Dataset Information

Parameter sensitivity and identifiability for a biogeochemical model of hypoxia in the northern Gulf of Mexico.

ABSTRACT: Local sensitivity analyses and identifiable parameter subsets were used to describe numerical constraints of a hypoxia model for bottom waters of the northern Gulf of Mexico. The sensitivity of state variables differed considerably with parameter changes, although most variables were responsive to changes in parameters that influenced planktonic growth rates and less sensitive to physical or chemical parameters. Variation in sensitivity had a direct correspondence with identifiability, such that only small subsets of the complete parameter set had unique effects on the model output. Selecting parameters by decreasing sensitivity demonstrated that only eight of 51 total parameters had a sufficiently unique effect on model output for accurate calibration. As a result, parameter selection heuristics were used to identify parameters for model calibration that depended on combined effects on output, relative sensitivity of each parameter, and ecological categories for the biogeochemical equations. The calibrated zero-dimensional (0-D) unit of the hypoxia model had improved fit to the observed data if sensitive phytoplankton parameters were included in an identifiable subset. Extension of results to a three-dimensional grid of the Gulf of Mexico showed that sensitive parameters for the 0-D model translated to non-trivial changes in the areal estimates of hypoxia.

SUBMITTER: Beck MW

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6260961 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Parameter sensitivity and identifiability for a biogeochemical model of hypoxia in the northern Gulf of Mexico.

Beck Marcus W MW Lehrter John C JC Lowe Lisa L LL Jarvis Brandon M BM

Ecological modelling 20171101

Local sensitivity analyses and identifiable parameter subsets were used to describe numerical constraints of a hypoxia model for bottom waters of the northern Gulf of Mexico. The sensitivity of state variables differed considerably with parameter changes, although most variables were responsive to changes in parameters that influenced planktonic growth rates and less sensitive to physical or chemical parameters. Variation in sensitivity had a direct correspondence with identifiability, such that ...[more]

PMID: 30505065

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Project description:We sampled Thaumarchaeota populations in the northern Gulf of Mexico, including shelf waters under the Mississippi River outflow plume that are subject to recurrent hypoxia. Data from this study allowed us to: (1) test the hypothesis that Thaumarchaeota would be abundant in this region; (2) assess phylogenetic composition of these populations for comparison with other regions; (3) compare the efficacy of quantitative PCR (qPCR) based on primers for 16S rRNA genes (rrs) with primers for genes in the ammonia oxidation (amoA) and carbon fixation (accA, hcd) pathways; (4) compare distributions obtained by qPCR with the relative abundance of Thaumarchaeota rrs in pyrosequenced libraries; (5) compare Thaumarchaeota distributions with environmental variables to help us elucidate the factors responsible for the distributions; (6) compare the distribution of Thaumarchaeota with Nitrite-Oxidizing Bacteria (NOB) to gain insight into the coupling between ammonia and nitrite oxidation. We found up to 10(8)?copies?L(-1) of Thaumarchaeota rrs in our samples (up to 40% of prokaryotes) by qPCR, with maximum abundance in slope waters at 200-800?m. Thaumarchaeota rrs were also abundant in pyrosequenced libraries and their relative abundance correlated well with values determined by qPCR (r (2)?=?0.82). Thaumarchaeota populations were strongly stratified by depth. Canonical correspondence analysis using a suite of environmental variables explained 92% of the variance in qPCR-estimated gene abundances. Thaumarchaeota rrs abundance was correlated with salinity and depth, while accA abundance correlated with fluorescence and pH. Correlations of Archaeal amoA abundance with environmental variables were primer-dependent, suggesting differential responses of sub-populations to environmental variables. Bacterial amoA was at the limit of qPCR detection in most samples. NOB and Euryarchaeota rrs were found in the pyrosequenced libraries; NOB distribution was correlated with that of Thaumarchaeota (r (2)?=?0.49).

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Dataset Information

Parameter sensitivity and identifiability for a biogeochemical model of hypoxia in the northern Gulf of Mexico.

Publications

Parameter sensitivity and identifiability for a biogeochemical model of hypoxia in the northern Gulf of Mexico.

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