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Predicting acute kidney injury at hospital re-entry using high-dimensional electronic health record data.

ABSTRACT: Acute Kidney Injury (AKI), a sudden decline in kidney function, is associated with increased mortality, morbidity, length of stay, and hospital cost. Since AKI is sometimes preventable, there is great interest in prediction. Most existing studies consider all patients and therefore restrict to features available in the first hours of hospitalization. Here, the focus is instead on rehospitalized patients, a cohort in which rich longitudinal features from prior hospitalizations can be analyzed. Our objective is to provide a risk score directly at hospital re-entry. Gradient boosting, penalized logistic regression (with and without stability selection), and a recurrent neural network are trained on two years of adult inpatient EHR data (3,387 attributes for 34,505 patients who generated 90,013 training samples with 5,618 cases and 84,395 controls). Predictions are internally evaluated with 50 iterations of 5-fold grouped cross-validation with special emphasis on calibration, an analysis of which is performed at the patient as well as hospitalization level. Error is assessed with respect to diagnosis, race, age, gender, AKI identification method, and hospital utilization. In an additional experiment, the regularization penalty is severely increased to induce parsimony and interpretability. Predictors identified for rehospitalized patients are also reported with a special analysis of medications that might be modifiable risk factors. Insights from this study might be used to construct a predictive tool for AKI in rehospitalized patients. An accurate estimate of AKI risk at hospital entry might serve as a prior for an admitting provider or another predictive algorithm.

SUBMITTER: Weisenthal SJ

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6245516 | biostudies-literature | 2018

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Predicting acute kidney injury at hospital re-entry using high-dimensional electronic health record data.

Weisenthal Samuel J SJ Quill Caroline C Farooq Samir S Kautz Henry H Zand Martin S MS

PloS one 20181120 11

Acute Kidney Injury (AKI), a sudden decline in kidney function, is associated with increased mortality, morbidity, length of stay, and hospital cost. Since AKI is sometimes preventable, there is great interest in prediction. Most existing studies consider all patients and therefore restrict to features available in the first hours of hospitalization. Here, the focus is instead on rehospitalized patients, a cohort in which rich longitudinal features from prior hospitalizations can be analyzed. Ou ...[more]

PMID: 30458044

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Project description:ObjectiveTo determine whether electronic health record alerts for acute kidney injury would improve patient outcomes of mortality, dialysis, and progression of acute kidney injury.DesignDouble blinded, multicenter, parallel, randomized controlled trial.SettingSix hospitals (four teaching and two non-teaching) in the Yale New Haven Health System in Connecticut and Rhode Island, US, ranging from small community hospitals to large tertiary care centers.Participants6030 adult inpatients with acute kidney injury, as defined by the Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) creatinine criteria.InterventionsAn electronic health record based "pop-up" alert for acute kidney injury with an associated acute kidney injury order set upon provider opening of the patient's medical record.Main outcome measuresA composite of progression of acute kidney injury, receipt of dialysis, or death within 14 days of randomization. Prespecified secondary outcomes included outcomes at each hospital and frequency of various care practices for acute kidney injury.Results6030 patients were randomized over 22 months. The primary outcome occurred in 653 (21.3%) of 3059 patients with an alert and in 622 (20.9%) of 2971 patients receiving usual care (relative risk 1.02, 95% confidence interval 0.93 to 1.13, P=0.67). Analysis by each hospital showed worse outcomes in the two non-teaching hospitals (n=765, 13%), where alerts were associated with a higher risk of the primary outcome (relative risk 1.49, 95% confidence interval 1.12 to 1.98, P=0.006). More deaths occurred at these centers (15.6% in the alert group v 8.6% in the usual care group, P=0.003). Certain acute kidney injury care practices were increased in the alert group but did not appear to mediate these outcomes.ConclusionsAlerts did not reduce the risk of our primary outcome among patients in hospital with acute kidney injury. The heterogeneity of effect across clinical centers should lead to a re-evaluation of existing alerting systems for acute kidney injury.Trial registrationClinicalTrials.gov NCT02753751.

Project description:BackgroundA major problem in treating acute kidney injury (AKI) is that clinical criteria for recognition are markers of established kidney damage or impaired function; treatment before such damage manifests is desirable. Clinicians could intervene during what may be a crucial stage for preventing permanent kidney injury if patients with incipient AKI and those at high risk of developing AKI could be identified.ObjectiveIn this study, we evaluate a machine learning algorithm for early detection and prediction of AKI.DesignWe used a machine learning technique, boosted ensembles of decision trees, to train an AKI prediction tool on retrospective data taken from more than 300 000 inpatient encounters.SettingData were collected from inpatient wards at Stanford Medical Center and intensive care unit patients at Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center.PatientsPatients older than the age of 18 whose hospital stays lasted between 5 and 1000 hours and who had at least one documented measurement of heart rate, respiratory rate, temperature, serum creatinine (SCr), and Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS).MeasurementsWe tested the algorithm's ability to detect AKI at onset and to predict AKI 12, 24, 48, and 72 hours before onset.MethodsWe tested AKI detection and prediction using the National Health Service (NHS) England AKI Algorithm as a gold standard. We additionally tested the algorithm's ability to detect AKI as defined by the Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) guidelines. We compared the algorithm's 3-fold cross-validation performance to the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score for AKI identification in terms of area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC).ResultsThe algorithm demonstrated high AUROC for detecting and predicting NHS-defined AKI at all tested time points. The algorithm achieves AUROC of 0.872 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.867-0.878) for AKI detection at time of onset. For prediction 12 hours before onset, the algorithm achieves an AUROC of 0.800 (95% CI, 0.792-0.809). For 24-hour predictions, the algorithm achieves AUROC of 0.795 (95% CI, 0.785-0.804). For 48-hour and 72-hour predictions, the algorithm achieves AUROC values of 0.761 (95% CI, 0.753-0.768) and 0.728 (95% CI, 0.719-0.737), respectively.LimitationsBecause of the retrospective nature of this study, we cannot draw any conclusions about the impact the algorithm's predictions will have on patient outcomes in a clinical setting.ConclusionsThe results of these experiments suggest that a machine learning-based AKI prediction tool may offer important prognostic capabilities for determining which patients are likely to suffer AKI, potentially allowing clinicians to intervene before kidney damage manifests.

Project description:BackgroundAcute kidney injury is common in hospitalized patients, increases morbidity and mortality, and is under-recognized. To improve provider recognition, we previously developed an electronic alert system for acute kidney injury. To test the hypothesis that this electronic acute kidney injury alert could improve patient outcome, we designed a randomized controlled trial to test the effectiveness of this alert in hospitalized patients. The study design presented several methodologic, ethical, and statistical challenges.PurposeTo highlight the challenges faced and the solutions employed in the design and implementation of a clinical trial to determine whether the provision of an early electronic alert for acute kidney injury would improve outcomes in hospitalized patients. Challenges included how to randomize the delivery of the alert system and the ethical framework for waiving informed consent. Other methodologic challenges included the selection and statistical evaluation of our study outcome, a ranked-composite of a continuous covariate (creatinine) and two dichotomous outcomes (dialysis and death), and the use of the medical record as a source of trial data.MethodsWe have designed a randomized trial to assess the effectiveness of an electronic alert system for acute kidney injury. With broad inclusion criteria, and a waiver of informed consent, we enroll and randomize virtually every patient with acute kidney injury in our hospital.ResultsAs of 31 March 2014, we have enrolled 2373 patients of 2400 targeted. Pre-alert data demonstrated a strong association between severity of acute kidney injury and inpatient mortality with a range of 6.4% in those with mild, stage 1 acute kidney injury, to 29% among those with stage 3 acute kidney injury (p < 0.001). We judged that informed consent would undermine the scientific validity of the study and present harms that are out of proportion to the very low risk intervention.ConclusionOur study demonstrates the feasibility of designing an ethical randomized controlled trial of an early electronic alert for acute kidney injury without obtaining informed consent from individual participants. Our study outcome may serve as a model for other studies of acute kidney injury, insofar as our paradigm accounts for the effect that early death and dialysis have on assessment of acute kidney injury severity as defined by maximum achieved serum creatinine.

Dataset Information

Predicting acute kidney injury at hospital re-entry using high-dimensional electronic health record data.

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Predicting acute kidney injury at hospital re-entry using high-dimensional electronic health record data.

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