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Implications of survey effort on estimating demographic parameters of a long-lived marine top predator.

ABSTRACT: Effective management of wildlife populations rely on knowledge of their abundance, survival, and reproductive rates. Maintaining long-term studies capable of estimating demographic parameters for long-lived, slow-reproducing species is challenging. Insights into the effects of research intensity on the statistical power to estimate demographic parameters are limited. Here, we investigate implications of survey effort on estimating abundance, home range sizes, and reproductive output of Indo-Pacific bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops aduncus), using a 3-year subsample of a long-term, capture-recapture study off Bunbury, Western Australia. Photo-identification on individual dolphins was collected following Pollock's Robust Design, where seasons were defined as "primary periods", each consisting of multiple "secondary periods." The full dataset consisted of 12 primary periods and 72 secondary periods, resulting in the study area being surveyed 24 times/year. We simulated reduced survey effort by randomly removing one, two, or three secondary periods per primary period. Capture-recapture models were used to assess the effect of survey intensity on the power to detect trends in population abundance, while individual dolphin sighting histories were used to assess the ability to conduct home range analyses. We used sighting records of adult females and their calving histories to assess survey effort on quantifying reproductive output. A 50% reduction in survey effort resulted in (a) up to a 36% decline in population abundance at the time of detection; (b) a reduced ability to estimate home range sizes, by increasing the time for individuals to be sighted on ?30 occasions (an often-used metric for home range analyses) from 7.74 to 14.32 years; and (c) 33%, 24%, and 33% of annual calving events across three years going undocumented, respectively. Results clearly illustrate the importance of survey effort on the ability to assess demographic parameters with clear implications for population viability analyses, population forecasting, and conservation efforts to manage human-wildlife interactions.

SUBMITTER: Symons J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6238146 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Implications of survey effort on estimating demographic parameters of a long-lived marine top predator.

Symons John J Sprogis Kate R KR Bejder Lars L

Ecology and evolution 20181003 21

Effective management of wildlife populations rely on knowledge of their abundance, survival, and reproductive rates. Maintaining long-term studies capable of estimating demographic parameters for long-lived, slow-reproducing species is challenging. Insights into the effects of research intensity on the statistical power to estimate demographic parameters are limited. Here, we investigate implications of survey effort on estimating abundance, home range sizes, and reproductive output of Indo-Paci ...[more]

PMID: 30464819

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Project description:1. Body condition plays a fundamental role in many ecological and evolutionary processes at a variety of scales and across a broad range of animal taxa. An understanding of how body condition changes at fine spatial and temporal scales as a result of interaction with the environment provides necessary information about how animals acquire resources. 2. However, comparatively little is known about intra- and interindividual variation of condition in marine systems. Where condition has been studied, changes typically are recorded at relatively coarse time-scales. By quantifying how fine-scale interaction with the environment influences condition, we can broaden our understanding of how animals acquire resources and allocate them to body stores. 3. Here we used a hierarchical Bayesian state-space model to estimate the body condition as measured by the size of an animal's lipid store in two closely related species of marine predator that occupy different hemispheres: northern elephant seals (Mirounga angustirostris) and southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina). The observation model linked drift dives to lipid stores. The process model quantified daily changes in lipid stores as a function of the physiological condition of the seal (lipid:lean tissue ratio, departure lipid and departure mass), its foraging location, two measures of behaviour and environmental covariates. 4. We found that physiological condition significantly impacted lipid gain at two time-scales - daily and at departure from the colony - that foraging location was significantly associated with lipid gain in both species of elephant seals and that long-term behavioural phase was associated with positive lipid gain in northern and southern elephant seals. In northern elephant seals, the occurrence of short-term behavioural states assumed to represent foraging were correlated with lipid gain. Lipid gain was a function of covariates in both species. Southern elephant seals performed fewer drift dives than northern elephant seals and gained lipids at a lower rate. 5. We have demonstrated a new way to obtain time series of body condition estimates for a marine predator at fine spatial and temporal scales. This modelling approach accounts for uncertainty at many levels and has the potential to integrate physiological and movement ecology of top predators. The observation model we used was specific to elephant seals, but the process model can readily be applied to other species, providing an opportunity to understand how animals respond to their environment at a fine spatial scale.

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Implications of survey effort on estimating demographic parameters of a long-lived marine top predator.

Publications

Implications of survey effort on estimating demographic parameters of a long-lived marine top predator.

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