Dataset Information

Integrated Population Modeling Provides the First Empirical Estimates of Vital Rates and Abundance for Polar Bears in the Chukchi Sea.

ABSTRACT: Large carnivores are imperiled globally, and characteristics making them vulnerable to extinction (e.g., low densities and expansive ranges) also make it difficult to estimate demographic parameters needed for management. Here we develop an integrated population model to analyze capture-recapture, radiotelemetry, and count data for the Chukchi Sea subpopulation of polar bears (Ursus maritimus), 2008-2016. Our model addressed several challenges in capture-recapture studies for polar bears by including a multievent structure reflecting location and life history states, while accommodating state uncertainty. Female breeding probability was 0.83 (95% credible interval [CRI] = 0.71-0.90), with litter sizes of 2.18 (95% CRI = 1.71-2.82) for age-zero and 1.61 (95% CRI = 1.46-1.80) for age-one cubs. Total adult survival was 0.90 (95% CRI = 0.86-0.92) for females and 0.89 (95% CRI = 0.83-0.93) for males. Spring on-ice densities west of Alaska were 0.0030 bears/km2 (95% CRI = 0.0016-0.0060), similar to 1980s-era density estimates although methodological differences complicate comparison. Abundance of the Chukchi Sea subpopulation, derived by extrapolating density from the study area using a spatially-explicit habitat metric, was 2,937 bears (95% CRI = 1,552-5,944). Our findings are consistent with other lines of evidence suggesting the Chukchi Sea subpopulation has been productive in recent years, although it is uncertain how long this will continue given sea-ice loss due to climate change.

SUBMITTER: Regehr EV

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6235872 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Integrated Population Modeling Provides the First Empirical Estimates of Vital Rates and Abundance for Polar Bears in the Chukchi Sea.

Regehr Eric V EV Hostetter Nathan J NJ Wilson Ryan R RR Rode Karyn D KD Martin Michelle St MS Converse Sarah J SJ

Scientific reports 20181114 1

Large carnivores are imperiled globally, and characteristics making them vulnerable to extinction (e.g., low densities and expansive ranges) also make it difficult to estimate demographic parameters needed for management. Here we develop an integrated population model to analyze capture-recapture, radiotelemetry, and count data for the Chukchi Sea subpopulation of polar bears (Ursus maritimus), 2008-2016. Our model addressed several challenges in capture-recapture studies for polar bears by incl ...[more]

PMID: 30429493

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Project description:The Arctic Ocean is undergoing rapid transformation toward a seasonally ice-free ecosystem. As ice-adapted apex predators, polar bears (Ursus maritimus) are challenged to cope with ongoing habitat degradation and changes in their prey base driven by food-web response to climate warming. Knowledge of polar bear response to environmental change is necessary to understand ecosystem dynamics and inform conservation decisions. In the southern Beaufort Sea (SBS) of Alaska and western Canada, sea ice extent has declined since satellite observations began in 1979 and available evidence suggests that the carrying capacity of the SBS for polar bears has trended lower for nearly two decades. In this study, we investigated the population dynamics of polar bears in Alaska's SBS from 2001 to 2016 using a multistate Cormack-Jolly-Seber mark-recapture model. States were defined as geographic regions, and we used location data from mark-recapture observations and satellite-telemetered bears to model transitions between states and thereby explain heterogeneity in recapture probabilities. Our results corroborate prior findings that the SBS subpopulation experienced low survival from 2003 to 2006. Survival improved modestly from 2006 to 2008 and afterward rebounded to comparatively high levels for the remainder of the study, except in 2012. Abundance moved in concert with survival throughout the study period, declining substantially from 2003 and 2006 and afterward fluctuating with lower variation around an average of 565 bears (95% Bayesian credible interval [340, 920]) through 2015. Even though abundance was comparatively stable and without sustained trend from 2006 to 2015, polar bears in the Alaska SBS were less abundant over that period than at any time since passage of the U.S. Marine Mammal Protection Act. The potential for recovery is likely limited by the degree of habitat degradation the subpopulation has experienced, and future reductions in carrying capacity are expected given current projections for continued climate warming.

Project description:UnlabelledHigh-throughput sequencing (HTS) is revolutionizing environmental surveys of microbial diversity in the three domains of life by providing detailed information on which taxa are present in microbial assemblages. However, it is still unclear how the relative abundance of specific taxa gathered by HTS correlates with cell abundances. Here, we quantified the relative cell abundance of 6 picoeukaryotic taxa in 13 planktonic samples from 6 European coastal sites using epifluorescence microscopy on tyramide signal amplification-fluorescence in situ hybridization preparations. These relative abundance values were then compared with HTS data obtained in three separate molecular surveys: 454 sequencing of the V4 region of the 18S ribosomal DNA (rDNA) using DNA and RNA extracts (DNA-V4 and cDNA-V4) and Illumina sequencing of the V9 region (cDNA-V9). The microscopic and molecular signals were generally correlated, indicating that a relative increase in specific 18S rDNA was the result of a large proportion of cells in the given taxa. Despite these positive correlations, the slopes often deviated from 1, precluding a direct translation of sequences to cells. Our data highlighted clear differences depending on the nucleic acid template or the 18S rDNA region targeted. Thus, the molecular signal obtained using cDNA templates was always closer to relative cell abundances, while the V4 and V9 regions gave better results depending on the taxa. Our data support the quantitative use of HTS data but warn about considering it as a direct proxy of cell abundances.ImportanceDirect studies on marine picoeukaryotes by epifluorescence microscopy are problematic due to the lack of morphological features and due to the limited number and poor resolution of specific phylogenetic probes used in fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) routines. As a consequence, there is an increasing use of molecular methods, including high-throughput sequencing (HTS), to study marine microbial diversity. HTS can provide a detailed picture of the taxa present in a community and can reveal diversity not evident using other methods, but it is still unclear what the meaning of the sequence abundance in a given taxon is. Our aim is to investigate the correspondence between the relative HTS signal and relative cell abundances in selected picoeukaryotic taxa. Environmental sequencing provides reasonable estimates of the relative abundance of specific taxa. Better results are obtained when using RNA extracts as the templates, while the region of 18S ribosomal DNA had different influences depending on the taxa assayed.

Dataset Information

Integrated Population Modeling Provides the First Empirical Estimates of Vital Rates and Abundance for Polar Bears in the Chukchi Sea.

Publications

Integrated Population Modeling Provides the First Empirical Estimates of Vital Rates and Abundance for Polar Bears in the Chukchi Sea.

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