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Postoperative bleeding risk prediction for patients undergoing colorectal surgery.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:There is limited consensus regarding risk factors for postoperative bleeding. The objective of this work was to investigate the capability of machine learning techniques in combination with practice-based longitudinal electronic medical record data for identifying potential new risk factors for postoperative bleeding and predicting patients at high risk of postoperative bleeding. METHODS:A retrospective study was conducted for patients who underwent colorectal surgery 1998-2015 at a single tertiary referral center. Various predictors were extracted from electronic medical record. The outcome of interest was the occurrence of postoperative bleeding within 7 days of surgery. Logistic regression and gradient boosting machine models were trained. Area under the receiver operating curve and area under the precision recall curve were used to evaluate the performance to different models. RESULTS:Of 13,399 cases undergoing colorectal resection, 1,680 (12.5%) experienced postoperative bleeding. A total of 299 variables were evaluated. Logistic regression and gradient boosting machine models returned an area under the receiver operating curve of 0.735 and 0.822 and area under the precision recall curve of 0.287 and 0.423, respectively. In addition to well-known risk factors for postoperative bleeding, nutrition (ranked third), weakness (ranked fifth), patient mobility (ranked sixth), and activity level (ranked eighth) were found to be novel predictors in the gradient boosting machine model based on permutation importance. CONCLUSION:The study identified measures of functional capacity of patient as novel predictors of postoperative bleeding. The study found that risk of postoperative bleeding can be assessed, allowing for better use of human resources in addressing this important adverse event after surgery.

SUBMITTER: Chen D

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6263850 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Postoperative bleeding risk prediction for patients undergoing colorectal surgery.

Chen David D Afzal Naveed N Sohn Sunghwan S Habermann Elizabeth B EB Naessens James M JM Larson David W DW Liu Hongfang H

Surgery 20180720 6

<h4>Background</h4>There is limited consensus regarding risk factors for postoperative bleeding. The objective of this work was to investigate the capability of machine learning techniques in combination with practice-based longitudinal electronic medical record data for identifying potential new risk factors for postoperative bleeding and predicting patients at high risk of postoperative bleeding.<h4>Methods</h4>A retrospective study was conducted for patients who underwent colorectal surgery 1 ...[more]

PMID: 30033185

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Project description:Oxidative stress plays an important role in the development of colorectal cancer (CRC). This study is aimed at developing and validating a novel scoring system, based on oxidative stress indexes, for prognostic prediction in CRC patients. A retrospective analysis of 1422 CRC patients who underwent surgical resection between January 2013 and December 2017 was performed. These patients were randomly assigned to the training set (n = 1022) or the validation set (n = 400). Cox regression model was used to analyze the laboratory parameters. The CRC-Integrated Oxidative Stress Score (CIOSS) was developed from albumin (ALB), direct bilirubin (DBIL), and blood urea nitrogen (BUN), which were significantly associated with survival in CRC patients. Furthermore, a survival nomogram was generated by combining the CIOSS with other beneficial clinical characteristics. The CIOSS generated was as follows: 0.074 × albumin (g/L), -0.094 × bilirubin (μmol/L), and -0.099 × blood urea nitrogen (mmol/L), based on the multivariable Cox regression analysis. Using 50% (0.1025) and 85% (0.481) of CIOSS as cutoff values, three prognostically distinct groups were formed. Patients with high CIOSS experienced worse overall survival (OS) (hazard ratio [HR] = 4.33; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.80-6.68; P < 0.001) and worse disease-free survival (DFS) (HR = 3.02; 95% CI, 1.96-4.64; P < 0.001) compared to those with low CIOSS. This predictive nomogram had good calibration and discrimination. ROC analyses showed that the CIOSS possessed excellent performance (AUC = 0.818) in predicting DFS. The AUC of the OS nomogram based on CIOSS, TNM stage, T stage, and chemotherapy was 0.812, while that of the DFS nomogram based on CIOSS, T stage, and TNM stage was 0.855. Decision curve analysis showed that these two prediction models were clinically useful. CIOSS is a CRC-specific prognostic index based on the combination of available oxidative stress indexes. High CIOSS is a powerful indicator of poor prognosis. The CIOSS also showed better predictive performance compared to TNM stage in CRC patients.

Project description:BackgroundUlinastatin is a type of glycoprotein and a nonspecific wide-spectrum protease inhibitor like antifibrinolytic agent aprotinin. Whether Ulinastatin has similar beneficial effects on blood conservation in cardiac surgical patients as aprotinin remains undetermined. Therefore, a systematic review and meta-analysis were performed to evaluate the effects of Ulinastatin on perioperative bleeding and transfusion in patients who underwent cardiac surgery.MethodsElectronic databases were searched to identify all clinical trials comparing Ulinastatin with placebo/blank on postoperative bleeding and transfusion in patients undergoing cardiac surgery. Primary outcomes included perioperative blood loss, blood transfusion, postoperative re-exploration for bleeding. Secondary outcomes include perioperative hemoglobin level, platelet counts and functions, coagulation tests, inflammatory cytokines level, and so on. For continuous variables, treatment effects were calculated as weighted mean difference (WMD) and 95% confidential interval (CI). For dichotomous data, treatment effects were calculated as odds ratio and 95% CI. Statistical significance was defined as P < .05.ResultsOur search yielded 21 studies including 1310 patients, and 617 patients were allocated into Ulinastatin group and 693 into Control (placebo/blank) group. There was no significant difference in intraoperative bleeding volume, postoperative re-exploration for bleeding incidence, intraoperative red blood cell transfusion units, postoperative fresh frozen plasma transfusion volumes and platelet concentrates transfusion units between the 2 groups (all P > .05). Ulinastatin reduces postoperative bleeding (WMD = -0.73, 95% CI: -1.17 to -0.28, P = .001) and red blood cell (RBC) transfusion (WMD = -0.70, 95% CI: -1.26 to -0.14, P = .01), inhibits hyperfibrinolysis as manifested by lower level of postoperative D-dimer (WMD = -0.87, 95% CI: -1.34 to -0.39, P = .0003).ConclusionThis meta-analysis has found some evidence showing that Ulinastatin reduces postoperative bleeding and RBC transfusion in patients undergoing cardiac surgery. However, these findings should be interpreted rigorously. Further well-conducted trials are required to assess the blood-saving effects and mechanisms of Ulinastatin.

Project description:BACKGROUND:Postoperative ileus is a major complication for persons undergoing abdominal surgery. Daikenchuto, a Japanese traditional medicine (Kampo), is a drug that may reduce postoperative ileus. OBJECTIVES:To assess the efficacy and safety of Daikenchuto for reducing prolonged postoperative ileus in persons undergoing elective abdominal surgery. SEARCH METHODS:We searched the following databases on 3 July 2017: CENTRAL, MEDLINE, Embase, ICHUSHI, WHO (World Health Organization) International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (ICTRP), EU Crinical Trials registry (EU-CTR), UMIN Clinical Trials Registry (UMIN-CTR), ClinicalTrials.gov, The Japan Society for Oriental Medicine (JSOM), American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO), Society of American Gastrointestinal and Endscopic Surgeons (SAGES). We set no limitations on language or date of publication. SELECTION CRITERIA:We included randomised controlled trials (RCTs) comparing Daikenchuto with any control condition in adults, 18 years of age or older, undergoing elective abdominal surgery. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS:We applied standard methodological procedures expected by Cochrane. Two review authors independently reviewed the articles identified by literature searches, extracted data, and assessed risk of bias of the included studies using the Cochrane software Review Manager 5. MAIN RESULTS:We included seven RCTs with a total of 1202 participants. Overall, we judged the risk of bias as low in four studies and high in three studies. We are uncertain whether Daikenchuto reduced time to first flatus (mean difference (MD) -11.32 hours, 95% confidence interval (CI) -17.45 to -5.19; two RCTs, 83 participants; very low-quality evidence), or time to first bowel movement (MD -9.44 hours, 95% CI -22.22 to 3.35; four RCTs, 500 participants; very low-quality evidence) following surgery. There was little or no difference in time to resumption of regular solid food following surgery (MD 3.64 hours, 95% CI -24.45 to 31.74; two RCTs, 258 participants; low-quality evidence). There were no adverse events in either arm of the five RCTs that reported on drug-related adverse events (risk difference (RD) 0.00, 95% CI -0.02 to 0.02, 568 participants, low-quality evidence). We are uncertain of the effect of Daikenchuto on patient satisfaction (MD 0.09, 95% CI -0.19 to 0.37; one RCT, 81 participants; very low-quality of evidence). There was little or no difference in the incidence of any re-interventions for postoperative ileus before leaving hospital (risk ratio (RR) 0.99, 95% CI 0.06 to 15.62; one RCT, 207 participants; moderate-quality evidence), or length of hospital stay (MD -0.49 days, 95% CI -1.21 to 0.22; three RCTs, 292 participants; low-quality evidence). AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS:Evidence from current literature was unclear whether Daikenchuto reduced postoperative ileus in patients undergoing elective abdominal surgery, due to the small number of participants in the meta-analyses. Very low-quality evidence means we are uncertain whether Daikenchuto improved postoperative flatus or bowel movement. Further well-designed and adequately powered studies are needed to assess the efficacy of Daikenchuto.

Project description:The benefit results of postoperative tight glycemic control (TGC) were controversial and there was a lack of well-powered studies that support current guideline recommendations.The EMBASE, MEDLINE, and the Cochrane Library databases were searched utilizing the key words "Blood Glucose", "insulin" and "Postoperative Period" to retrieve all randomized controlled trials evaluating the benefits of postoperative TGC as compared to conventional glycemic control (CGC) in patients undergoing surgery.Fifteen studies involving 5053 patients were identified. As compared to CGC group, there were lower risks of total postoperative infection (9.4% vs. 15.8%; RR 0.586, 95% CI 0.504 to 0.680, p?<? 0.001) and wound infection (4.6% vs. 7.2%; RR 0.620, 95% CI 0.422 to 0.910, p?=?0.015) in TGC group. TGC also showed a lower risk of postoperative short-term mortality (3.8% vs. 5.4%; RR 0.692, 95% CI 0.527 to 0.909, p?=?0.008), but sensitivity analyses showed that the result was mainly influenced by one study. The patients in the TGC group experienced a significant higher rate of postoperative hypoglycemia (22.3% vs. 11.0%; RR 3.145, 95% CI 1.928 to 5.131, p?<? 0.001) and severe hypoglycemia (2.8% vs. 0.7%; RR 3.821, 95% CI 1.796 to 8.127, p?<? 0.001) as compared to CGC group. TGC showed less length of ICU stay (SMD, -?0.428 days; 95% CI, -?0.833 to -?0.022 days; p?=?0.039). However, TGC showed a neutral effect on neurological dysfunction (1.1% vs. 2.4%; RR 0.499, 95% CI 0.219 to 1.137, p?=?0.098), acute renal failure (3.3% vs. 5.4%, RR 0.610, 95% CI 0.359 to 1.038, p?=?0.068), duration of mechanical ventilation (p?=?0.201) and length of hospitalization (p?=?0.082).TGC immediately after surgery significantly reduces total postoperative infection rates and short-term mortality. However, it might limit conclusion regarding the efficacy of TGC for short-term mortality in sensitivity analyses. The patients in the TGC group experienced a significant higher rate of postoperative hypoglycemia. This study may suggest that TGC should be administrated under close glucose monitoring in patients undergoing surgery, especially in those with high postoperative infection risk.

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Postoperative bleeding risk prediction for patients undergoing colorectal surgery.

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Postoperative bleeding risk prediction for patients undergoing colorectal surgery.

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