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Information-theoretic models of deception: Modelling cooperation and diffusion in populations exposed to "fake news".

ABSTRACT: The modelling of deceptions in game theory and decision theory has not been well studied, despite the increasing importance of this problem in social media, public discourse, and organisational management. This paper presents an improved formulation of the extant information-theoretic models of deceptions, a framework for incorporating these models of deception into game and decision theoretic models of deception, and applies these models and this framework in an agent based evolutionary simulation that models two very common deception types employed in "fake news" attacks. The simulation results for both deception types modelled show, as observed empirically in many social systems subjected to "fake news" attacks, that even a very small population of deceivers that transiently invades a much larger population of non-deceiving agents can strongly alter the equilibrium behaviour of the population in favour of agents playing an always defect strategy. The results also show that the ability of a population of deceivers to establish itself or remain present in a population is highly sensitive to the cost of the deception, as this cost reduces the fitness of deceiving agents when competing against non-deceiving agents. Diffusion behaviours observed for agents exploiting the deception producing false beliefs are very close to empirically observed behaviours in social media, when fitted to epidemiological models. We thus demonstrate, using the improved formulation of the information-theoretic models of deception, that agent based evolutionary simulations employing the Iterated Prisoner's Dilemma can accurately capture the behaviours of a population subject to deception attacks introducing uncertainty and false perceptions, and show that information-theoretic models of deception have practical applications beyond trivial taxonomical analysis.

SUBMITTER: Kopp C

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6261583 | biostudies-literature | 2018

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Information-theoretic models of deception: Modelling cooperation and diffusion in populations exposed to "fake news".

Kopp Carlo C Korb Kevin B KB Mills Bruce I BI

PloS one 20181128 11

The modelling of deceptions in game theory and decision theory has not been well studied, despite the increasing importance of this problem in social media, public discourse, and organisational management. This paper presents an improved formulation of the extant information-theoretic models of deceptions, a framework for incorporating these models of deception into game and decision theoretic models of deception, and applies these models and this framework in an agent based evolutionary simulat ...[more]

PMID: 30485356

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Project description:Disinformation (fake news) is a major problem that affects modern populations, especially in an era when information can be spread from one corner of the world to another in just one click. The diffusion of misinformation becomes more problematic when it addresses issues related to health, as it can affect people at both the individual and population levels. Through the ideas proposed by cultural evolution theory, in this study, we seek to understand the dynamics of disseminating messages (cultural traits) with untrue content (maladaptive traits). For our investigation, we used the scenario caused by the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic as a model. The instability caused by the pandemic provides a good model for the study of adapted and maladaptive traits, as the information can directly affect individual and population fitness. Through data collected on the Twitter platform (259,176 tweets) and using machine learning techniques and web scraping, we built a predictive model to analyze the following questions: (1) Is false information more shared? (2) Is false information more adopted? (3) Do people with social prestige influence the dissemination of maladaptive traits of COVID-19? We observed that fake news features contained in messages with false information were shared and adopted as unblemished messages. We also observed that social prestige was not a determining factor for the diffusion of maladaptive traits. Even with the ability to allow connections between individuals participating in social media, some factors such as attachment to cultural traits and the formation of social bubbles can favor isolation and decrease connectivity between individuals. Consequently, in the scenario of isolation between groups and low connectivity between individuals, there is a reduction in cultural exchange between people, which interferes with the dynamics of the selection of cultural traits. Thus, maladaptive (harmful) traits are favored and maintained in the cultural system. We also argue that the local Brazilian cultural context can be a determining factor for maintaining maladaptive traits. We conclude that in an unstable (pandemic) scenario, the information transmitted on Twitter is not reliable in relation to the increase in fitness, which may occur because of the low cultural exchange promoted by the personalization of the social network and cultural context of the population.Supplementary informationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s42979-021-00836-w.

Project description:BackgroundProliferation of misinformation in digital news environments can harm society in a number of ways, but its dangers are most acute when citizens believe that false news is factually accurate. A recent wave of empirical research focuses on factors that explain why people fall for the so-called fake news. In this scoping review, we summarize the results of experimental studies that test different predictors of individuals' belief in misinformation.MethodsThe review is based on a synthetic analysis of 26 scholarly articles. The authors developed and applied a search protocol to two academic databases, Scopus and Web of Science. The sample included experimental studies that test factors influencing users' ability to recognize fake news, their likelihood to trust it or intention to engage with such content. Relying on scoping review methodology, the authors then collated and summarized the available evidence.ResultsThe study identifies three broad groups of factors contributing to individuals' belief in fake news. Firstly, message characteristics-such as belief consistency and presentation cues-can drive people's belief in misinformation. Secondly, susceptibility to fake news can be determined by individual factors including people's cognitive styles, predispositions, and differences in news and information literacy. Finally, accuracy-promoting interventions such as warnings or nudges priming individuals to think about information veracity can impact judgements about fake news credibility. Evidence suggests that inoculation-type interventions can be both scalable and effective. We note that study results could be partly driven by design choices such as selection of stimuli and outcome measurement.ConclusionsWe call for expanding the scope and diversifying designs of empirical investigations of people's susceptibility to false information online. We recommend examining digital platforms beyond Facebook, using more diverse formats of stimulus material and adding a comparative angle to fake news research.

Dataset Information

Information-theoretic models of deception: Modelling cooperation and diffusion in populations exposed to "fake news".

Publications

Information-theoretic models of deception: Modelling cooperation and diffusion in populations exposed to "fake news".

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