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Getting What We Pay For: How Do Risk-Based Payments to Medicare Advantage Plans Compare with Alternative Measures of Beneficiary Health Risk?

ABSTRACT: OBJECTIVE:To estimate the relative health risk of Medicare Advantage (MA) beneficiaries compared to those in Traditional Medicare (TM). DATA SOURCES/STUDY SETTING:Medicare claims and enrollment records for the sample of beneficiaries enrolled in Part D between 2008 and 2015. STUDY DESIGN:We assigned therapeutic classes to Medicare beneficiaries based on their prescription drug utilization. We then regressed nondrug health spending for TM beneficiaries in 2015 on demographic and therapeutic class identifiers for 2014 and used coefficients from this regression to predict relative risk of both MA and TM beneficiaries. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS:Based on prescription drug utilization data, beneficiaries enrolled in MA in 2015 had 6.9 percent lower health risk than beneficiaries in TM, but differences based on coded diagnoses suggested MA beneficiaries were 6.2 percent higher risk. The relative health risk based on drug usage of MA beneficiaries compared to those in TM increased by 3.4 p.p. from 2008 to 2015, while the relative risk using diagnoses increased 9.8 p.p. CONCLUSIONS:Our results add to a growing body of evidence suggesting MA receives favorable, or, at worst, neutral selection. If MA beneficiaries are no healthier and no sicker than similar beneficiaries in TM, then payments to MA plans exceed what is warranted based on their health status.

SUBMITTER: Jacobs PD

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6232441 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Getting What We Pay For: How Do Risk-Based Payments to Medicare Advantage Plans Compare with Alternative Measures of Beneficiary Health Risk?

Jacobs Paul D PD Kronick Richard R

Health services research 20180522 6

<h4>Objective</h4>To estimate the relative health risk of Medicare Advantage (MA) beneficiaries compared to those in Traditional Medicare (TM).<h4>Data sources/study setting</h4>Medicare claims and enrollment records for the sample of beneficiaries enrolled in Part D between 2008 and 2015.<h4>Study design</h4>We assigned therapeutic classes to Medicare beneficiaries based on their prescription drug utilization. We then regressed nondrug health spending for TM beneficiaries in 2015 on demographic ...[more]

PMID: 29790162

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Project description:BackgroundSince 2005, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) has required all Medicare Advantage (MA) plans to report prescribing rates of high risk medications (HRM).ObjectiveTo determine predictors of receipt of HRMs, as defined by the National Committee for Quality Assurance's "Drugs to Avoid in the Elderly" quality indicator, in a national sample of MA enrollees.Design and participantsRetrospective analysis of Healthcare Effectiveness Data and Information Set (HEDIS) data for 6,204,824 enrollees, aged 65 years or older, enrolled in 415 MA plans in 2009. To identify predictors of HRM use, we fit generalized linear models and modeled outcomes on the risk-difference scale.Main outcome measuresReceipt or non-receipt of one or two HRMs.Key resultsApproximately 21 % of MA enrollees received at least one HRM and 4.8 % received at least two. In fully adjusted models, females had a 10.6 (95 % CI: 10.0-11.2) higher percentage point rate of receipt than males, and residence in any of the Southern United States divisions was associated with a greater than 10 percentage point higher rate, as compared with the reference New England division. Higher rates were also observed among enrollees with low personal income (6.5 percentage points, 95 % CI: 5.5-7.5), relative to those without low income and those residing in areas in the lowest quintile of socioeconomic status (2.7 points, 95 % CI: 1.9-3.4) relative to persons residing in the highest quintile. Enrollees ? 85 years old, black enrollees, and other minority groups were less likely to receive these medications. Over 38 % of MA enrollees residing in the hospital referral region of Albany, Georgia received at least one HRM, a rate four times higher than the referral region with the lowest rate (Mason City, Iowa).ConclusionsUse of HRMs among MA enrollees varies widely by geographic region. Persons living in the Southern region of the U.S., whites, women, and persons of low personal income and socioeconomic status are more likely to receive HRMs.

Project description:Differences in the control of blood pressure, cholesterol, and glucose among the various racial and ethnic groups of Medicare enrollees may contribute to persistent disparities in health outcomes.Among elderly enrollees in Medicare Advantage health plans in 2011 who had hypertension (94,171 persons), cardiovascular disease (112,039), or diabetes (105,848), we compared the respective age-and-sex-adjusted proportions with blood pressure lower than 140/90 mm Hg, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels below 100 mg per deciliter (2.6 mmol per liter), and a glycated hemoglobin value of 9.0% or lower, according to race or ethnic group. Comparisons were made nationally and within regions and health plans, and changes since 2006 were assessed.Black enrollees in 2006 and 2011 were substantially less likely than white enrollees to have adequate control of blood pressure (adjusted absolute differences in proportions of enrollees in the 2 years, 7.9 percentage points and 10.3 percentage points, respectively), cholesterol (11.4 percentage points and 10.2 percentage points, respectively), and glycated hemoglobin (10.1 percentage points and 9.4 percentage points, respectively) (P<0.001 for all comparisons). Differing distributions of enrollees among health plans accounted for 39 to 59% of observed disparities in 2011. These differences persisted in 2011 in the Northeast, Midwest, and South (6.9 to 14.1 percentage points, P<0.001 for all comparisons) but were eliminated in the West for all three measures (<1.5 percentage points, P?0.15). Hispanic enrollees were less likely than whites in 2011 to have adequate control of blood pressure (adjusted difference, 1.6 percentage points), cholesterol (adjusted difference, 1.0 percentage points), and glycated hemoglobin (adjusted difference, 3.4 percentage points) (P?0.02 for all comparisons). Asians and Pacific Islanders were more likely than whites to have adequate control of blood pressure (difference, 4.4 percentage points; P<0.001) and cholesterol (5.5 percentage points, P<0.001) and had similar control of glycated hemoglobin (0.3 percentage points, P=0.63).Disparities in control of blood pressure, cholesterol, and glucose have not improved nationally for blacks in Medicare Advantage plans, but these disparities were eliminated in the West in 2011. (Funded by the National Institute on Aging.).

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Getting What We Pay For: How Do Risk-Based Payments to Medicare Advantage Plans Compare with Alternative Measures of Beneficiary Health Risk?

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Getting What We Pay For: How Do Risk-Based Payments to Medicare Advantage Plans Compare with Alternative Measures of Beneficiary Health Risk?

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