Dataset Information

Welfare effects of weather variability: Multi-country evidence from Africa south of the Sahara.

ABSTRACT: Climate change and weather variability pose serious threats to food and nutrition security as well as ecosystems, especially when livelihoods depend heavily on natural resources. This study examines the effect of weather variability (shock) occurring up to three planting and growing season prior on per capita monthly household expenditure in rural Tanzania, Uganda, and Ghana. The analyses combine monthly temperature (1950-2013) and precipitation (1981-2013) data with data from several rounds of household surveys conducted between 1998 and 2013. Substantial spatial and temporal heterogeneity is documented in the incidence of shocks, with effects dependent on both the study and lag period considered. Analysis of short panel data shows the cumulative effect of above-average precipitation on expenditure to be negative in Uganda -while positive in Tanzania-, but the relationship does not persist when pooling survey data spanning over a decade. The evidence from pooled data suggests a positive association between above-average temperature (heat wave) and expenditure in (historically cooler) Uganda, with the opposite effect observed in (the relatively warmer) Tanzania. For Ghana, the association between heat wave and expenditure is positive. There is no evidence of heterogeneous effects along several dimensions, except by agro-ecological condition. Further research into the effects of shocks on more direct outcomes-such as agricultural practices, yields, and dietary intake-is therefore recommended to shed light on possible impact pathways and appropriate localized adaptation strategies.

SUBMITTER: Haile B

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6261409 | biostudies-literature | 2018

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Welfare effects of weather variability: Multi-country evidence from Africa south of the Sahara.

Haile Beliyou B Signorelli Sara S Azzarri Carlo C Johnson Timothy T

PloS one 20181128 11

Climate change and weather variability pose serious threats to food and nutrition security as well as ecosystems, especially when livelihoods depend heavily on natural resources. This study examines the effect of weather variability (shock) occurring up to three planting and growing season prior on per capita monthly household expenditure in rural Tanzania, Uganda, and Ghana. The analyses combine monthly temperature (1950-2013) and precipitation (1981-2013) data with data from several rounds of ...[more]

PMID: 30485274

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Project description:To estimate the effects of weather conditions on welfare globally, cross-country comparisons need to rely on international poverty lines and comparable data sources at the micro-level. To this end, nationally representative household surveys can offer a useful instrument, also at the sub-national level. This study seeks to expand the existing knowledge on the determinants of poverty in Africa south of the Sahara (SSA), examining how long-term climatic conditions and year-specific weather shocks affect expenditure per capita. We take advantage of a novel and unique dataset combining consumption-based household surveys for 24 SSA countries -representative of more than half of the African population and two thirds of SSA- and geospatial information on agro-climatic conditions, market access and other spatial covariates of poverty. To our knowledge, it is the first time that a welfare-based, multidisciplinary, micro-level dataset with such wide spatial coverage has been assembled and examined. Our analysis relies on a linear and spatial model at the household- and district-level, respectively, both controlling for socio-economic, demographic, and geographic confounding factors. Results are consistent across econometric approaches, showing that living in more humid areas is positively associated with welfare, while the opposite occurs living in hotter areas, as existing literature shows. Flood shocks -defined as annual rainfall higher than one standard deviation from the 50-year average- are associated to a 35% decrease in total and food per-capita consumption and 17 percentage point increase in extreme poverty. On the other hand, extreme shortages of rain and heat shocks show an uncertain effect, even when estimates control for spatial correlation between welfare and weather conditions using the spatial error correction model. Given the heterogeneous effects of climatic events across SSA macro-regions, local-specific adaptation and mitigation strategies are suggested to help bringing households on a sustainable path.

Project description:BackgroundThe evidence and method are limited for the associations between mortality and temperature variability (TV) within or between days.ObjectivesWe developed a novel method to calculate TV and investigated TV-mortality associations using a large multicountry data set.MethodsWe collected daily data for temperature and mortality from 372 locations in 12 countries/regions (Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Japan, Moldova, South Korea, Spain, Taiwan, Thailand, the United Kingdom, and the United States). We calculated TV from the standard deviation of the minimum and maximum temperatures during the exposure days. Two-stage analyses were used to assess the relationship between TV and mortality. In the first stage, a Poisson regression model allowing over-dispersion was used to estimate the community-specific TV-mortality relationship, after controlling for potential confounders. In the second stage, a meta-analysis was used to pool the effect estimates within each country.ResultsThere was a significant association between TV and mortality in all countries, even after controlling for the effects of daily mean temperature. In stratified analyses, TV was still significantly associated with mortality in cold, hot, and moderate seasons. Mortality risks related to TV were higher in hot areas than in cold areas when using short TV exposures (0-1 days), whereas TV-related mortality risks were higher in moderate areas than in cold and hot areas when using longer TV exposures (0-7 days).ConclusionsThe results indicate that more attention should be paid to unstable weather conditions in order to protect health. These findings may have implications for developing public health policies to manage health risks of climate change.CitationGuo Y, Gasparrini A, Armstrong BG, Tawatsupa B, Tobias A, Lavigne E, Coelho MS, Pan X, Kim H, Hashizume M, Honda Y, Guo YL, Wu CF, Zanobetti A, Schwartz JD, Bell ML, Overcenco A, Punnasiri K, Li S, Tian L, Saldiva P, Williams G, Tong S. 2016. Temperature variability and mortality: a multi-country study. Environ Health Perspect 124:1554-1559; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP149.

Project description:BackgroundThe African continent hosts many industrial mining projects, and many more are planned due to recent prospecting discoveries and increasing demand for various minerals to promote a low-carbon future. The extraction of natural resources in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) represents an opportunity for economic development but also poses a threat to population health through rapid urbanisation and environmental degradation. Children could benefit from improved economic growth through various channels such as access to high-quality food, better sanitation, and clean water. However, mining can increase food insecurity and trigger local competition over safe drinking water. Child health can be threatened by exposure to mining-related air, noise, and water pollution. To assess the impact of mines on child health, we analyse socio-demographic, health, and mining data before and after several mining projects were commissioned in SSA.ResultsData of 90,951 children living around 81 mining sites in 23 countries in SSA were analysed for child mortality indicators, and 79,962 children from 59 mining areas in 18 SSA countries were analysed for diarrhoea, cough, and anthropometric indicators. No effects of the launch of new mining projects on overall under-five mortality were found (adjusted Odds Ratio (aOR): 0.88; 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 0.68-1.14). However, activation of mining projects reduced the mortality risk among neonates (0-30 days) by 45% (aOR: 0.55; 95% CI: 0.37-0.83) and risk for a child to develop diarrhoeal diseases by 32% (aOR: 0.68; 95% CI: 0,51-0.90). The timing analysis of observed changes showed that there is a significant decline in the risk for childhood diarrhoea (aOR: 0.69; 95% CI: 0.49-0.97), and the mean height-for-age z-scores by 28 percentage points, during the prospection and construction phase; i.e., within four years to the initiation of extraction activity. No effects were found for cough and weight-for-height.ConclusionThe results presented suggest that the impacts of mining on child health vary throughout the mine's life cycle. Mining development likely contributes positively to the income and livelihoods of the impacted communities in the initial years of mining operations, particularly the prospection and construction phase; these potential benefits are likely to be at least partially offset by food insecurity and environmental pollution during early and later mining stages, respectively. Further research is warranted to better understand these health impacts and to identify policies that can help sustain the positive initial health impacts of mining projects in the long term.

Project description:In African countries, antimicrobial resistance (AMR) issue remains pertinent. Despite this, little efforts have been made to assess the future veterinary prescribers on their knowledge, attitudes and practices (KAP) related to antimicrobial usage. This multi-country survey attempts to explore the KAP of future veterinarians on stewardship of antimicrobial and identify knowledge gaps. Eight veterinary schools participated from Nigeria, Sudan and South Africa. Data regarding perceptions and knowledge were analyzed using Chi-square χ2 test, Spearman's (Rho) Rank order correlation and factor analysis using principal component factoring extraction method. Fifty-two percent of the study participants were final year veterinary students, respectively, and majority (77.2%) had no previous knowledge of biomedical sciences. Majority age were 22-27 years (24.7 ± 2.8) 79% and multiple career fields post-graduation were preferred. Overall, poor perceptions and knowledge of antimicrobial stewardship were observed with variations among countries and only 36.3% (n = 123) of the students were confident in their ability to choose the ideal antimicrobial agents for a specific patient/group of animals. The majority of the final year students were confident of their knowledge regarding AMR (68%), making of Gram staining (69.2%) and in choosing the most ideal route for administering a specific antimicrobial (74.7%). The final year students had significantly (p < 0.05) higher confidence level for knowledge compared with the pre-final year students. Tetracyclines, penicillins, and sulphonamides represent the three most abused veterinary antimicrobials with similar ranking across countries. South African (69.7 ± 20.5) and Sudanese (68.1 ± 15.4) had significantly (p < 0.0001) higher mean scores compared to the Nigerian students (44.3 ± 6.8) in the student's ability to correctly match some specific antimicrobials against their classes but Nigerian students performed better in ranking antimicrobials. This survey revealed poor to average knowledge of antimicrobial stewardship among veterinary students with significant knowledge gaps across the countries. It is recommended that the relevant regulatory and standardization authorities should make concerted efforts and interventions to regularly review curricula to ensure the delivery of targeted formative and normative training, and improved lectures on antimicrobial usage and stewardship in order to improve the awareness and behaviors of future prescribers. The identified knowledge gaps of veterinary medical students on antimicrobial stewardship must be bridge to safeguard the future.

Dataset Information

Welfare effects of weather variability: Multi-country evidence from Africa south of the Sahara.

Publications

Welfare effects of weather variability: Multi-country evidence from Africa south of the Sahara.

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