Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: GBD 2017 SDG Collaborators
PROVIDER: S-EPMC6227911 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:BackgroundRapid demographic, epidemiological, and nutritional transitons have brought a pressing need to track progress in adolescent health. Here, we present country-level estimates of 12 headline indicators from the Lancet Commission on adolescent health and wellbeing, from 1990 to 2016.MethodsIndicators included those of health outcomes (disability-adjusted life-years [DALYs] due to communicable, maternal, and nutritional diseases; injuries; and non-communicable diseases); health risks (tobacco smoking, binge drinking, overweight, and anaemia); and social determinants of health (adolescent fertility; completion of secondary education; not in education, employment, or training [NEET]; child marriage; and demand for contraception satisfied with modern methods). We drew data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016, International Labour Organisation, household surveys, and the Barro-Lee education dataset.FindingsFrom 1990 to 2016, remarkable shifts in adolescent health occurred. A decrease in disease burden in many countries has been offset by population growth in countries with the poorest adolescent health profiles. Compared with 1990, an additional 250 million adolescents were living in multi-burden countries in 2016, where they face a heavy and complex burden of disease. The rapidity of nutritional transition is evident from the 324·1 million (18%) of 1·8 billion adolescents globally who were overweight or obese in 2016, an increase of 176·9 million compared with 1990, and the 430·7 million (24%) who had anaemia in 2016, an increase of 74·2 million compared with 1990. Child marriage remains common, with an estimated 66 million women aged 20-24 years married before age 18 years. Although gender-parity in secondary school completion exists globally, prevalence of NEET remains high for young women in multi-burden countries, suggesting few opportunities to enter the workforce in these settings.InterpretationAlthough disease burden has fallen in many settings, demographic shifts have heightened global inequalities. Global disease burden has changed little since 1990 and the prevalence of many adolescent health risks have increased. Health, education, and legal systems have not kept pace with shifting adolescent needs and demographic changes. Gender inequity remains a powerful driver of poor adolescent health in many countries.FundingAustralian National Health and Medical Research Council, and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
| S-EPMC6429986 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Kidney cancer globally accounts for more than 131,000 deaths each year and has been found to place a large economic burden on society. However, there are no recent articles on the burden of kidney cancer across the world. The aim of this study was to present a status report on the incidence, mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) associated with kidney cancer in 195 countries, from 1990 to 2017. Vital registration and cancer registry data (total of 23,660 site-years) were used to generate the estimates. Mortality was estimated first and the incidence and DALYs were calculated based on the estimated mortality values. All estimates were presented as counts and age-standardised rates per 100,000 population. The estimated rates were calculated by age, sex and according to the Socio-Demographic Index (SDI). In 2017, kidney cancer accounted for 393.0 thousand (95% UI: 371.0-404.6) incident cases, 138.5 thousand (95% UI: 128.7-142.5) deaths and 3.3 million (95% UI: 3.1-3.4) DALYs globally. The global age-standardised rates for the incidence, deaths and DALY were 4.9 (95% UI: 4.7-5.1), 1.7 (95% UI: 1.6-1.8) and 41.1 (95% UI: 38.7-42.5), respectively. Uruguay [15.8 (95% UI: 13.6-19.0)] and Bangladesh [1.5 (95% UI: 1.0-1.8)] had highest and lowest age-standardised incidence rates, respectively. The age-standardised death rates varied substantially from 0.47 (95% UI: 0.34-0.58) in Bangladesh to 5.6 (95% UI: 4.6-6.1) in the Czech Republic. Incidence and mortality rates were higher among males, than females, across all age groups, with the highest rates for both sexes being observed in the 95+ age group. Generally, positive associations were found between each country's age-standardised DALY rate and their corresponding SDI. The considerable burden of kidney cancer was attributable to high body mass index (18.5%) and smoking (16.6%) in both sexes. There are large inter-country differences in the burden of kidney cancer and it is generally higher in countries with a high SDI. The findings from this study provide much needed information for those in each country that are making health-related decisions about priority areas, resource allocation, and the effectiveness of prevention programmes. The results of our study also highlight the need for renewed efforts to reduce exposure to the kidney cancer risk factors and to improve the prevention and the early detection of this disease.
| S-EPMC7431911 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BACKGROUND:The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), adopted by all United Nations (UN) member states in 2015, established a set of bold and ambitious health-related targets to achieve by 2030. Understanding China's progress toward these targets is critical to improving population health for its 1.4 billion people. METHODS AND FINDINGS:We used estimates from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2016, national surveys and surveillance data from China, and qualitative data. Twenty-eight of the 37 indicators included in the GBD Study 2016 were analyzed. We developed an attainment index of health-related SDGs, a scale of 0-100 based on the values of indicators. The projection model is adjusted based on the one developed by the GBD Study 2016 SDG collaborators. We found that China has achieved several health-related SDG targets, including decreasing neonatal and under-5 mortality rates and the maternal mortality ratios and reducing wasting and stunting for children. However, China may only achieve 12 out of the 28 health-related SDG targets by 2030. The number of target indicators achieved varies among provinces and municipalities. In 2016, among the seven measured health domains, China performed best in child nutrition and maternal and child health and reproductive health, with the attainment index scores of 93.0 and 91.8, respectively, followed by noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) (69.4), road injuries (63.6), infectious diseases (63.0), environmental health (62.9), and universal health coverage (UHC) (54.4). There are daunting challenges to achieve the targets for child overweight, infectious diseases, NCD risk factors, and environmental exposure factors. China will also have a formidable challenge in achieving UHC, particularly in ensuring access to essential healthcare for all and providing adequate financial protection. The attainment index of child nutrition is projected to drop to 80.5 by 2025 because of worsening child overweight. The index of NCD risk factors is projected to drop to 38.8 by 2025. Regional disparities are substantial, with eastern provinces generally performing better than central and western provinces. Sex disparities are clear, with men at higher risk of excess mortality than women. The primary limitations of this study are the limited data availability and quality for several indicators and the adoption of "business-as-usual" projection methods. CONCLUSION:The study found that China has made good progress in improving population health, but challenges lie ahead. China has substantially improved the health of children and women and will continue to make good progress, although geographic disparities remain a great challenge. Meanwhile, China faced challenges in NCDs, mental health, and some infectious diseases. Poor control of health risk factors and worsening environmental threats have posed difficulties in further health improvement. Meanwhile, an inefficient health system is a barrier to tackling these challenges among such a rapidly aging population. The eastern provinces are predicted to perform better than the central and western provinces, and women are predicted to be more likely than men to achieve these targets by 2030. In order to make good progress, China must take a series of concerted actions, including more investments in public goods and services for health and redressing the intracountry inequities.
| S-EPMC6863528 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BACKGROUND:The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), adopted by all United Nations (UN) member states in 2015, established a set of bold and ambitious health-related targets to achieve by 2030. Understanding China's progress toward these targets is critical to improving population health for its 1.4 billion people. METHODS AND FINDINGS:We used estimates from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2016, national surveys and surveillance data from China, and qualitative data. Twenty-eight of the 37 indicators included in the GBD Study 2016 were analyzed. We developed an attainment index of health-related SDGs, a scale of 0-100 based on the values of indicators. The projection model is adjusted based on the one developed by the GBD Study 2016 SDG collaborators. We found that China has achieved several health-related SDG targets, including decreasing neonatal and under-5 mortality rates and the maternal mortality ratios and reducing wasting and stunting for children. However, China may only achieve 12 out of the 28 health-related SDG targets by 2030. The number of target indicators achieved varies among provinces and municipalities. In 2016, among the seven measured health domains, China performed best in child nutrition and maternal and child health and reproductive health, with the attainment index scores of 93.0 and 91.8, respectively, followed by noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) (69.4), road injuries (63.6), infectious diseases (63.0), environmental health (62.9), and universal health coverage (UHC) (54.4). There are daunting challenges to achieve the targets for child overweight, infectious diseases, NCD risk factors, and environmental exposure factors. China will also have a formidable challenge in achieving UHC, particularly in ensuring access to essential healthcare for all and providing adequate financial protection. The attainment index of child nutrition is projected to drop to 80.5 by 2025 because of worsening child overweight. The index of NCD risk factors is projected to drop to 38.8 by 2025. Regional disparities are substantial, with eastern provinces generally performing better than central and western provinces. Sex disparities are clear, with men at higher risk of excess mortality than women. The primary limitations of this study are the limited data availability and quality for several indicators and the adoption of "business-as-usual" projection methods. CONCLUSION:The study found that China has made good progress in improving population health, but challenges lie ahead. China has substantially improved the health of children and women and will continue to make good progress, although geographic disparities remain a great challenge. Meanwhile, China faced challenges in NCDs, mental health, and some infectious diseases. Poor control of health risk factors and worsening environmental threats have posed difficulties in further health improvement. Meanwhile, an inefficient health system is a barrier to tackling these challenges among such a rapidly aging population. The eastern provinces are predicted to perform better than the central and western provinces, and women are predicted to be more likely than men to achieve these targets by 2030. In order to make good progress, China must take a series of concerted actions, including more investments in public goods and services for health and redressing the intracountry inequities.
| S-EPMC7340487 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Achieving the 17 United Nations sustainable development goals (SDGs) in China largely depends on the transition of cities toward sustainable development. However, significant knowledge gaps exist in evaluating the SDG index at the city scale and in understanding how to simulate pathways to achieve the 17 SDGs for Chinese cities by 2030. This study aimed to quantify the SDG index of 285 Chinese cities and developed a forecasting model to simulate the performance of each SDG in each city until 2030 using varied scenarios. The results indicated that although the SDG index in Chinese cities increased by 33.97% during 2005-2016, Chinese cities, which continued their past paths, achieved an average of only five SDGs by 2030. To promote the joint achievement of all SDGs, we designed different paths for all SDGs of each of the 285 cities and simulated their SDG index until 2030. Under the scenarios, 216 Chinese cities (75.79%) could achieve 9-13 more SDGs in 2030 and the overall SDG index can improve from 74.57 in 2030 to 97.49 (target score 100) by adopting more intensive path adjustment. We lastly determined a cost-effective path for each SDG of each city to promote joint achievement of all SDGs by 2030. The proposed simulation model and cost-effective path serve as a foundation for other countries to simulate SDG progress and develop pathways for achieving SDGs in the future.
| S-EPMC9382565 | biostudies-literature
Project description: Not available
| S-EPMC5603800 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundPancreatitis is a critical public health problem, and the burden of pancreatitis is increasing. We report the rates and trends of the prevalence, incidence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for pancreatitis at the global, regional, and national levels in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017, stratified by sex, age, and sociodemographic index (SDI).MethodsData on pancreatitis were available from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017. Numbers and age-standardized prevalence, incidence, and YLDs' rates per 100,000 population were estimated through a systematic analysis of modeled data from the 2017 GBD study. Both acute and chronic pancreatitis are being modeled separately in the GBD 2017; however, our data show acute and chronic pancreatitis together. Estimates were reported with uncertainty intervals (UIs).ResultsGlobally, in 2017, the age-standardized rates were 76.2 (95% UIs 68.9 to 83.4), 20.6 (19.2 to 22.1), and 4.5 (2.3 to 7.6) per 100,000 population for the point prevalence, incidence, and YLDs, respectively. From 1990 to 2017, the percent changes in the age-standardized prevalence and YLDs rates increased, whereas the age-standardized incidence rate decreased. The global prevalence increased with age up to 60-64 years and 44-49 years in females and males, respectively, and then decreased, with no significant difference between females and males. The global prevalence rate increased with age, peaking in the 95+ age group, with no difference between sexes. Generally, positive correlation between age-standardized YLDs and SDIs at the regional and national levels was observed. Slovakia (297.7 [273.4 to 325.3]), Belgium (274.3 [242.6 to 306.5]), and Poland (266.7 [248.2 to 284.4]) had the highest age-standardized prevalence rates in 2017. Taiwan (Province of China) (104.2% [94.8 to 115.2%]), Maldives (72.4% [66.5 to 79.2%]), and Iceland (64.8% [57.2 to 72.9%]) had the largest increases in age-standardized prevalence rates from 1990 to 2017.ConclusionsPancreatitis is a major public health issue worldwide. The age-standardized prevalence and YLDs rates increased, but the age-standardized incidence rate decreased from 1990 to 2017. Improving the quality of pancreatitis health data in all regions and countries is strongly recommended for better monitoring the burden of pancreatitis.
| S-EPMC7726906 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundStatistical data on the incidence, mortality, and burden of breast cancer and the relevant risk factors are valuable for policy-making. We aimed to estimate breast cancer incidence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) by country, gender, age group, and social-demographic status between 1990 and 2017.MethodsWe extracted breast cancer data from the 2017 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study from 1990 through 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Data about the number of breast cancer incident cases, deaths, DALYs, and the age-standardized rates were collected. We also estimated the risk factors attributable to breast cancer deaths and DALYs using the comparative risk assessment framework of the GBD study.ResultsIn 2017, the global incidence of breast cancer increased to 1,960,681 cases. The high social-development index (SDI) quintile included the highest number of breast cancer death cases. Between 2007 and 2017, the ASDR of breast cancer declined globally, especially in high SDI and high middle SDI countries. The related DALYs were 17,708,600 in 2017 with high middle SDI quintile as the highest contributor. Of the deaths and DALYs, alcohol use was the greatest contributor in most GBD regions and other contributors included high body mass index (BMI) and high fasting plasma glucose.ConclusionThe increasing global breast cancer burden is mainly observed in lower SDI countries; in higher SDI countries, the breast cancer burden tends to be relieving. Therefore, steps against attributable risk factors should be taken to reduce breast cancer burden in lower SDI countries.
| S-EPMC6925497 | biostudies-literature
Project description:To provide comprehensive estimates of the global, regional, and national burden of infertility from 1990 to 2017, using findings from a 2017 study on the global burden of disease (GBD), we assessed the burden of infertility in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017. DisMod-MR 2.1 is a Bayesian meta-regression method that estimates non-fatal outcomes using sparse and heterogeneous epidemiological data. Globally, the age-standardized prevalence rate of infertility increased by 0.370% per year for females and 0.291% per year for males from 1990 to 2017. Additionally, age-standardized disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) of infertility increased by 0.396% per year for females and 0.293% per year for males during the observational period. An increasing trend to these burden estimates was observed throughout the all socio-demographic index (SDI) countries. Interestingly, we found that high SDI countries had the lowest level of prevalence and DALYs in both genders. However, the largest increasing trend was observed in high-SDI countries for females. By contrast, low-SDI countries had the largest increasing trend in males. Negative associations were observed between these burden estimates and the SDI level. The global disease burden of infertility has been increasing throughout the period from 1990 to 2017.
| S-EPMC6932903 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BACKGROUND:The burden of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is rising globally, with substantial variation in levels and trends of disease in different countries and regions. Understanding these geographical differences is crucial for formulating effective strategies for preventing and treating IBD. We report the prevalence, mortality, and overall burden of IBD in 195 countries and territories between 1990 and 2017, based on data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017. METHODS:We modelled mortality due to IBD using a standard Cause of Death Ensemble model including data mainly from vital registrations. To estimate the non-fatal burden, we used data presented in primary studies, hospital discharges, and claims data, and used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, to ensure consistency between measures. Mortality, prevalence, years of life lost (YLLs) due to premature death, years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were estimated. All of the estimates were reported as numbers and rates per 100 000 population, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UI). FINDINGS:In 2017, there were 6·8 million (95% UI 6·4-7·3) cases of IBD globally. The age-standardised prevalence rate increased from 79·5 (75·9-83·5) per 100 000 population in 1990 to 84·3 (79·2-89·9) per 100 000 population in 2017. The age-standardised death rate decreased from 0·61 (0·55-0·69) per 100 000 population in 1990 to 0·51 (0·42-0·54) per 100 000 population in 2017. At the GBD regional level, the highest age-standardised prevalence rate in 2017 occurred in high-income North America (422·0 [398·7-446·1] per 100 000) and the lowest age-standardised prevalence rates were observed in the Caribbean (6·7 [6·3-7·2] per 100 000 population). High Socio-demographic Index (SDI) locations had the highest age-standardised prevalence rate, while low SDI regions had the lowest age-standardised prevalence rate. At the national level, the USA had the highest age-standardised prevalence rate (464·5 [438·6-490·9] per 100 000 population), followed by the UK (449·6 [420·6-481·6] per 100 000). Vanuatu had the highest age-standardised death rate in 2017 (1·8 [0·8-3·2] per 100 000 population) and Singapore had the lowest (0·08 [0·06-0·14] per 100 000 population). The total YLDs attributed to IBD almost doubled over the study period, from 0·56 million (0·39-0·77) in 1990 to 1·02 million (0·71-1·38) in 2017. The age-standardised rate of DALYs decreased from 26·5 (21·0-33·0) per 100 000 population in 1990 to 23·2 (19·1-27·8) per 100 000 population in 2017. INTERPRETATION:The prevalence of IBD increased substantially in many regions from 1990 to 2017, which might pose a substantial social and economic burden on governments and health systems in the coming years. Our findings can be useful for policy makers developing strategies to tackle IBD, including the education of specialised personnel to address the burden of this complex disease. FUNDING:Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
| S-EPMC7026709 | biostudies-literature