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Local meteorological conditions reroute a migration.

ABSTRACT: For migrating animals, realized migration routes and timing emerge from hundreds or thousands of movement decisions made along migration routes. Local weather conditions along migration routes continually influence these decisions, and even relatively small changes in en route weather may cumulatively result in major shifts in migration patterns. Here, we analysed satellite tracking data to score a discrete navigation decision by a large migratory bird as it navigated a high-latitude, 5000 m elevation mountain range to understand how those navigational decisions changed under different weather conditions. We showed that wind conditions in particular areas along the migration pathway drove a navigational decision to reroute a migration; conditions encountered predictably resulted in migrants routing either north or south of the mountain range. With abiotic conditions continuing to change globally, simple decisions, such as the one described here, might additively emerge into new, very different migration routes.

SUBMITTER: Eisaguirre JM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6235043 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Local meteorological conditions reroute a migration.

Eisaguirre Joseph M JM Booms Travis L TL Barger Christopher P CP McIntyre Carol L CL Lewis Stephen B SB Breed Greg A GA

Proceedings. Biological sciences 20181107 1890

For migrating animals, realized migration routes and timing emerge from hundreds or thousands of movement decisions made along migration routes. Local weather conditions along migration routes continually influence these decisions, and even relatively small changes in <i>en route</i> weather may cumulatively result in major shifts in migration patterns. Here, we analysed satellite tracking data to score a discrete navigation decision by a large migratory bird as it navigated a high-latitude, 500 ...[more]

PMID: 30404876

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Project description:BackgroundBefore effective vaccines become widely available, sufficient understanding of the impacts of climate, human movement and non-pharmaceutical interventions on the transmissibility of COVID-19 is needed but still lacking.MethodsWe collected by crowdsourcing a database of 11 003 COVID-19 cases from 305 cities outside Hubei Province from December 31, 2019 to April 27, 2020. We estimated the daily effective reproduction numbers (Rt ) of COVID-19 in 41 cities where the crowdsourced case data are comparable to the official surveillance data. The impacts of meteorological variables, human movement indices and nonpharmaceutical emergency responses on Rt were evaluated with generalized estimation equation models.FindingsThe median Rt was 0•46 (IQR: 0•37-0•87) in the northern cities, higher than 0•20 (IQR: 0•09-0•52) in the southern cities (p=0•004). A higher local transmissibility of COVID-19 was associated with a low temperature, a relative humidity near 70-75%, and higher intracity and intercity human movement. An increase in temperature from 0℃ to 20℃ would reduce Rt by 30% (95 CI 10-46%). A further increase to 30℃ would result in another 17% (95% CI 5-27%) reduction. An increase in relative humidity from 40% to 75% would raise the transmissibility by 47% (95% CI 9-97%), but a further increase to 90% would reduce the transmissibility by 12% (95% CI 4-19%). The decrease in intracity human movement as a part of the highest-level emergency response in China reduced the transmissibility by 36% (95% CI 27-44%), compared to 5% (95% CI 1-9%) for restricting intercity transport. Other nonpharmaceutical interventions further reduced Rt by 39% (95% CI 31-47%).InterpretationClimate can affect the transmission of COVID-19 where effective interventions are implemented. Restrictions on intracity human movement may be needed in places where other nonpharmaceutical interventions are unable to mitigate local transmission.FundingChina Mega-Project on Infectious Disease Prevention; U.S. National Institutes of Health and National Science Foundation.

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Local meteorological conditions reroute a migration.

Publications

Local meteorological conditions reroute a migration.

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