Dataset Information

Google Search Trends Predicting Disease Outbreaks: An Analysis from India.

ABSTRACT:

Objectives

Prompt detection is a cornerstone in the control and prevention of infectious diseases. The Integrated Disease Surveillance Project of India identifies outbreaks, but it does not exactly predict outbreaks. This study was conducted to assess temporal correlation between Google Trends and Integrated Disease Surveillance Programme (IDSP) data and to determine the feasibility of using Google Trends for the prediction of outbreaks or epidemics.

Methods

The Google search queries related to malaria, dengue fever, chikungunya, and enteric fever for Chandigarh union territory and Haryana state of India in 2016 were extracted and compared with presumptive form data of the IDSP. Spearman correlation and scatter plots were used to depict the statistical relationship between the two datasets. Time trend plots were constructed to assess the correlation between Google search trends and disease notification under the IDSP.

Results

Temporal correlation was observed between the IDSP reporting and Google search trends. Time series analysis of the Google Trends showed strong correlation with the IDSP data with a lag of -2 to -3 weeks for chikungunya and dengue fever in Chandigarh (r > 0.80) and Haryana (r > 0.70). Malaria and enteric fever showed a lag period of -2 to -3 weeks with moderate correlation.

Conclusions

Similar results were obtained when applying the results of previous studies to specific diseases, and it is considered that many other diseases should be studied at the national and sub-national levels.

SUBMITTER: Verma M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6230529 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Google Search Trends Predicting Disease Outbreaks: An Analysis from India.

Verma Madhur M Kishore Kamal K Kumar Mukesh M Sondh Aparajita Ravi AR Aggarwal Gaurav G Kathirvel Soundappan S

Healthcare informatics research 20181031 4

<h4>Objectives</h4>Prompt detection is a cornerstone in the control and prevention of infectious diseases. The Integrated Disease Surveillance Project of India identifies outbreaks, but it does not exactly predict outbreaks. This study was conducted to assess temporal correlation between Google Trends and Integrated Disease Surveillance Programme (IDSP) data and to determine the feasibility of using Google Trends for the prediction of outbreaks or epidemics.<h4>Methods</h4>The Google search quer ...[more]

PMID: 30443418

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Project description:BackgroundSince the beginning of the new coronavirus pandemic, there has been much information about the disease and the virus has been in the spotlight, shared and commented upon on the Internet. However, much of this information is infodemics and can interfere with the advancement of the disease and that way that populations act. Thus, Brazil is a country that requires attention, as despite the fact that in almost two years of pandemic it has shown a devastating numbers of deaths and number of cases, and generates false, distorted and malicious news about the pandemic. This work intends to understand the attitudes of the Brazilian population using infodemic queries from the Google Trends search tool and social and income variables.MethodsData from infodemic research carried out on Google Trends, between January 1, 2020 and June 30, 2021, with socioeconomic data, such as income and education, were unified in a single database: standardization and exploratory and multivalued techniques based on grouping were used in the study.ResultsIn the analysis of the search trend of infodemic terms, it is clear that the categories of Prevention and Beliefs should stand out in Brazil, where there is a diverse culture. It is followed by the COVID-19 Treatment category, with treatments that were not those recommended by the authorities. Income transfer programs and information on socioeconomic variables did not have much impact on infodemic surveys, but it was observed that states where President Bolsonaro has more supporters had researched more infodemic information.ConclusionsIn a country as geographically large as Brazil, it is important that political authorities go to great lengths to disseminate reliable information and monitor the infodemic in the media and on the internet. It was concluded that the denial of the pandemic and the influence of political leaders influenced the search for infodemic information, contributing to a disorganization in the control of the disease and prevention measures.

Project description:BackgroundIn the absence of vaccines and established treatments, nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) are fundamental tools to control coronavirus disease (COVID-19) transmission. NPIs require public interest to be successful. In the United States, there is a lack of published research on the factors that influence public interest in COVID-19. Using Google Trends, we examined the US level of public interest in COVID-19 and how it correlated to testing and with other countries.ObjectiveThe aim of this study was to determine how public interest in COVID-19 in the United States changed over time and the key factors that drove this change, such as testing. US public interest in COVID-19 was compared to that in countries that have been more successful in their containment and mitigation strategies.MethodsIn this retrospective study, Google Trends was used to analyze the volume of internet searches within the United States relating to COVID-19, focusing on dates between December 31, 2019, and March 24, 2020. The volume of internet searches related to COVID-19 was compared to that in other countries.ResultsThroughout January and February 2020, there was limited search interest in COVID-19 within the United States. Interest declined for the first 21 days of February. A similar decline was seen in geographical regions that were later found to be experiencing undetected community transmission in February. Between March 9 and March 12, 2020, there was a rapid rise in search interest. This rise in search interest was positively correlated with the rise of positive tests for SARS-CoV-2 (6.3, 95% CI -2.9 to 9.7; P<.001). Within the United States, it took 52 days for search interest to rise substantially after the first positive case; in countries with more successful outbreak control, search interest rose in less than 15 days.ConclusionsContainment and mitigation strategies require public interest to be successful. The initial level of COVID-19 public interest in the United States was limited and even decreased during a time when containment and mitigation strategies were being established. A lack of public interest in COVID-19 existed in the United States when containment and mitigation policies were in place. Based on our analysis, it is clear that US policy makers need to develop novel methods of communicating COVID-19 public health initiatives.

Dataset Information

Google Search Trends Predicting Disease Outbreaks: An Analysis from India.

Objectives

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Google Search Trends Predicting Disease Outbreaks: An Analysis from India.

Similar Datasets

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