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Characterising routes of H5N1 and H7N9 spread in China using Bayesian phylogeographical analysis.

ABSTRACT: Avian influenza H5N1 subtype has caused a global public health concern due to its high pathogenicity in poultry and high case fatality rates in humans. The recently emerged H7N9 is a growing pandemic risk due to its sustained high rates of human infections, and recently acquired high pathogenicity in poultry. Here, we used Bayesian phylogeography on 265 H5N1 and 371 H7N9 haemagglutinin sequences isolated from humans, animals and the environment, to identify and compare migration patterns and factors predictive of H5N1 and H7N9 diffusion rates in China. H7N9 diffusion dynamics and predictor contributions differ from H5N1. Key determinants of spatial diffusion included: proximity between locations (for H5N1 and H7N9), and lower rural population densities (H5N1 only). For H7N9, additional predictors included low avian influenza vaccination rates, low percentage of nature reserves and high humidity levels. For both H5N1 and H7N9, we found viral migration rates from Guangdong to Guangxi and Guangdong to Hunan were highly supported transmission routes (Bayes Factor?>?30). We show fundamental differences in wide-scale transmission dynamics between H5N1 and H7N9. Importantly, this indicates that avian influenza initiatives designed to control H5N1 may not be sufficient for controlling the H7N9 epidemic. We suggest control and prevention activities to specifically target poultry transportation networks between Central, Pan-Pearl River Delta and South-West regions.

SUBMITTER: Bui CM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6246557 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Characterising routes of H5N1 and H7N9 spread in China using Bayesian phylogeographical analysis.

Bui Chau M CM Adam Dillon C DC Njoto Edwin E Scotch Matthew M MacIntyre C Raina CR

Emerging microbes & infections 20181121 1

Avian influenza H5N1 subtype has caused a global public health concern due to its high pathogenicity in poultry and high case fatality rates in humans. The recently emerged H7N9 is a growing pandemic risk due to its sustained high rates of human infections, and recently acquired high pathogenicity in poultry. Here, we used Bayesian phylogeography on 265 H5N1 and 371 H7N9 haemagglutinin sequences isolated from humans, animals and the environment, to identify and compare migration patterns and fac ...[more]

PMID: 30459301

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Project description:The novel low-pathogenic avian influenza A H7N9 viruses (LPAI H7N9 viruses) have been a threat to public health since their emergence in 2013 because of the high rates of mortality and morbidity that they cause. Recently, highly pathogenic variants of these avian influenza A H7N9 viruses (HPAI H7N9 viruses) have emerged and caused human infections and outbreaks among poultry in mainland China. However, it is still unclear how the HPAI H7N9 virus was generated and how it evolved and spread in China. Here, we show that the ancestor virus of the HPAI H7N9 viruses originated in the Yangtze River Delta region and spread southward to the Pearl River Delta region, possibly through live poultry trade. After introduction into the Pearl River Delta region, the origin LPAI H7N9 virus acquired four amino acid insertions in the hemagglutinin (HA) protein cleavage site and mutated into the HPAI H7N9 virus in late May 2016. Afterward, the HPAI H7N9 viruses further reassorted with LPAI H7N9 or H9N2 viruses locally and generated multiple different genotypes. As of 14 July 2017, the HPAI H7N9 viruses had spread from Guangdong Province to at least 12 other provinces. The rapid geographical expansion and genetic evolution of the HPAI H7N9 viruses pose a great challenge not only to public health but also to poultry production. Effective control measures, including enhanced surveillance, are therefore urgently needed.IMPORTANCE The LPAI H7N9 virus has caused five outbreak waves in humans and was recently reported to have mutated into highly pathogenic variants. It is unknown how the HPAI H7N9 virus originated, evolved, and disseminated in China. In this study, we comprehensively analyzed the sequences of HPAI H7N9 viruses from 28 human and 21 environmental samples covering eight provinces in China that were taken from November 2016 to June 2017. The results show that the ancestor virus of the HPAI H7N9 viruses originated in the Yangtze River Delta region. However, the insertion of four amino acids into the HA protein cleavage site of an LPAI H7N9 virus occurred in late May 2016 in the Pearl River Delta region. The mutated HPAI H7N9 virus further reassorted with LPAI H7N9 or H9N2 viruses that were cocirculating in poultry. Considering the rapid geographical expansion of the HPAI H7N9 viruses, effective control measures are urgently needed.

Dataset Information

Characterising routes of H5N1 and H7N9 spread in China using Bayesian phylogeographical analysis.

Publications

Characterising routes of H5N1 and H7N9 spread in China using Bayesian phylogeographical analysis.

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