related to intrapartum foetal monitoring strategies and neonatal outcomes in low-resource settings. Two authors extracted data and assessed the risk of bias for each study. The outcomes were narratively synthesised. Strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats analysis (SWOT) was conducted for each monitoring technique to analyse their implementation. There were 37 studies included: five intervention and 32 observational studies. Use of the partograph improved perinatal outcomes. Intermittent auscultation with Pinard was associated with lowest rates of caesarean sections (10-15%) but with comparable perinatal outcomes to hand-held Doppler and Cardiotocography (CTG). CTG was associated with the highest rates of caesarean sections (28-34%) without proven benefits for perinatal outcome. Several tests on admission (admission tests) and adjunctive tests including foetal stimulation tests improved the accuracy of foetal heart rate monitoring in predicting adverse perinatal outcomes.ConclusionsFrom the available evidence, the partograph is associated with improved perinatal outcomes and is recommended for use with intermittent auscultation for intrapartum monitoring in low resource settings. CTG is associated with higher caesarean section rates without proven benefits for perinatal outcomes, and should not be recommended in low-resource settings. High-quality evidence considering implementation barriers and enablers is needed to determine the optimal foetal monitoring strategy in low-resource settings.

Project description:BackgroundIntroduction of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination has been slow in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) because of resource constraints and worldwide shortage of vaccine supplies. To help inform WHO recommendations, we modelled various HPV vaccination strategies to examine the optimal use of limited vaccine supplies and best allocation of scarce resources in LMICs in the context of the WHO global call to eliminate cervical cancer as a public health problem.MethodsIn this mathematical modelling analysis, we developed HPV-ADVISE LMIC, a transmission-dynamic model of HPV infection and diseases calibrated to four LMICs: India, Vietnam, Uganda, and Nigeria. For different vaccination strategies that encompassed use of a nine-valent vaccine (or a two-valent or four-valent vaccine assuming high cross-protection), we estimated three outcomes: reduction in the age-standardised rate of cervical cancer, number of doses needed to prevent one case of cervical cancer (NNV; as a measure of efficiency), and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER; in 2017 international $ per disability-adjusted life-year [DALY] averted). We examined different vaccination strategies by varying the ages of routine HPV vaccination and number of age cohorts vaccinated, the population targeted, and the number of doses used. In our base case, we assumed 100% lifetime protection against HPV-16, HPV-18, HPV-31, HPV-33, HPV-45, HPV-52, and HPV-58; vaccination coverage of 80%; and a time horizon of 100 years. For the cost-effectiveness analysis, we used a 3% discount rate. Elimination of cervical cancer was defined as an age-standardised incidence of less than four cases per 100 000 woman-years.FindingsWe predicted that HPV vaccination could lead to cervical cancer elimination in Vietnam, India, and Nigeria, but not in Uganda. Compared with no vaccination, strategies that involved vaccinating girls aged 9-14 years with two doses were predicted to be the most efficient and cost-effective in all four LMICs. NNV ranged from 78 to 381 and ICER ranged from $28 per DALY averted to $1406 per DALY averted depending on the country. The most efficient and cost-effective strategies were routine vaccination of girls aged 14 years, with or without a later switch to routine vaccination of girls aged 9 years, and routine vaccination of girls aged 9 years with a 5-year extended interval between doses and a catch-up programme at age 14 years. Vaccinating boys (aged 9-14 years) or women aged 18 years or older resulted in substantially higher NNVs and ICERs.InterpretationWe identified two strategies that could maximise efforts to prevent cervical cancer in LMICs given constraints on vaccine supplies and costs and that would allow a maximum of LMICs to introduce HPV vaccination.FundingWorld Health Organization, Canadian Institute of Health Research, Fonds de recherche du Québec-Santé, Compute Canada, PATH, and The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.TranslationsFor the French and Spanish translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Project description:BackgroundUnderstanding subnational variation in age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) and total fertility rates (TFRs), and geographical clustering of high fertility and its determinants in low-income and middle-income countries, is increasingly needed for geographical targeting and prioritising of policy. We aimed to identify variation in fertility rates, to describe patterns of key selected fertility determinants in areas of high fertility.MethodsWe did a subnational analysis of ASFRs and TFRs from the most recent publicly available and nationally representative cross-sectional Demographic and Health Surveys and Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys collected between 2010 and 2016 for 70 low-income, lower-middle-income, and upper-middle-income countries, across 932 administrative units. We assessed the degree of global spatial autocorrelation by using Moran's I statistic and did a spatial cluster analysis using the Getis-Ord Gi* local statistic to examine the geographical clustering of fertility and key selected fertility determinants. Descriptive analysis was used to investigate the distribution of ASFRs and of selected determinants in each cluster.FindingsTFR varied from below replacement (2·1 children per women) in 36 of the 932 subnational regions (mainly located in India, Myanmar, Colombia, and Armenia), to rates of 8 and higher in 14 subnational regions, located in sub-Saharan Africa and Afghanistan. Areas with high-fertility clusters were mostly associated with areas of low prevalence of women with secondary or higher education, low use of contraception, and high unmet needs for family planning, although exceptions existed.InterpretationSubstantial within-country variation in the distribution of fertility rates highlights the need for tailored programmes and strategies in high-fertility cluster areas to increase the use of contraception and access to secondary education, and to reduce unmet need for family planning.FundingWellcome Trust, the UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office, and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Project description:BACKGROUND:The aim of this study was to assess the relationship between early childhood caries (ECC) in 3-5-year-old children, seven indicators of poverty and the indicator of monetary poverty in low- and middle-income countries (LICs, MICs). METHODS:This ecologic study utilized 2007 to 2017 country-level data for LICs and MICs. Explanatory variables were seven indicators of poverty namely food, water, sanitation, health, shelter, access to information, education; and monetary poverty. The outcome variable was the percentage of 3-5-year-old children with ECC. A series of univariate general linear regression models were used to assess the relationship between the percentage of 3-5?year-old children with ECC and each of the seven indicators of poverty, and monetary poverty. This was followed by multivariable regression models to determined the combined effect of the seven indicators of poverty, as well as the combined effect of the seven indicators of poverty and monetary poverty. Adjusted R2 measured models' ability to explain the variation among LICs and MICs in the percentage of 3-5-year-old children with ECC. RESULTS:Significantly more people had food, sanitation, shelter, access to information, education and monetary poverty in LICs than in MICs. There was no difference in the prevalence of ECC in 3-5-year-old children between LICs and MICs. The combination of the seven indicators of poverty explained 15% of the variation in the percentage of 3-5-year-old children with ECC compared to 1% explained by monetary poverty. When the seven indicators of poverty and the indicator for monetary poverty were combined, the amount of variation explained by them was 10%. Only two of the poverty indicators had a direct relationship with the percentage of children with ECC; there was a higher percentage of ECC in countries with higher percentage of population living in slums (B?=?0.35) and in those countries with higher percentage of the population living below poverty lines (B?=?0.19). The other indicators had an inverse relationship. CONCLUSION:The use of multiple indicators to measures of poverty explained greater amount of variation in the percentage of 3-5-year-olds with ECC in LICs and MICs than using only the indicator for monetary poverty.

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Early detection and treatment strategies for breast cancer in low-income and upper middle-income countries: a modelling study.

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Early detection and treatment strategies for breast cancer in low-income and upper middle-income countries: a modelling study.

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