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Elimination prospects of the Dutch HIV epidemic among men who have sex with men in the era of preexposure prophylaxis.

ABSTRACT: OBJECTIVE:Preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is a promising intervention to help end the HIV epidemic among men who have sex with men (MSM) in the Netherlands. We aimed to assess the impact of PrEP on HIV prevalence in this population and to determine the levels of PrEP coverage necessary for HIV elimination. DESIGN AND METHODS:We developed a mathematical model of HIV transmission in a population stratified by sexual risk behavior with universal antiretroviral treatment (ART) and daily PrEP use depending on an individual's risk behavior. We computed the effective reproduction number, HIV prevalence, ART and PrEP coverage for increasing ART and PrEP uptake levels, and examined how these were affected by PrEP effectiveness and duration of PrEP use. RESULTS:At current levels of ART coverage of 80%, PrEP effectiveness of 86% and PrEP duration of 5 years, HIV elimination required 82% PrEP coverage in the highest risk group (12?000 MSM with more than 18 partners per year). If ART coverage increased by 9%, the elimination threshold was at 70% PrEP coverage. For shorter PrEP duration and lower effectiveness elimination prospects were less favorable. For the same number of PrEP users distributed among two groups with highest risk behavior, prevalence dropped from the current 8 to 4.6%. CONCLUSION:PrEP for HIV prevention among MSM could, in principle, eliminate HIV from this population in the Netherlands. The highest impact of PrEP on prevalence was predicted when ART and PrEP coverage increased simultaneously and PrEP was used by the highest risk individuals.

SUBMITTER: Rozhnova G

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6221378 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Elimination prospects of the Dutch HIV epidemic among men who have sex with men in the era of preexposure prophylaxis.

Rozhnova Ganna G Heijne Janneke J Bezemer Daniela D van Sighem Ard A Presanis Anne A De Angelis Daniela D Kretzschmar Mirjam M

AIDS (London, England) 20181101 17

<h4>Objective</h4>Preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is a promising intervention to help end the HIV epidemic among men who have sex with men (MSM) in the Netherlands. We aimed to assess the impact of PrEP on HIV prevalence in this population and to determine the levels of PrEP coverage necessary for HIV elimination.<h4>Design and methods</h4>We developed a mathematical model of HIV transmission in a population stratified by sexual risk behavior with universal antiretroviral treatment (ART) and dail ...[more]

PMID: 30379687

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Project description:BackgroundRoutine HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) and HIV care appointments provide opportunities for screening men who have sex with men (MSM) for hepatitis C virus infection (HCV). However, levels of screening required for achieving the WHO elimination target of reducing HCV incidence by 90% by 2030 among all MSM are unknown.MethodsAn HCV/HIV transmission model was calibrated to UK prevalence of HIV among MSM (4·7%) and chronic HCV infection among HIV-positive MSM (9·9%) and HIV-negative MSM (1.2%). Assuming 12·5% coverage of PrEP among HIV-negative MSM, we evaluated the relative reduction in overall HCV incidence by 2030 (compared to 2018 levels) of HCV screening every 12/6-months (alongside completing direct acting antiviral treatment within 6-months of diagnosis) in PrEP users and/or HIV-diagnosed MSM. We estimated the additional screening required among HIV-negative non-PrEP users to reduce overall incidence by 90% by 2030. The effect of 50% reduction in condom use among PrEP users (risk compensation) was estimated.ResultsScreening and treating PrEP users for HCV every 12 or 6-months decreases HCV incidence by 67·3% (uncertainty range 52·7-79·2%) or 70·2% (57·1-80·8%), respectively, increasing to 75·4% (59·0-88·6%) or 78·8% (63·9-90·4%) if HIV-diagnosed MSM are also screened at same frequencies. Risk compensation reduces these latter projections by <10%. To reduce HCV incidence by 90% by 2030 without risk compensation, HIV-negative non-PrEP users require screening every 5·6 (3·8-9·2) years if MSM on PrEP and HIV-diagnosed MSM are screened every 6-months, shortening to 4·4 (3·1-6·6) years with risk compensation. For 25·0% PrEP coverage, the HCV elimination target can be reached without screening HIV-negative MSM not on PrEP, irrespective of risk compensation.InterpretationAt low PrEP coverage, increased screening of all MSM is required to achieve the WHO HCV-elimination targets for MSM in the UK, whereas at higher PrEP coverage this is possible through just screening HIV-diagnosed MSM and PrEP users.

Project description:ImportanceEvidence on HIV preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) among Chinese men who have sex with men (MSM) is critical to guide its large-scale implementation in low- and middle-income countries.ObjectiveTo evaluate incident HIV infection, adherence, safety, and changes in sexual behaviors among MSM using daily PrEP (D-PrEP) and event-driven PrEP (ED-PrEP) in 4 cities in China.Design, setting, and participantsThis nonrandomized controlled trial was conducted among HIV-seronegative MSM from December 11, 2018, to November 30, 2020, in Beijing, Shenyang, Chongqing, and Shenzhen. Participants self-chose D-PrEP or ED-PrEP regimens at baseline and could switch regimens during the 12-month study period. HIV-negative MSM who declined to initiate PrEP (nonusers) in the same cities joined a separate parallel prospective cohort and served as control individuals.InterventionsPrEP consisted of coformulated tenofovir disoproxil fumarate, 300 mg, and emtricitabine, 200 mg.Main outcomes and measuresThe main outcome was incident HIV infection. Poisson regression was used to obtain the HIV incidence rate ratio (IRR).ResultsA total of 1530 MSM were included in the analysis (median age, 30 [IQR, 25-37] years). At baseline, 520 MSM chose D-PrEP (median age, 29 [IQR, 25-35] years) and 503 chose ED-PrEP (median age, 29 [IQR, 25-36] years). The median HIV Risk Index score was 18 (IQR, 12-22) among D-PrEP users and 18 (IQR, 11-22) among ED-PrEP users. Among 507 PrEP nonusers, the median age was 33 (IQR, 27-43) years, and the median HIV Risk Index score was 12 (IQR, 7-18). Although PrEP users had more baseline behaviors associated with HIV risk, the HIV incidence was lower among all PrEP users (adjusted IRR, 0.09 [95% CI, 0.04-0.21]), ED-PrEP users (adjusted IRR, 0.05 [95% CI, 0.01-0.22]), and D-PrEP users (adjusted IRR, 0.12 [95% CI, 0.04-0.33]) compared with PrEP nonusers. There was no difference in HIV incidence between D-PrEP users and ED-PrEP users (IRR, 0.33 [95% CI, 0.06-2.04]). Event-driven PrEP users consumed 40% fewer tablets than D-PrEP users during the study period. Adherence, defined as the proportion of self-reported days with sexual intercourse in which PrEP was taken according to prescription of at least 90%, increased over time among ED-PrEP users (from 57.4% to 77.8%; P < .001 for trend) and decreased over time among D-PrEP users (from 75.1% to 72.1%; P = .02 for trend). Daily PrEP users reported fewer adverse events than ED-PrEP users (193 of 520 [37.1%] vs 241 of 503 [47.9%]).Conclusions and relevanceThe findings of this study suggest that D-PrEP and ED-PrEP regimens are associated with lower incidence of HIV and a good safety profile among high-risk MSM in China.Trial registrationChinese Clinical Trial Registry number: ChiCTR-IIN-17013762.

Project description:A recent randomized, controlled trial showed that daily oral preexposure chemoprophylaxis (PrEP) was effective for HIV prevention in men who have sex with men (MSM). The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recently provided interim guidance for PrEP in MSM at high risk for HIV. Previous studies did not reach a consistent estimate of its cost-effectiveness.To estimate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of PrEP in MSM in the United States.Dynamic model of HIV transmission and progression combined with a detailed economic analysis.Published literature.MSM aged 13 to 64 years in the United States.Lifetime.Societal.PrEP was evaluated in both the general MSM population and in high-risk MSM and was assumed to reduce infection risk by 44% on the basis of clinical trial results.New HIV infections, discounted quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and costs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios.Initiating PrEP in 20% of MSM in the United States would reduce new HIV infections by an estimated 13% and result in a gain of 550,166 QALYs over 20 years at a cost of $172,091 per QALY gained. Initiating PrEP in a larger proportion of MSM would prevent more infections but at an increasing cost per QALY gained (up to $216,480 if all MSM receive PrEP). Preexposure chemoprophylaxis in only high-risk MSM can improve cost-effectiveness. For MSM with an average of 5 partners per year, PrEP costs approximately $50,000 per QALY gained. Providing PrEP to all high-risk MSM for 20 years would cost $75 billion more in health care-related costs than the status quo and $600,000 per HIV infection prevented, compared with incremental costs of $95 billion and $2 million per infection prevented for 20% coverage of all MSM.PrEP in the general MSM population would cost less than $100,000 per QALY gained if the daily cost of antiretroviral drugs for PrEP was less than $15 or if PrEP efficacy was greater than 75%.When examining PrEP in high-risk MSM, the investigators did not model a mix of low- and high-risk MSM because of lack of data on mixing patterns.PrEP in the general MSM population could prevent a substantial number of HIV infections, but it is expensive. Use in high-risk MSM compares favorably with other interventions that are considered cost-effective but could result in annual PrEP expenditures of more than $4 billion.National Institute on Drug Abuse, Department of Veterans Affairs, and National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.

Dataset Information

Elimination prospects of the Dutch HIV epidemic among men who have sex with men in the era of preexposure prophylaxis.

Publications

Elimination prospects of the Dutch HIV epidemic among men who have sex with men in the era of preexposure prophylaxis.

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