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Long-term outcomes following first short-term clinically important deterioration in COPD.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is characterized by varying trajectories of decline. Information regarding the prognostic value of preventing short-term clinically important deterioration (CID) in lung function, health status, or first moderate/severe exacerbation as a composite endpoint of worsening is needed. We evaluated post hoc the link between early CID and long-term adverse outcomes. METHODS:CID was defined as ?100 mL decrease in forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1), ?4-unit increase in St George's Respiratory Questionnaire (SGRQ) score from baseline, and/or a moderate/severe exacerbation during enrollment in two 3-year studies. Presence of CID was assessed at 6 months for the principal analysis (TORCH) and 12 months for the confirmatory analysis (ECLIPSE). Association between presence (+) or absence (-) of CID and long-term deterioration in FEV1, SGRQ, future risk of exacerbations, and all-cause mortality was assessed. RESULTS:In total, 2870 (54%; TORCH) and 1442 (73%; ECLIPSE) patients were CID+. At 36 months, in TORCH, CID+ patients (vs CID-) had sustained clinically significant worsening of FEV1 (-?117 mL; 95% confidence interval [CI]: -?134, -?100 mL; P?

SUBMITTER: Naya IP

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6245880 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Long-term outcomes following first short-term clinically important deterioration in COPD.

Naya Ian P IP Tombs Lee L Muellerova Hana H Compton Christopher C Jones Paul W PW

Respiratory research 20181120 1

<h4>Background</h4>Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is characterized by varying trajectories of decline. Information regarding the prognostic value of preventing short-term clinically important deterioration (CID) in lung function, health status, or first moderate/severe exacerbation as a composite endpoint of worsening is needed. We evaluated post hoc the link between early CID and long-term adverse outcomes.<h4>Methods</h4>CID was defined as ≥100 mL decrease in forced expiratory vo ...[more]

PMID: 30453972

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Project description:Background and aimsVarious prediction indices based on the single time point observation have been proposed in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), but little was known about disease trajectory as a predictor of future exacerbations. Our study explored the association between disease trajectory and future exacerbations, and validated the predictive value of the modified and simplified short-term clinically important deterioration (CID).MethodsThis study was a multicenter, prospective observational study. Patients with COPD were recruited into our study and followed up for 18 months. The modified CID (CID-C) was defined as a decrease of 100 mL in forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1), or suffering exacerbations, or increase of 2 units in COPD Assessment Test (CAT) during the first 6 months follow-up. Simplified CID was defined when excluding CAT from the CID-C model.ResultsA total of 127 patients were enrolled in our final analysis. Compared with patients without exacerbations during the period of the 6th to the 18th month, patients with exacerbations were more likely to have frequent short-term exacerbations in the first 6 months (2.14 versus 0.21, p < 0.001). The short-term exacerbations were the best predictor for future exacerbations [odds ratio (OR): 13.25; 95% confidence interval: 5.62-34.67; p < 0.001], followed by the history of exacerbation before study entry, short-term changes in FEV1 and CAT. CID-C and Simplified CID were both significantly associated with exacerbations (OR: 7.14 and 9.74, both p < 0.001). The receiver operating characteristic curves showed that the Simplified CID had slightly better predictive capacity for future exacerbation than CID-C (0.754 versus 0.695, p = 0.02).ConclusionDisease trajectory, including both the CID-C and the Simplified CID had significant predictive value for future exacerbations.The reviews of this paper are available via the supplemental material section.

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Long-term outcomes following first short-term clinically important deterioration in COPD.

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Long-term outcomes following first short-term clinically important deterioration in COPD.

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