Project description:Purpose: Despite advances in radical surgery and chemotherapy delivery, ovarian cancer is the most lethal gynecologic malignancy. Most of these patients are treated with platinum-based chemotherapies, but there is no biomarker model to guide their responses to these therapeutic agents. We have developed and independently tested our novel multivariate molecular predictors for forecasting patients' responses to individual drugs on a cohort of 58 ovarian cancer patients. Experimental Design: We adapted and applied the previously-published COXEN algorithm to develop molecular predictors for therapeutic responses of patients' tumors based on expression signatures derived from the NCI-60 in vitro drug activities and genomic expression data. Genome-wide candidate biomarkers were first triaged by examining expression patterns of frozen and formalin-fixed paraffin embedded (FFPE) tissue samples. We then identify initial drug sensitivity biomarkers for carboplatin and paclitaxel, respectively. These biomarkers were further narrowed by examining concordant expression patterns between cell lines and a historical set of ovarian cancer patients. Multivariate predictors were obtained from the NCI-60 cell lines and refined using historical patient cohorts. To independent validate these molecular predictors, we performed genome-wide profiling on FFPE samples of 58 ovarian cancer patients obtained prior to adjuvant chemotherapy. Results: Carboplatin predictor significantly stratified platinum sensitive and resistant patients (p = 0.019) with sensitivity = 93%, specificity = 33%, PPV = 65%, and NPV = 78%. Paclitaxel predictor also significantly stratified patients' responses (p = 0.033) with sensitivity = 96%, specificity = 26%, PPV = 61%, and NPV = 86%. The combination predictor for platinum-taxane combination demonstrated a significant survival difference between the predicted responders and nonresponders with median survival of 12.9 months vs. 8.1 months (p = 0.045). Conclusions: COXEN predictors successfully stratified platinum resistance and taxane response in this retrospective cohort, especially based on their FFPE tumor samples. Accurate prediction of chemotherapeutic response, especially to platinum agents is highly clinically relevant and could alter primary management of ovarian cancer.

Project description:Purpose: Despite advances in radical surgery and chemotherapy delivery, ovarian cancer is the most lethal gynecologic malignancy. Most of these patients are treated with platinum-based chemotherapies, but there is no biomarker model to guide their responses to these therapeutic agents. We have developed and independently tested our novel multivariate molecular predictors for forecasting patients' responses to individual drugs on a cohort of 58 ovarian cancer patients. Experimental Design: We adapted and applied the previously-published COXEN algorithm to develop molecular predictors for therapeutic responses of patients' tumors based on expression signatures derived from the NCI-60 in vitro drug activities and genomic expression data. Genome-wide candidate biomarkers were first triaged by examining expression patterns of frozen and formalin-fixed paraffin embedded (FFPE) tissue samples. We then identify initial drug sensitivity biomarkers for carboplatin and paclitaxel, respectively. These biomarkers were further narrowed by examining concordant expression patterns between cell lines and a historical set of ovarian cancer patients. Multivariate predictors were obtained from the NCI-60 cell lines and refined using historical patient cohorts. To independent validate these molecular predictors, we performed genome-wide profiling on FFPE samples of 58 ovarian cancer patients obtained prior to adjuvant chemotherapy. Results: Carboplatin predictor significantly stratified platinum sensitive and resistant patients (p = 0.019) with sensitivity = 93%, specificity = 33%, PPV = 65%, and NPV = 78%. Paclitaxel predictor also significantly stratified patients' responses (p = 0.033) with sensitivity = 96%, specificity = 26%, PPV = 61%, and NPV = 86%. The combination predictor for platinum-taxane combination demonstrated a significant survival difference between the predicted responders and nonresponders with median survival of 12.9 months vs. 8.1 months (p = 0.045). Conclusions: COXEN predictors successfully stratified platinum resistance and taxane response in this retrospective cohort, especially based on their FFPE tumor samples. Accurate prediction of chemotherapeutic response, especially to platinum agents is highly clinically relevant and could alter primary management of ovarian cancer. Gene expression data from 58 stage III-IV ovarian cancer patients treated with Carboplatin and Taxol agents

Project description:The National Institute for Environmental Health Sciences (NIEHS) is conducting an epidemiologic study (GuLF STUDY) to investigate the health of the workers and volunteers who participated from April to December of 2010 in the response and cleanup of the oil release after the Deepwater Horizon explosion in the Gulf of Mexico. The exposure assessment component of the study involves analyzing thousands of personal monitoring measurements that were collected during this effort. A substantial portion of these data has values reported by the analytic laboratories to be below the limits of detection (LOD). A simulation study was conducted to evaluate three established methods for analyzing data with censored observations to estimate the arithmetic mean (AM), geometric mean (GM), geometric standard deviation (GSD), and the 95th percentile (X0.95) of the exposure distribution: the maximum likelihood (ML) estimation, the β-substitution, and the Kaplan-Meier (K-M) methods. Each method was challenged with computer-generated exposure datasets drawn from lognormal and mixed lognormal distributions with sample sizes (N) varying from 5 to 100, GSDs ranging from 2 to 5, and censoring levels ranging from 10 to 90%, with single and multiple LODs. Using relative bias and relative root mean squared error (rMSE) as the evaluation metrics, the β-substitution method generally performed as well or better than the ML and K-M methods in most simulated lognormal and mixed lognormal distribution conditions. The ML method was suitable for large sample sizes (N ≥ 30) up to 80% censoring for lognormal distributions with small variability (GSD = 2-3). The K-M method generally provided accurate estimates of the AM when the censoring was <50% for lognormal and mixed distributions. The accuracy and precision of all methods decreased under high variability (GSD = 4 and 5) and small to moderate sample sizes (N < 20) but the β-substitution was still the best of the three methods. When using the ML method, practitioners are cautioned to be aware of different ways of estimating the AM as they could lead to biased interpretation. A limitation of the β-substitution method is the absence of a confidence interval for the estimate. More research is needed to develop methods that could improve the estimation accuracy for small sample sizes and high percent censored data and also provide uncertainty intervals.

Project description:Classical statistical methods for analyzing exposure data with values below the detection limits are well described in the occupational hygiene literature, but an evaluation of a Bayesian approach for handling such data is currently lacking. Here, we first describe a Bayesian framework for analyzing censored data. We then present the results of a simulation study conducted to compare the ?-substitution method with a Bayesian method for exposure datasets drawn from lognormal distributions and mixed lognormal distributions with varying sample sizes, geometric standard deviations (GSDs), and censoring for single and multiple limits of detection. For each set of factors, estimates for the arithmetic mean (AM), geometric mean, GSD, and the 95th percentile (X0.95) of the exposure distribution were obtained. We evaluated the performance of each method using relative bias, the root mean squared error (rMSE), and coverage (the proportion of the computed 95% uncertainty intervals containing the true value). The Bayesian method using non-informative priors and the ?-substitution method were generally comparable in bias and rMSE when estimating the AM and GM. For the GSD and the 95th percentile, the Bayesian method with non-informative priors was more biased and had a higher rMSE than the ?-substitution method, but use of more informative priors generally improved the Bayesian method's performance, making both the bias and the rMSE more comparable to the ?-substitution method. An advantage of the Bayesian method is that it provided estimates of uncertainty for these parameters of interest and good coverage, whereas the ?-substitution method only provided estimates of uncertainty for the AM, and coverage was not as consistent. Selection of one or the other method depends on the needs of the practitioner, the availability of prior information, and the distribution characteristics of the measurement data. We suggest the use of Bayesian methods if the practitioner has the computational resources and prior information, as the method would generally provide accurate estimates and also provides the distributions of all of the parameters, which could be useful for making decisions in some applications.

Dataset Information

Multivariate left-censored Bayesian model for predicting exposure using multiple chemical predictors.

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Multivariate left-censored Bayesian model for predicting exposure using multiple chemical predictors.

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